Kuigi korrelatsioon ehitajatega on tugev, siis valmismaju (manufactured homes) tootvate ettevõtete aktsiad on rasketele turutingimustele paremini vastu pidanud. Alla on need küll müüdud, kuid paljud kauplevad juba paar kuud vahemikus.
Samas on see arusaadav, sest nende bilanssides ei ole maad ja püsiehitisi, mida oleks vaja alla hinnata. Siiski ei tähenda see, et kinnisvaraprobleemid sektorile mõju ei avaldaks. Kuigi kinnisvara langustsükkel on kestnud juba pikemat aega, peaks tehases valmivate majade tsükkel olema maas. Liiatigi muutuvad olemasolevad majad odavamaks ning vahe vähenemine kokkupandavate majadega on viimastele pigem kahjuks.
Lisaks on viimase kümne aasta jooksul kokkupandavate majade müügimahud pideavalt langenud, Cavco eelmise aasta aruande kohaselt müüdi 1998. aastal tööstuses 373000 ühikut, kuid 2006. aastaks oli see kukkunud 118000 peale. Põhjusena võib tuua finantseerimise keerukust ja on ilmselge, et selles osas pole praegu paranemist loota.
Tööstuse suurim börsil olev ettevõte on Champion Enterprices (CHB), mille USA müük on küll nõrk, kuid rahvusvahelise segmendi tulude kasv väga kiire. Ettevõte omab viite tehast Kanadas, kus olukord on USA omast parem. Viimase kvartali rahvusvahelise segmendi 182%-line tulude tõus kustutab igasugused shortimise mõtted isegi siis, kui muu seis nii roosiline ei paista.
Otsisin edasi ja ülejäänud sektoris tegutsevast neljast ettevõttest jäi lühikeseks müügi sõelale kaks ettevõtet: Cavco (CVCO) ja Skyline (SKY).
Cavco teatas oma majandusaasta kolmanda kvartali tulemused jaanuari lõpus ning 16%-lise tulude languse juures kukkus kasum 39%. Siiski suudeti teenida $1.3 miljonit kasumit, EPS oli $0.20. On kahtlane, kas ettevõte suudab järgmiste kvartalite jooksul kasumit kasvatada, nagu analüütikud seda näevad. Ei imestaks, kui langetaks isegi kahjumisse, sest turul on totaalne vaikus, lisaks on analüütikute prognoosidele alla jäädud neli viimast kvartalit.
Samas oli vähemalt juhtkond aasta alguse seisuga suhteliselt positiivselt meelestatud, vastu võeti otsus aktsiate tagasiostmise kohta. See aga mõjutab 2008. aasta EPSi ainult ca 4% ulatuses.
Cavco puhul on veel negatiivne, et tegutsetakse ka commercial construction segmendis, mille tsükkel on oluliselt maas muust turust. Mälu järgi öeldes kasvasid ärikinnisvara hinnad veel eelmise aasta viimases kvartalis (äkki eksin ja oli Q3) ja alles nüüd on tekkinud tõsisem ülepakkumine ja surve hindadele. Cavco tegutseb Arizona kõrval veel Nevadas ja Californias, mis on probleemide käes enam vaevlevad turud.
Palju parem pole seis ka Skyline’i puhul, mis lisakskokkupandavatele majadele müüb haagissuvilaid, mille puhul on müügimahtude tõusu rekordiliste naftahindade ja majanduse keerulise olukorra taustal raske oodata. Viimasel kvartalil on mõlema segmendi müük ka juba kukkunud ning langust võib prognoosida ka lähikvartaliteks. Siiski tasub SKY puhul ettevaatlikum olla, sest ettevõttel on bilansis raha $14 aktsia kohta ehk EV on sisuliselt pool turuväärtusest.
Kõige kindlam võimalus lühikeseks minna tundub siiski Cavco, aga graafikut vaadates on selge, et volatiilsust jagub piisavalt. Aktsia on ka üsna kallilt hinnatud ning negatiivset üllatust ei ole sisse arvestatud. Otsuse teeb siiski igaüks ise.
By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 3/4/2008 7:59 AM EST
Success is sweet and sweeter if long delayed and gotten through many struggles and defeats. --Amos Bronson Alcott
The bad news just keeps on coming. This morning it is chip giant Intel (INTC) that is cutting gross-margin expectations, and Citibank (C) which is looking at another $15 billion or so in subprime writeoffs.
For a while last week there was some hope that maybe the market was getting close to pricing in the worst, but this week it has become painfully obvious that the financial sector still doesn't have a handle on the extent of the damage that will be done by the credit contagion. Estimates at the major brokers and banks are still being cut. This morning, Wachovia (WB) cut estimates at Goldman, Morgan, Bear and Lehman.
Oil, gold and commodities continue their ascent, while the dollar struggles and the possibility of a 0.75% cut by the Fed at their next meeting fails to generate excitement.
The good news is that the bad news is so pervasive. When things are this sour, the worst does tend to get priced in, and even a little glimmer of hope can help produce a bounce. What produces tradable lows is the death of hope, and this news flow certainly is helping to kill the optimism out there.
While I believe we are getting negative enough to set us up for a little bounce, the bigger picture remains abysmal. We are destined to test those lows we saw back in January, and I wouldn't be surprised to actually see them fail and give us a real washout.
However, it is important to keep in mind that markets generally don't move in straight lines. Within the bigger downtrend, we are going to see some spikes and bounces, and we are now oversold and negative enough that we could get one here very soon.
The key to navigating this market is to make sure you respect the fact that we are in a downtrend and to be very clear as to your time frames. This is not the time to build longer-term positions. You may be able to find some tradable bounces, but keep those stops tight and time frames short. This market has a lot of work to do before we can even begin to consider the idea that a lasting bottom is in place.
