Päeva suurimaks uudiseks kujuneb Mercki (MRK) ümber toimuv. 100 miljardi dollari suuruse turukapitalisatsiooniga firma on eelturu hindasid arvestades kaotanud sellest 18 miljardit ning põhjuseks valuvaigistaja Vioxx turult ärakorjamine. Kuna aktsia on Dow koosseisus, siis on karta üsna tumedat päeva algust.
Pooljuhtide sektorit mõjutavad kaks uudist Microni (MU) tulemused ning augustikuu müügistatistika. Semicontuctor Industry Association andmetel kasvas augustis pooljuhtide müük võrreldes juuliga 1,1% 18, 2 miljardi dollari peale, aastaga kasvas tööstusharu müük 34,2 protsenti.
Micron avaldas eile oma kvartalitulemused ning oodatult olid need üsna kehvad. Kvartalikäive oli 1,19 miljardit dollarit ning kasum 14 senti aktsia kohta (käibeks oodati keskmiselt 1,23 miljardit, kasumiks 20 senti aktsia kohta). Järgmise kvartali kasumiprognoos oli 9-27 senti ning käibeprognoos 1,15-1,32 miljardit dollarit. Suur vahemik annab märku tööstusharu suurenevast ebakindlusest tuleviku suhtes. Aktsia siiski eelturul muutumatu, mis viitab teatavale põhja saavutamisele antud sektoris.
Nortel (NT) teatas taaskord tegevuse restruktureerimisest ning seekord on kavas koondada 3250 töökohta USA-s.
Rev Shark:
As the third quarter concludes it is time for the bulls to prove whether they are real leaders or just tempting us with end-of-the-quarter manipulation. Although the indices have been acting very well over the last couple days there are some peculiarities in the action that leave a niggling doubt about the level of the bulls' commitment to this market once the quarter ends.
Technically the indices have act well over the last two days. Yesterday in particular looked good for the Nasdaq, with good breadth and a nice increase in volume. However, the very quick shift in leadership from defensive stocks on Tuesday to the technology stocks yesterday made trading very tricky.
My inability to find a lot of good candidates yesterday left me feeling very uneasy about the legitimacy of the strength. It might just be that I was looking in the wrong places and am out of touch with what is really going on but it was interesting that after seeing a surfeit of buy candidates on Tuesday in the defensive groups I found far fewer in the high-beta stocks yesterday. That leaves me scratching my head and thinking that maybe we don't have any real bullish leadership just some clever trading action.
Whether the strength is sustainable will be answered as soon as the quarter ends and earnings season starts. The true sentiments of the big boys will become much clearer once the quarter ends. We have to be very careful about jumping to any major conclusion from the current action. The technical action such as the higher lows that the major indices have put in would be much more convincing if there was no question that the buying was for real, rather than window-dressing.
We have quite a bit of economic news on the calendar and of course the big political debate tonight. I wouldn't expect the debate to have any major effect unless President Bush loses badly and it cuts sharply into his lead. The market seems to be anticipating a Bush win and would be upset with a bad showing.
Weekly unemployment claims just hit and are quite disappointing, with a increase to 369,000 vs. consensus of 343,000. The market is trading down on the news. Personal income is inline and the price deflator is actually lower than expected. That may help boost bonds a bit.
It should be a very tricky day today as market participants grapple with how to deal with the end of the quarter. Be careful out there.
Gary B. Smith:
