September Durable Goods ex-trans -1.1% vs -1.5% consensus; prior revised to -4.1% from -3.0%
September Durable Goods Orders 0.8% vs -1.1% consensus; prior revised to -5.5% from -4.5%
ikka 3 punkti tuleb langetada, siis oleks veel 5000 punkti varu.
Tainapeade kari, andke jah viimanegi kaart käes.Kui intress on 0, mida siis langetma haktakse?Päid või?
Tainapeade kari, andke jah viimanegi kaart käes.Kui intress on 0, mida siis langetma haktakse?Päid või?
tüübid on oma intressidaga manipuleeride kogu maailma persse keeranud, miks peaks seekord paremini minema?
Greenspan tuleks oma intresside all hoisdmise eetst 2000 algul puljongiks keeta!
Greenspan tuleks oma intresside all hoisdmise eetst 2000 algul puljongiks keeta!
Mitte puljongiks keeta, vaid rahvale näitamiseks(kividega loopimiseks) mööda maailma linnu ringi vedada!
As expected, Norway cut their benchmark interest rate 50 bps to 4.75%
Nokia (NOK) sai Amtech-i käest upgrade neutraalselt -> osta peale ja uueks hinnasihiks $22. Eelturl on aktsia kerges -0.87% languses ja kaupleb $15.87 tasemel.
Amtech upgrades NOK to Buy from Neutral with a $22 tgt based on the following: 1) Flat to down 2009 industry units are priced into the stock. The firm is encouraged that consensus has "caught up" and now even expects units down 5-10%. Firm says risks from smartphones are well-understood. Firm also says downside risk to handset margins is limited.
Amtech upgrades NOK to Buy from Neutral with a $22 tgt based on the following: 1) Flat to down 2009 industry units are priced into the stock. The firm is encouraged that consensus has "caught up" and now even expects units down 5-10%. Firm says risks from smartphones are well-understood. Firm also says downside risk to handset margins is limited.
Kui põllumajandussektorist CNH lõi 2. kvartali ootusi ja tõstis prognoose, siis paar päeva tagasi löödi ka 3. kvartali tulemustega ootusi ning tõsteti veelkord prognoose. Täna teatas oma tulemused samast sektorist AG - ettevõtte lööb kergelt ootusi ja tõstab samuti prognosse. Sektori suurimad tegijad DE, CNH ja AG.
Saksamaa DAX -1.64%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +6.48%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +5.12%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +6.78%
Venemaa MICEX +9.07%
Poola WIG +4.70%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +7.74%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.93%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -5.28%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.51%
Tai Set 50 -4.47%
India Sensex 30 +0.40%
Lower Volatility Would Set Us Up Nicely
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/29/2008 7:49 AM EDT
Doubt is the beginning, not the end, of wisdom.
-- George Iles
For the second time this month, the S&P 500 moved up more than 10% in a single day. I don't know if that has ever happened before, but what is really surprising about it is that the index is still down nearly 20% for the month. This is a level of volatility that most of us have never seen before, and it is not easy to deal with.
The good news is that while those 10% spikes are indicative of a bear market, there is some hope that the technical conditions are changing and may give us some support for at least a little more upside. We have now had retests of lows around 840 on the S&P 500, and that may give us some support.
The key remains what I've been talking about for a while. We need less volatility. We need emotions to die down a bit and for some narrower ranges to emerge. The technical pattern is still somewhat similar to the bottom that formed in 1987 after the crash, but what really helped to get things moving was that after the lows of the crash were first tested, trading became less volatile. There were some very narrow days and we drifted around and even retested the lows once again in December, six weeks after the crash, but things settled down, and that provided the base we needed for upside.
Economic conditions are obviously much different now than in 1987, but the way charts are playing out is not that different. If we are going to rally, we are very likely to follow the 1987 pattern. We'll find out soon enough, but for the moment there is some promise.
We have the Fed interest rate cut today, which is well anticipated. A half-point cut seems likely and has been priced in already. We'll likely see some volatility on the announcement, but I don't believe it will hold any real surprises. It will be gamed on a psychological basis by traders -- not a fundamental one -- which means we are going to see some fast moves.
What we badly need at this point is some consolidation and less volatility. If that occurs, I will be much more optimistic about some further upside in the near term. The potential is there, but as we have seen, volatility has not slowed, and that should keep us from being too aggressive.