---------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QSC +19.9% (approves 7 mln share buyback), , BITS +14.9%, SNTS +12.9%, TSL +9.2%, SUPG +8.6%, OVEN +7.6%, FNSR +5.3%, PRFT +5.0%, BEXP +4.9%, FLML +4.4%, MNKD +2.7%, IPCS +1.4%... Select gold stocks showing strength on higher spot prices: GFI +2.1%, AAUK +1.5%, AU +1.1%, AUY +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Other news: CHRD +14.2% (announces $25 mln stock repurchase authorization), BRL +10.6% (announces favorable ruling in Yasmin patent challenge), SGMS +6.5% (still checking), RAME +4.9% (says full year reserve replacement rate of 1500% with drilling and acquisition cost of $15 per boe), GCO +3.6% (announces agreement for termination of merger agreement and settlement of all litigation), FRPT +2.2% (announces the appointment of Michael Moody as Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairman), ESI +1.8% (Blum Capital discloses 8.4% stake in SC 13D filing), CPLA +1.6% (announces authorization of the repurchase of up to $50 mln of the co's common shares), AEM +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), JASO +1.4% and LDK +1.2% (up in sympathy with TSL)... Analyst upgrades: LLNW + 6.1% (upgraded to Hold at Jefferies), SKS + 4.5% (upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Bear Stearns), ETN + 3.8% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm and added to Conviction Buy List), ASIA + 2.9% (initiated with Buy at Kaufman), CAVM +2.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Thomas Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: JTX -21.1%, OMPI -15.7%, CLWR -13.4%, NCS -10.8%, BKS -10.0% (also downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), CCRN -9.1%, PMI -5.8%, XIN -5.6%, SLXP -5.3%, LF -5.2%, HMIN -4.4%, PBR -2.8%, SD -1.9%, AVAV -1.6%... Select technology stocks showing weakness following INTC cautious guidance: SNDK -5.0%, NOK -3.9%, ALU -3.1%, ERIC -2.7%, INTC -2.0% (lowers Q1 gross margin forecast due to lower NAND flash memory prices), AMD -1.0%... Select financial stocks showing weakness following multiple negative news stories: HBC -3.4%, C -2.8% (Gulf investors not enough to rescue Citigroup: Dubai - Reuters), UBS -2.3%, BCS -1.9% ('questioned over terrorist blacklist' - Daily Telegraph), BSC -1.1% and LEH -1.1% (Wachovia cuts estimates on BSC, LEH, MS and GS), MER -1.1%... Select chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: ACH -4.4%, LFC -3.9%, CHU -3.8%, PTR -3.1% (may build refinery in Singapore, according to paper - Reuters), CHA -2.8%, CN -2.2%... Other news: CTIC -30.2% (submits European MAA for Xyotax and announces that it will issue approx $51.7 mln of new 9% Convertible Senior Notes due 2012 ), VSE -10.2% (still checking), USBE -7.6% (still checking), CETV -5.3% (to offer $425 million of senior convertible notes), TMA -3.0% (Moody's downgrades Thornburg to Caa2 and downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC ), ASML -2.7% (still checking), SNY -1.9% (evaluating legal options on German court ruling - DJ)... Analyst downgrades: EOG -3.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), HWCC -3.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), TEX -2.9% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), BBY -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), ACC -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), NOVL -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), COP -1.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman).
FT Mergermarket reports borrowers whose properties are being foreclosed on are contesting those foreclosures in rising numbers, attorneys representing both mortgage servicers and homeowners told Debtwire. The trend could impact the performance of subprime-backed bonds, as foreclosures will take longer and be more costly, which could put downward pressure on recoveries. Already, the average foreclosure rate in the Markit ABX.HE 07-2 -- the most recent ABX index - is increasing at a significantly faster clip than the real-estate owned rate, something not seen in the earlier vintages. This may suggest that loans made during the final days of the mortgage boom (and the final days of their lenders) are experiencing extensive delays... Up until recently, only a small percentage of foreclosures have been contested, attorneys said. That was before foreclosures exploded, however. A recent research report from Bear Stearns estimates that by the end of this year, foreclosure starts will be in excess of 50% of existing single-family home sales. And as foreclosures in states such as Ohio, Florida and Nevada flood the courts, borrowers and their attorneys have begun finding ways to challenge foreclosures, and judges in several states have been sympathetic, said Alan Wolf, a partner with the Wolf Firm in Irvine, California, in comments made at a panel February 27 during the Mortgage Bankers Association National Mortgage Servicing Conference in New Orleans.
Mina seda prognoosi küll ei usu. Inflatsiooni arvestades oleks nafta peaaegu jummalamuidu käes. Võtke naftahind 22 a tagasi ehk 1986 ja vaadake, kas ainult 2x tõus on ikka reaalne!
Loen praegu üht huvitavat raamatut "Maailm suurfirmade haardes",selle põhjal liigub maailma rahvastik hukatuse poole.,kui jätkub senine globaliseerumine majanduses.Selleks et seda ei juhtuks peavad rahvad hakkama mõtlema,kuidas elada nii et ei toodetaks prügi.Selleks ajaks ei pruugi enam nafta olla põhi energiaallikas.Ennem hakkab puudust olema toidust,veest jne.Soovitan lugeda
Turud siis tõusevad jällekord AMBAC-i ümber käivast trallist. Pankade konsortsium peaks kohe kohe lahendusega välja tulema, kuid seni on võetud mõtlemisaega. Eks asjaolu, et turud tundusid juba veidi ülemüüdud annab tõusule rohkem tugevust.