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Rev Shark: 2010: A Year of Market Manipulation
12/31/2010 8:53 AM
"New Year's Day is every man's birthday."
-- Charles Lamb
It is the last day of trading in 2010, and it seems rather fitting that the trading this week has been similar to what occurred quite often during the year. The most notable characteristic of the market this past year was how strong our rallies were once they started. We just kept on running despite an increasing number of folks looking for a market top. It seems like almost everyone is trying to guess a top again right now, but the positive seasonality is holding us right near the highs.
Earlier this year, we had some weak action from April to August, but there were huge unrelenting uptrends from February through April and then from September to the end of the year, with one slight pullback. What was most surprising about these rallies is how persistent they were once they started. There were almost no pullbacks at all during the runs, and market players seemed to be constantly chasing in order to try to add long exposure.
The easiest mistake for traders to make this past year has been to underestimate this market. Given the very poor economic recovery, persistent high levels of unemployment and the extreme poor real estate market, it was very easy to be pessimistic about the market prospects. What we saw on Main Street just didn't matter to Wall Street very much.
Despite the economic woes on Main Street, many individual companies reported superb earnings this year. There was no sign at all of any major economic weakness during earnings season. Wall Street seemed to be in a totally different world than Main Street, and if you confused the two, it was very easy to find yourself exiting the market far too early as the uptrends just kept going and going.
It wasn't only generally good earnings that contributed to the markets' resilience this year. The Fed had an ongoing quantitative easing program, which is just a fancy way of saying they ran the printing press and flooded the economy with cheap money. With interest rates practically at zero and real estate acting very poorly, that money had few places to go but into the stock market.
Many market players have been complaining that the market no longer acts normally. Part of that is due to the increased dominance of high-frequency and computer trading, but another part of it is due to Permanent Open Market Operations of the Fed (POMO), which means that it is buying securities in the open market. There is an amazingly strong correlation between positive market days and days on which POMO takes place.
In summary, it has been a year marked by more manipulation and outside driving forces than usual. If you were overly logical and inclined toward pessimism, you probably had some difficulty.
At the close today, 2010 will be history, and we'll have a fresh start on Monday. The great thing about the market is that you can have a fresh start anytime you want. What happened yesterday or last week need not matter any longer. The New Year makes it especially easy to wipe the slate clean and to move forward without any of last year's baggage.
Today is the day to prepare for the New Year, and that is going to make for some very odd trading. Many market players have already closed the books on 2010, and we are going to see the hot-money players, who are enjoying some very good holiday trading this week.
We have some slight weakness to start the day and the rare-earth plays are pulling back, but the dollar is weaker and helping gold and commodities in the early going.
- The report states that MediaTech Capital Partners believes the earlier report in the UK Daily Mail about a $40+/shr offer from Sony is accurate.
Palju õnne euro puhul, Eesti!
Finance.yahoo.com Top Story 31. detsembri õhtul aastal 2010 - "Estonia enters new era with euro adoption"
Head vana-aasta lõppu kõigile!
Imax Corp Disney responds to press speculation, calls report of a bid for IMAX "pure fiction" - US financial press