We have a fairly calm start to the day and futures have turned positive after some negative indications. Overseas markets are up strongly once again, and there seems to be some worry that if you don't load up now you will miss out on the turn. I don't think we've missed the last chance to buy, so don't get to anxious if you have cash on hand.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DENN +36.7% (upgraded to Buy at Merriman), HERO +14.6%, RFMD +12.6%, FLS +11.0%, ARRS +9.0% (light volume), APOL +7.0%, AG +5.9%, ANR +4.6%, RNT +3.4%, NEM +1.1%... Select oil/gas related names showing strength with crude higher: STO +5.4%, TOT +4.4%, E +4.3%, PBR +3.6%, VLO +3.1%, CHK +3.1%, NOV +2.8%, RDS.A +2.4%, BP +2.0%, XOM +0.7%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: SLW +12.9%, SLV +6.1%, AUY +4.9%, RTP +4.2%, KGC +4.2%, GOLD +3.8%, ABX +3.4%, BHP +3.3%, GG +2.9%, AAUK +2.8%... Other news: TSRA +22.0% (announces arbitration panel finds Tessera patents valid and enforceable), SI +10.1% (still checking), CALM + 6.9% (to replace UNT in the S&P600), BEBE +5.7% (Cramer makes postivie comments on MadMoney), SAP +5.2% (still checking), AVAV +3.6% (Cramer makes postivie comments on MadMoney), ING + 2.2% (still checking)... Analyst comments: PCU +8.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VPRT -17.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), ANDE -16.1%, GLW -12.4%, MOLX -9.5%, DRIV -7.8%, WBSN -7.6%, Q -6.2%, STM -3.5%, NETL -3.1%, CMCSA -2.7%, ADVS -2.7%, GFI -2.6% (also upgraded to Buy at UBS), SNE -2.3%, BBOX -1.9% (light volume)... Select airlines ticking lower with crude higher: LCC -6.5%, AMR -3.3%, DAL -3.3%, CAL -3.1%, UAUA -2.9%... Analyst comments: JNJ -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/29/2008 7:49 AM EDT
Doubt is the beginning, not the end, of wisdom.
-- George Iles
For the second time this month, the S&P 500 moved up more than 10% in a single day. I don't know if that has ever happened before, but what is really surprising about it is that the index is still down nearly 20% for the month. This is a level of volatility that most of us have never seen before, and it is not easy to deal with.
The good news is that while those 10% spikes are indicative of a bear market, there is some hope that the technical conditions are changing and may give us some support for at least a little more upside. We have now had retests of lows around 840 on the S&P 500, and that may give us some support.
The key remains what I've been talking about for a while. We need less volatility. We need emotions to die down a bit and for some narrower ranges to emerge. The technical pattern is still somewhat similar to the bottom that formed in 1987 after the crash, but what really helped to get things moving was that after the lows of the crash were first tested, trading became less volatile. There were some very narrow days and we drifted around and even retested the lows once again in December, six weeks after the crash, but things settled down, and that provided the base we needed for upside.
Economic conditions are obviously much different now than in 1987, but the way charts are playing out is not that different. If we are going to rally, we are very likely to follow the 1987 pattern. We'll find out soon enough, but for the moment there is some promise.
We have the Fed interest rate cut today, which is well anticipated. A half-point cut seems likely and has been priced in already. We'll likely see some volatility on the announcement, but I don't believe it will hold any real surprises. It will be gamed on a psychological basis by traders -- not a fundamental one -- which means we are going to see some fast moves.
What we badly need at this point is some consolidation and less volatility. If that occurs, I will be much more optimistic about some further upside in the near term. The potential is there, but as we have seen, volatility has not slowed, and that should keep us from being too aggressive.
We have a fairly calm start to the day and futures have turned positive after some negative indications. Overseas markets are up strongly once again, and there seems to be some worry that if you don't load up now you will miss out on the turn. I don't think we've missed the last chance to buy, so don't get to anxious if you have cash on hand.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DENN +36.7% (upgraded to Buy at Merriman), HERO +14.6%, RFMD +12.6%, FLS +11.0%, ARRS +9.0% (light volume), APOL +7.0%, AG +5.9%, ANR +4.6%, RNT +3.4%, NEM +1.1%... Select oil/gas related names showing strength with crude higher: STO +5.4%, TOT +4.4%, E +4.3%, PBR +3.6%, VLO +3.1%, CHK +3.1%, NOV +2.8%, RDS.A +2.4%, BP +2.0%, XOM +0.7%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: SLW +12.9%, SLV +6.1%, AUY +4.9%, RTP +4.2%, KGC +4.2%, GOLD +3.8%, ABX +3.4%, BHP +3.3%, GG +2.9%, AAUK +2.8%... Other news: TSRA +22.0% (announces arbitration panel finds Tessera patents valid and enforceable), SI +10.1% (still checking), CALM + 6.9% (to replace UNT in the S&P600), BEBE +5.7% (Cramer makes postivie comments on MadMoney), SAP +5.2% (still checking), AVAV +3.6% (Cramer makes postivie comments on MadMoney), ING + 2.2% (still checking)... Analyst comments: PCU +8.1% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VPRT -17.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), ANDE -16.1%, GLW -12.4%, MOLX -9.5%, DRIV -7.8%, WBSN -7.6%, Q -6.2%, STM -3.5%, NETL -3.1%, CMCSA -2.7%, ADVS -2.7%, GFI -2.6% (also upgraded to Buy at UBS), SNE -2.3%, BBOX -1.9% (light volume)... Select airlines ticking lower with crude higher: LCC -6.5%, AMR -3.3%, DAL -3.3%, CAL -3.1%, UAUA -2.9%... Analyst comments: JNJ -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan).
