Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AFOP -12.8%, THQI -11.1%, ISIL -9.2% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), RDN -8.8%, MTSN -6.3% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), AMP -5.6%, TZOO -5.2%, ACE -5.1%, TTEK -5%, ICO -4.3%, ANF -3.3%, BMC -3%, HI -2.1%, V -0.9%, IPHI -0.8%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: BBVA -3.2%, STD -2.7%, LYG -2.2%, ING -0.8%.
Select mortgage insurers under pressure following RDN results: MTG -2.2%, PMI -2.0%, MBI -1.5%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -2.3%, REP -1.7%, E -1.4%, SDRL -1.1%, BP -0.9%.
Other news: ZIOP -7.3% (to sell 9.6 mln shares of its common stock), GLP -4.8% (to offer 2.3 mln common units), CVI -2.3% (upsizes secondary pubic offering by certain shareholders and prices 23,610,218 shares at 16.75), PHM -2.1% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), SNY -1.7% (hearing near deal with GENZ).
Analyst comments: RHHBY -1.3% (ticking lower; downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale ), LUV -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), KBH -1.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS).
Still in an Uptrend
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/3/2011 8:52 AM EST
"There is no secret to balance. You just have to feel the waves."
-- Frank Herbert
The big question facing market players right now is whether the strong action on Tuesday negated the big break down last Friday and puts the recent uptrend back on track. A quiet day on Wednesday did little to clarify the situation. Typically, it hasn't paid to question uptrends. Once this market starts to bounce, it usually just keeps on going and crushes any skeptics. Dare we ask whether this time it might be different?
The two major concerns are that the breakdown on Friday came on much heavier volume than the spike back up on Tuesday. In addition, Tuesday's rally corresponded with the first day of a new month, which has routinely produced the vast majority of gains in the market. A good argument can be made that Tuesday's strength was just reflexive buying by market players who are playing the calendar rather than "real" buying by folks who believe that the market is offering bargain prices.
As I've made very clear many times, I don't see much value in questioning a market trend. Trying to anticipate turns is a losing approach to the market. That does not mean, however, that we shouldn't be aware of the conditions and what might happen. If we are mentally prepared for various scenarios, it makes it easier to react when conditions actually do change.
The bullish case for this market can be summed up in one word: momentum. We keep on running, and the sudden reversals (similar to what we had on Tuesday) create a big supply of squeezed bears and underinvested bulls. The folks who missed the move are now anxious to buy on dips. They may not believe in this market -- in fact, we have an unusually high level of bearishness for a market that is at its annual highs -- but they are sick of missing out.
The bearish case for the market right now is pretty much the same as it has been for months. Much of it revolves around the market not accurately reflecting the true economic picture. We all know the market has been manipulated to some degree by the Fed's quantitative-easing policies, but trying to fight it has not been a smart approach.
In the shorter term, we now have seasonality turning negative as we are past the first few days of the new month. Also most of the major earnings reports are over and there is less news flow. We still have some good reports hitting, but they are mostly smaller names like Silicon Graphics International (SGI) and Shutterfly (SFLY) . There aren't a lot of potential upside drivers right now, which make embolden the bears a little.
Overall, we have to continue to respect the fact that we remain in an uptrend. Until there is some actual price weakness, it just doesn't pay to be bearish. My approach right now is to keep on digging for long trades but to be watchful for any change in market characters. I'm skeptical that Tuesday's move was the resumption of strong upside momentum rather than just a calendar play, but it is still the bulls' game to lose.
We have some softness this morning, but overall it is pretty quiet once again. Stay open-minded and alert and we'll be able to knock out some good trades.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
Euro jätkab langust: EURUSD -1,2% ja kaupleb 1,3645 juures.
January ISM Services 59.4 vs 57.0 Briefing.com consensus; December 57.1
December Factory Orders +0.2% vs -0.6% Briefing.com consensus
December Factory Orders +0.2% vs -0.6% Briefing.com consensus
The Fed purchased $8.87 bln of 2021-2027 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $23.52 bln
Piper Jaffray analüütikute tänane väide, et CLDA aktsia võiks ülevõtu puhul maksta kuni $75 äratas äratas juba eelturul turuosaliste tähelepanu ning aktsia avanes 6% plussis ehk $31,50 kandist ning esimene kiire spike käis ära $32,30 kandis. Seejärel kukkus aktsia $31 peale ning liikus sirgjoones $33 tasemele. Hetkel kaupleb CLDA $31,70 kandis ehk 6,3% plusspoolel ja olgu öeldud, et eelturul hakkas aktsia kauplema alates $30,25 pealt.
Kui ma hommikul arutlesin, missugune argument võiks HSY call`i puhul määravaks saada, siis nagu on näha allolevalt graafikult pidasid turuosalised tagasihoidlikust hinnasihist märksa olulisemaks analüütikute prognoose ja kommentaare. Aktsia avanes $49,25 kandist ehk ca 1,5% plussist ning liikus peale avanemist koheselt $50,70 juurde ja võib öelda, et täna oli antud call`i puhul ilus punkt laual. Hetkel kaupleb HSY $50,55 peal ehk 4% plusspoolel.
Kui ma hommikul arutlesin, missugune argument võiks HSY call`i puhul määravaks saada, siis nagu on näha allolevalt graafikult pidasid turuosalised tagasihoidlikust hinnasihist märksa olulisemaks analüütikute prognoose ja kommentaare. Aktsia avanes $49,25 kandist ehk ca 1,5% plussist ning liikus peale avanemist koheselt $50,70 juurde ja võib öelda, et täna oli antud call`i puhul ilus punkt laual. Hetkel kaupleb HSY $50,55 peal ehk 4% plusspoolel.
