Gapping up
M&A news: VOLT (halted; Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) to acquire Voltaire for $8.75/share; expected to be $0.02-0.05 accretive to MLNX in FY11).
Ireland banks higher after the EU ironed out details of the Ireland bail out: IRE + 22.2% and AIB + 10.5%.
Other news: AMRN + 20.6% (AMR101 meets pivotal phase 3 study endpoints with highly statistically significant reductions in triglycerides at 4 gram and 2 gram doses in MARINE trial with no statistically significant increase in LDL-C and safety profile similar to placebo), AMAG + 20.1% (enounces Update to Feraheme Label; reached agreement with the FDA), SGMO + 10.6% (still checking), NLST +10.5% (announced that Compellent Technologies qualified and selected its NetVault NV for production shipments in the Compellent Storage Center solution), PIP + 3.5% (still checking), NFLX +1.6% (continued momentum), AMZN + 1.4% (several reports suggest that online sales higher than expected over the weekend), HBC + 1.2% (still checking), .
Analyst comments: NTSP +5.1% (initiated with a Buy at Suntrust, initiated with a Buy at Goldman, initiated with a Buy at Duncan Williams, initiated with Outperform at Wells Fargo), MTL + 2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), TSO + 1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie), DE + 1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo), FDX + 1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse ), AKAM + 1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Lazard Capital).
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GAGA -4.8% (ticking lower), GU -1.8% (light volume).
M&A news: MLNX -1.7% (to acquire Voltaire for $8.75/share; expected to be $0.02-0.05 accretive to MLNX in FY11),.
Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -3.1%, BBVA -2.2% (trading ex dividend), LYG -2.1%, AEG -1.9%, ING -1.4%, PUK -1.0%, CS -0.8%, STD -0.5%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: E -1.8% , TOT -1.6%, BP -1.3% (CNOOC Ltd and Bridas Energy jointly make capital contributions in Bridas to increase its stake in PAE), RDS.A -1.1%, STO -0.9% .
Select large cap drug names under pressure in early trade: SNY -2.0%, AZN -1.1%, GSK -1.1%, MRK -0.7% (reports results of Phase III Study of ISENTRESS investigational once-daily dosing in treatment-naive adult patients infected with HIV-1; did not demonstrate non-inferiority to the treatment regimen that included ISENTRESS twice daily and co will end study),
Other news: SWC -5.0% (announces a secondary offering of 37 mln shares of its common stock by its majority stockholder, Norimet Limited), ASML -3.2% (hearing weakness attributed to DRAM prices), NOK -1.6% (weakness attributed to reports out over the weekend suggesting that Symbian is trailing Android in Europe), BT -1.5% (pulling back), SAP -1.4% (presenting at the Credit Suisse Annual Technology Conf Nov 30), BUD -1.3% (still checking), .
Analyst comments: SHPGY -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), FRO -1.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank ), EBAY -0.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus),
Täna peaks tuge saama ka solarite sektor, sest ThinkEquity LLC on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega FirstSolar(FSLR), SunPower (SPWRA) ja LDK Solar (LDK) kohta.
ThinkEquity LLC analüütikud tõstavad kõigi kolme firma reitingut „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ning annavad uued hinnasihid vastavalt FSLR $148, LDK $15 ja SPWRA $20.
SPWRA:
• We believe SunPower's leadership position in Italy and US may allow the company to outperform its guidance for 2011.
• We believe SunPower offers investors downside protection through its industry leading extensive distribution channel which supports its pricing as well as the company's hedging program which has already hedged out 70% of the company's forex risk for 2011.
SPWRA puhul usuvad analüütikud, et SPWRA liidripositsioon Itaalias ja USA-s lubab firmal järgmise aasta ootusi ületada. Firma kasutab valuutariskide katteks kaitset, mis pakub investorile lisakindlust.
FSLR:
• We are growing increasingly bullish on 2011 demand, given recent datapoints on 1H:11 pricing from competitors, policy checks which indicate a lower likelihood of policy adjustments in Germany and Italy, and our checks which indicate the solar industry is diversifying its end markets and growingin excess of consensus expectations.
• We don't believe the Street fully appreciates the investments the company is making in cost reduction or the step function lower in cost that we expect to nsee in 1H:11.
• We believe the company paused capacity growth due to the financial crisis in 2008 and playing catch-up and is likely to grow in excess of competition and take share.
Analüütikud näevad järgmiseks aastaks tugevat nõudlust ja ei usu, et konsensus hindab täielikult firma püüdlusi kulude kärpimisel. ThinkEquity usub, et 2008. Aasta finantskriisi ajal piiras ettevõte oma tootmismahte, kuid nüüd on pannud sisse täiskäigu ja seetõttu ka hoogsalt kasvamas.
LDK:
We believe LDK remains a solid play on spot poly prices which remain elevated at $75-80/kg
• We believe Street estimates remain too low, especially in lieu of our increasingly bullish view on solar demand in 2011 and 2012.