Miks see VIP nii lendu läinud on?
VIPi ühe suuromaniku Altimo (44% aktsiatest) puhul kardeti Deutsche Banki poolt margin calli (Altimo oli VIPi aktsiate tagatisel laenu võtnud ning aktsia langedes ei olnud tagatis enam piisav), mistõttu investorid aktsiat müüma asusid. See kartus on päevakorrast maas, sest kohus külmutas tehingud antud pakiga (küll teisel põhjusel) ning valitsus pakkus omalt poolt finantsabi. VIPi äritegevust see ei mõjuta.
Lisaks emiteeris MTS 10 miljardi rubla eest võlakirju (lunastustähtaeg 7 aastat), kupong 14% (mis praegustest oludes on hea), demonstreerides telekomide jätkuvat atraktiivsust.
Lisaks emiteeris MTS 10 miljardi rubla eest võlakirju (lunastustähtaeg 7 aastat), kupong 14% (mis praegustest oludes on hea), demonstreerides telekomide jätkuvat atraktiivsust.
Dollar drops most since 1998 before Fed's decision on rates - Bloomberg.com
Bloomberg.com reports the dollar fell the most since 1998 against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as economists forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut the target lending rate by a half-percentage point today. The euro rose against the dollar for a second day after Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany will announce "bold'' measures to bolster the economy. The yen gained versus the U.S. currency as some traders judged its biggest decline since 1974 yesterday was too much to sustain. "The anticipation of lower rates from the Fed has improved the sentiment in the markets,'' said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital. "The dollar is already overbought.''
Bloomberg.com reports the dollar fell the most since 1998 against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as economists forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut the target lending rate by a half-percentage point today. The euro rose against the dollar for a second day after Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany will announce "bold'' measures to bolster the economy. The yen gained versus the U.S. currency as some traders judged its biggest decline since 1974 yesterday was too much to sustain. "The anticipation of lower rates from the Fed has improved the sentiment in the markets,'' said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital. "The dollar is already overbought.''
Hoidkem nüüd silmad lahti, järgneva 10-15 minuti jooksul tuleb intressimäära liigutamine ning turgudel suurem elu sisse...
Föderaalreserv langetab intressimäärasid 50 baasipunkti võrra.
Hääletus langetada intresse 1.00% peale oli ühehäälne. Ühehäälseid otsuseid pole juba mõnda aega olnud.
Vote to cut rate was unanimous
Fed says recent actions should improve credit conditions
Fed says pace of econ activity appears to have slowed markedly due importantly to consumer spending drop
Fed says inflation to moderate in coming qtrs
Fed says downside risks to growth remain
Vote to cut rate was unanimous
Fed says recent actions should improve credit conditions
Fed says pace of econ activity appears to have slowed markedly due importantly to consumer spending drop
Fed says inflation to moderate in coming qtrs
Fed says downside risks to growth remain
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 1%. The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures. Business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened in recent months, and slowing economic activity in many foreign economies is damping the prospects for U.S. exports. Moreover, the intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters to levels consistent with price stability. Recent policy actions, including today's rate reduction, coordinated interest rate cuts by central banks, extraordinary liquidity measures, and official steps to strengthen financial systems, should help over time to improve credit conditions and promote a return to moderate economic growth. Nevertheless, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Cleveland, and San Francisco.
Esialgu peale Fed`i otsust küllaltki kobe müügisurve, kuid päev veel noor.
No mida liikumine viimase 10 minutiga, käed ikka värisevad veel...
Ikka väga julm müük, sirgjooneliselt põhimõtteliselt alla ja esmapilgul GE-ga seonduvalt.
aga ikka suht vähe müüdi eilset 10%+ tõusu ära.