Muddy Waters research annab China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME)-le strong sell`i koos $5 hinnasihiga.
Hetkel on aktsia kukkunud juba 15% ja kaupleb $14,00 peal.
Olgu öeldud, et Muddy Waters oli ka see, mis saatis hingusele RINO.
Hetkel on aktsia kukkunud juba 15% ja kaupleb $14,00 peal.
Olgu öeldud, et Muddy Waters oli ka see, mis saatis hingusele RINO.
When asked about an extension of monetary policy, Fed Chairman Bernanke says the approach is the same as always
Tänased teatajad:
AATI, ABCO, AFG, BKH, BBBB, BRKS, CLMS, CALD, CPT, CFN, CBG, CDXS, CSTR, CPX, CTCT, DLB, EXXI, ESE, ESS, FFG, FEIC, FISV, HAIN, HLIT, IN, XXIA, JDSU, LVS, LPS, LIFE, MXL, MAA, MTX, MPWR, MTSC, MFLX, NFG, NCR, EGOV, OPWV, OPXT, PKI, POWI, PWER, QSFT, RLD, RDK, SIMG, SSD, SRCL, SUN, TSYS, TRMB, UTI, VRTX ja ZRAN.
Homme enne turgu:
AET, ABC, AON, AIV, AVID, CLX, SUR, CEG, UFS, FO, GHM, KNL, MGI, NOOF, CHUX, BPOP, PPL, PHM, SXT, SPG, SEP, SRI, TE, TDW, TSN, WY ja YRCW.
AATI, ABCO, AFG, BKH, BBBB, BRKS, CLMS, CALD, CPT, CFN, CBG, CDXS, CSTR, CPX, CTCT, DLB, EXXI, ESE, ESS, FFG, FEIC, FISV, HAIN, HLIT, IN, XXIA, JDSU, LVS, LPS, LIFE, MXL, MAA, MTX, MPWR, MTSC, MFLX, NFG, NCR, EGOV, OPWV, OPXT, PKI, POWI, PWER, QSFT, RLD, RDK, SIMG, SSD, SRCL, SUN, TSYS, TRMB, UTI, VRTX ja ZRAN.
Homme enne turgu:
AET, ABC, AON, AIV, AVID, CLX, SUR, CEG, UFS, FO, GHM, KNL, MGI, NOOF, CHUX, BPOP, PPL, PHM, SXT, SPG, SEP, SRI, TE, TDW, TSN, WY ja YRCW.
Las Vegas Sands prelim $0.42 vs $0.39 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $2.02 bln vs $2.07 bln Thomson Reuters consensus; EBITDA $738.9 mln vs. ests of ~$680 mln
LVS järelturul juba 6% miinuses, kaubeldes $47 all.
Riisi (rough rice) futuur on viimase 4 päevaga tõunud ca 11% ning ühtlasi ületati täna ka 2009. aasta detsembrikuu tipp. Hetkel kaupleb riis 2008. aasta oktoobrikuu tasemel.
Bloomberg on koostanud ühe lihtsa, kuid huvitava graafiku, mis seletab hästi rahutuste põhjusi Egiptuses. Sisuliselt on graafikul ära toodud Kesk-Ida ja Põhja-Aafrika riikide SKP per capita – kui Egiptuse kasv on vahemikul 1989 ja 2008 olnud peaaegu olematu, siis näiteks Türgi on kasvanud 273% ja Liibanon koguni 689%.
Absolute Return Partners’ hinnangul jahtus Hiina majanduskasv 2010. aastal prognoosidest oluliselt suuremal määral. Kui vaadata allolevat graafikut, mis võrdleb Hiina energiatootmise y-o-y muutst ja SKP numbreid, siis võiks oletada, et halvim on veel ees. Kui 2010. aasta esimeses kvartalis kasvas Hiina energiatootmine 22.7%, siis aasta viimases kvartalis kukkus see 5.5%le. Q4 langus oli niivõrd suur, et q-o-q baasil vähenes energiatootmine koguni 6.3%.
Olukorra muudab veelgi negatiivsemaks fakt, et riigil on tõsiseid probleeme tõusva inflatsiooniga - CPI ehk tarbijahinna indeks langes detsembris 4.6%le novembri 5.1% pealt. Samas on suurtemates linnades inflatsioonimääraks registreeritud kuni 20%. Huvitaval kombel muutis Hiina uue aasta saabudes ka valemit, mille järgi tarbijahinna indeksit arvutatakse – toidu osakaalu vähendati oluliselt. Küsimus on selles, et kas muudatuseks oli ka reaalselt vajadust, või on tegu inflatsiooni näiliselt tegelikust madalamal hoidmisega.
Olukorra muudab veelgi negatiivsemaks fakt, et riigil on tõsiseid probleeme tõusva inflatsiooniga - CPI ehk tarbijahinna indeks langes detsembris 4.6%le novembri 5.1% pealt. Samas on suurtemates linnades inflatsioonimääraks registreeritud kuni 20%. Huvitaval kombel muutis Hiina uue aasta saabudes ka valemit, mille järgi tarbijahinna indeksit arvutatakse – toidu osakaalu vähendati oluliselt. Küsimus on selles, et kas muudatuseks oli ka reaalselt vajadust, või on tegu inflatsiooni näiliselt tegelikust madalamal hoidmisega.