LDK puhul usuvad analüütikud, et konsensuse ootused on liiga madalad, arvestades järgmise aasta nõudluse suurust.
ThinkEquity puhul pole tegemist väga mõjuka analüüsimajaga, aga antud calli puhul on oluline pigem negatiivne sentiment ( 17. oktoobril negatiivne reiting solaritele Credit Suisse poolt ), mis sektorit rõhunud on. Usun, et antud call saab täna tähelepanu.
Hetkel kaupleb FSLR $127 kandis, 0,6% plussis, SPWRA $12,30 kandis, 3,9% plussis ja LDK $11,24 kandis, 2,18% plussis.
Rev Shark: Stay On Your Toes
11/29/2010 9:00 AM
Flexibility -- in all aspects of life, the person with the most varied responses wins.
-- Kelly Perdew
Thanksgiving week provided an unusually high level of volatility, with the mood shifting sharply each day during the week and causing some problems for anyone trying to catch momentum in either direction. The choppy action is continuing this morning as an initial positive reaction to a bailout of Ireland quickly loses steam. The problem, more specifically, is that there is now concern that the much-larger economy of Spain may also need a bailout.
Luckily for the bulls, there have been some fairly strong economic data this morning, and this is helping the mood together with reports of exceptionally hearty online retail sales. We're seeing a fair amount of positives offsetting the European woes, and that is why the see-saw action has continued lately.
In this sort of environment, in which the major indices change direction every other day, there isn't much we can do but stay flexible and open-minded, and wait for a break out of the recent trading range. The S&P 500 has been ping-ponging between 1175 and 1200 for about two weeks now, and the index is set to open this morning in the bottom end of that range.
Technically the bears have a slight advantage right now, as the market clearly broke down in the early part of November. However, the S&P has very strong support at around 1175, which is the 50-day simple moving average. If the index breaches that level, the move is likely to trigger sell stops and concerns that a downtend is gaining momentum.
On the upside, the S&P has been turned back at 1200 several times recently, which increases the chances that another test will prove successful. The more often a support or resistance level is tested, the more likely it will fall. That said, let's not anticipate that sort of action until it actually starts to occur.
When the market is in a trading range as it is now, it can provide for some good opportunities, but time frames need to be short and trades need to be managed very closely. It is quite easy to be whipsawed when stocks gap in various directions each day. Once the market breaks out of the trading range, though, then we can start looking for trend trades to develop. In the meantime, it is a good idea to stay agnostic about market direction and to let the price action be your guide. Each side can make a good case at the moment, but the side that deserves our respect is the one that's able to push the major indices out of the recent trading range.
Although the dollar is stronger this morning, it looks as though oil and commodities are leading in the early going. Big-cap technology has been a leader lately, and we need to watch how that group acts. The main thing right now, though, is to be aware that the market is in a trading range -- and that means we should focus on trading it while we wait for a trend to emerge. Buckle up -- it should continue to be a bumpy ride for a while longer.
USA indeksite futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0,2% kuni 0,3% miinuspoolel
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1,56%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1,65%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1,27%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1,90%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,23%
Venemaa MICEX -0,68%
Poola WIG -0,92%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,86%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1,26%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,19%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0,20%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,16%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 +0,44%
Tai Set 50 +2,08%
India Sensex 30 +1,40%
Solarite osas tuleb mul Street`i arvamusega 100% nõustuda, sest ilmselgelt ei huvitanud ThinkEquity positiivne visioon täna turul mitte kedagi ja loodetavasti kõik, kes mõnda neist nimedest täna kaubelda proovis, sai positsiooni õigel ajal kinni panna. Hetkel kauplevad FSLR, LDK ja SPWRA punases vastavalt 3%, 2% ja 0,17% madalamal oma reedesest sulgumishinnast.
FDX töötas hästi ja on üllatavalt stabiilselt siiani ka aina ülespoole liikunud. Avanemisel sai positsiooni soetada $88,50-$88,80 kandis ning esimese liikumisega sai ka kiirelt vähemalt $0,50-$0,70 kasumit ära võtta.
Kui veel rääkida tänasest solarite call`st, siis ma usun, et vähemalt osaliselt oli solarite tänane "mittetöötamine" tingitud artiklist, mis avaldati Saksamaa Financial Times`s.
Lühidalt öeldes sisaldas artikkel Merkeli energiaeksperdi Thomas Bareiss`i kirja keskkonna ministrile Nobert Roettgen`le, kus Bareiss soovitab valitsusel äsja paigaldatud päikesepaneelidel juba garanteeritud FIT kilovatt -tunni hinda alates 1. jaanuarist veel kärpida. Rohkem selle artikli ja ettepaneku kohta saab lugeda TheStreet veebilehelt.
Arvestades seda artiklit, ThinkEquity vähest mõjujõudu ja turgu, siis ma enam väga ei imestagi, miks solarid miinuses on.