FirstFed Financiali (FED) ja Downey Financiali (DSL) aktsiate võimalikust penny stocki saatusest sai juttu tehtud 11. juuni börsipäevas. FEDi aktsia kukkus hiljem alla $3, kuid taastus seejärel $24.8-ni, DSL liikus sarnase mustri järgi. Loodeti vist bailouti peale ning oma osa oli shortide katmisel. Kuna mõlemad ettevõtted on hulgaliselt väljastanud muutuvate määradega hüpoteeklaene (ARM), siis Wachovia (WB) kukkumine mõjus neile nagu külm dušš.
Kui Wachovia poleks ennast Citigroupile maha müünud, oleksid laenukahjud võinud ettevõtte ka pankrotti viia. Neljast suuremast ARMide väljastajatest oli Wachovia viimane tegutsev, seega pole mingit põhjust arvata, et DSL-l peaks paremini minema. Liiatigi tegutsekse Californias, kus kinnisvarahinnad kõige enam kukkunud.
suffiksi postitatud artiklis on ARMide iseloomustamiseks suurepärane lause:
For the average option ARM borrower, payments will rise 63 percent, or by an additional $1,053 per month, when their rates reset, according to a Sept. 2 report by New York-based Fitch.
Laenuvõtjad lootsid kas enda palga ülikiirele kasvule või tegelesid spekuleerimisega, lootes maja hiljem kallimalt maha müüa. Seepärast tundub nende abistamine samasugune moral hazard nagu finantsasutuste puhul, kuna riski võeti reeglina teadlikult. Aga häid alternatiive pole, sest kindlasti on nende hulgas ka inimesi, kes langesid lihtsalt pankade turundusjõudude lõksu. Lisaks tähendaks mitteabistamine veelgi suuremaid kulusid ülejäänutele.
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By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/29/2008 7:37 AM EDT
Every reform, however necessary, will by weak minds be carried to an excess, which will itself need reforming.
-- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, 1772-1834
The market is wasting no time in delivering a sharp "sell the news" reaction to the bailout plan. Many were looking for at least a little more positive reaction following the intense negotiations over the bill, but three bank failures in Europe undermined the fragile sentiment and have sent market players running for the sidelines once again.
Although many are hailing the bailout plan as a fantastic solution to the illiquidity of bad mortgage paper, the big problem is that many investors are just awakening to how dire the whole situation is. While we may indeed be able to chip away at the problems with the passing of this plan, we still have a huge problem -- investors are downright frightened.
The politicians are now largely in agreement over the necessity of this plan, but there is a huge negative backlash on Main Street. This deal has not been sold very well to many average investors, and that is undermining trust in the market as well as the whole financial sector.
I can go on and on about the problems out there that are weighing on this market this morning, but what we really need to focus on is how to navigate through this. We still have substantial uncertainty, especially as the European banking system now recognizes its problems after saying as late as last week that it did not share the problems we are seeing in the U.S.
In addition to the banking issues, we are now struggling to price in the recession they are going to deepen. You can see obvious evidence of that this morning as commodity-related stocks and industries such as steel and shipping are hit hard.
I really wish I could offer some better advice, but we have little choice but to continue to stay heavily in cash and to avoid the temptation to bottom-fish. Emotions are extremely high, and that may help accelerate the bottoming process, but it is reckless to anticipate that it is coming to an end soon.
I know this market isn't much fun, and there is a temptation to keep hoping for a big bounce and better conditions, but we have to respect what is happening, and it's not very pretty.
The good news is that almost every poor open like we are seeing this morning has been a good trading opportunity, but the mood is frightening and you can be sure that quite a few folks are looking to escape this nightmare as quickly as they can if we have a bounce.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Select airlines showing strength with crude lower: LCC +4.9%, UAUA +4.7%, DAL +3.8%, CAL +3.0%... Other news: FNM +20.8% and FRE +12.5% (showing strength with progress on the $700 bln troubled asset agreement), PPC +9.9% (announces definitive written agreement with lenders on temporary covenant waiver), IMCL +4.1% (may have talks to announce - WSJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: XING -20.1%, CALM -15.6%, WAG -3.8%... Select financial related names showing weakness: WB -90.3% (Citigroup to acquire banking operations of Wachovia), NCC -25.9%, RBS -21.6% (tumbles in the UK because of its perceived links to the stricken European bank Fortis - Guardian Unlimited), CORS -20.0%, AIB -19.6%, LYG -18.9%, UBS -14.9%, CS -13.7%, AEG -11.4% (has EUR125 mln gross exposure to Washington Mutual - DJ), ING -11.1%, IBN -10.9%, MS -9.1%, C -5.2% (Citigroup to acquire banking operations of Wachovia), JPM -5.2%, WFC -3.8%, GS -3.6%, AIG -3.5% (will issue a new series of Convertible Participating Serial Preferred Stock, FT reports AIG looks to sell 15 units), ABK -2.9%, BAC -2.9%... Select oil/gas names stocks showing weakness with crude lower: BP -5.8%, RDS.A -5.6%, TOT -5.6%... Select mining names trading lower: MT -8.6%, BHP -8.1%, RTP -7.7%, RIO -5.0%... Other news: NOK -6.3% (still checking for anything specific), LLY -3.9% (announced the FDA did not complete its review for the prasugrel new drug application)... Analyst comments: AAPL -6.2% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley and downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC), FCX -4.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Securities), CDE -4.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Securities).
vara ei katnud pisut?;)
- Riik ostab paari triljoni eest aktsiaid
- Keelatakse finantsettevõtete aktsiate müük vms
Ca 11 tuh on ju see Dow piir, kus alati midagi välja mõeldakse