Fed funds trade at 6.5%, above Fed's 2% target rate
Kinnisvarahindade langus jätkub:
July S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 y/y -16.3% vs -16.0% consensus, prior -15.9%.
This marks the seventh straight double digit decline (every month in 2008 so far) and the 18th straight decline on a monthly basis.
Saksamaa DAX -1.33%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.50%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.37%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.13%
Venemaa MICEX -2.68%
Poola WIG +0.04%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -4.12%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.76%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.18%
Tai Set 50 -0.79%
India Sensex +2.10%
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/30/2008 8:33 AM EDT
'It's not based on any particular data point ... We just wanted to choose a really large number.'
--U.S. Treasury spokeswoman when asked why $700 billion was used as the bailout number.
The Paulson "bailout" plan, which was touted as the only way to avoid financial disaster, provided it was quickly enacted, was rejected by politicians on Monday and helped to send the market down sharply.
The problem was that the proponents of the plan did a lousy job of selling it, and Main Street simply wasn't buying it. From the start, the plan was seen as a bailout of Wall Street rather than as a way to unfreeze credit and help individual consumers. Furthermore, the credibility of the strongest supporters of the plan, when it comes to economic predictions, is sketchy at best.
Now that the panicked attempt to sell the plan has failed, we are actually seeing a bit of a bounce in the market, as politicians go to work to more carefully craft a plan. Many are happy to see a more measured response, as opposed to the hysterical claims that the economy was about to go under.
Although some are happy over the defeat of the bailout bill, we continue to have some tremendous problems, as is evidenced by the credit market where things like the TED Spread and LIBOR are indicating unprecedented stress. There is no question that we still need to craft some remedies that will unclog the credit markets. If we don't do it fairly fast, there is going to be more downside to this market, but as someone once said, the problem with hurry is that it's so slow.
The political maneuvering that is taking place is enough to fill numerous books, as I'm sure it soon will, but the question for us to worry about is how to navigate this market. To a great degree, we are held hostage by the political debate right now. The only way to play this market is to try to gauge psychology. Forget valuations, fundaments and charts. It's all about emotions and that makes for some fast and frantic trading if you are going to play.
One thing about a day like Monday is that it is the type of action that tends to come near turning points. When emotions are that extreme, there is some capitulation taking place, and that can help to set the stage for a turn. Unfortunately, this environment is still so chaotic and so news-driven that we could easily fall quite a bit more even after Monday. There are few precedents for this sort of market action, and risks are extraordinarily high.
The bounce we are seeing to start the action this morning isn't making things any easier. After the pounding Monday, there are going to be folks looking for an escape into strength, but when we are down that huge, there is also likely to be some bargain hunting as well.
If you are going to trade, you have to keep it very short term. It is premature to build longer-term positions, although you can be sure that the same folks who have been calling bottoms all year are going to tell you once again that you should be building positions.
The scariest thing right now are the problems in the credit market that are not easily illustrated like the major stock market averages. Until that calms down, the stock market holds very high levels of risk. Keep that in mind as you consider whether you want to be an aggressive buyer.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select financial related names rebounding: SOV +40.3% (upgraded to Market Outperform at Boenning & Scattergood), GNW +20.0% (announces strategic review of U.S. Mortgage Insurance, including possible spin-off), AIG +19.6%, FNM +19.2%, FRE +13.9%, ABK +12.9%, WB +12.5%, AIB +12.4%, RF +10.9%, RBS +9.1% (moves to reassure investors on ABM Amro stake - DJ), UBS +6.8%, JPM +6.8%, MS +6.0% (Morgan Stanley Investment Management announces participation in U.S. Treasury temporary guarantee program for money market funds), C +5.6%, NTRS +5.6% (S&P says Northern Trust rating unaffected by charges), BAC +5.0%, WFC +4.8% (upgraded to Neutral at Baird), ING +3.6% (not to make offer for ABN Amro Netherlands)... Select metals/mining names trading higher: RTP +10.3%, GFI +9.7%, SSL +9.1%, MT +8.9%, GOLD +7.2%, RIO +6.2%, BHP +3.3%... Other news: HUN +56.4% (wins in Delaware trial), IFX +11.6% (still checking), DPS +5.0% (will replace Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on October 3), STP +2.8% (selected to supply 1.6 MW of solar panels to Sun Devil Solar for its project with Arizona State University)... Analyst comments: RIMM +5.1% (upgraded to Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities), INTC +3.2% (upgraded to Buy at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
General news: CY -70.7% (trading post split), SHPGY -2.2% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: RRI -3.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Add at Calyon Securities).
Ei oskagi kommenteerida, kui ise praegu vaatan, siis näitab mul küll adekvaatseid numbreid...
NCC 1,68/1,69
September Chicago PMI 56.7 vs 53.0 consensus, prior 57.9
hmm, tarbijad ja Chicago ostujuhid on septembris suht muretud olnud :)
NCC bounce'b mõnnalt