Controlling the Beast
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/29/2010 8:52 AM EDT
Change is inevitable -- except from a vending machine.
-- Robert C. Gallagher
Last week, the market had its worst three-day stretch since our most recent rally began back on Feb. 5. The S&P500 fell just 0.65% Wednesday through Friday, but it was the most selling pressure we have had in weeks.
Based on this pause in what has been a remarkably buoyant market, a number of traders are now ready to proclaim that we are about to see a change in market character. To some degree, this is probably just wishful thinking, as it has been a very difficult trading environment, with little volatility and no pullbacks for easier entry. Even the bulls had started to complain about how we needed a rest.
While the trading over the last three days is a slight change in character, we still have not seen any real change in the technical conditions of the major indices. All that has happened is some slight consolidation and minor profit taking. This may evolve into something more ominous, but nothing yet has happened to suggest that that will be the case.
What I continue to find most striking about the market action lately is how little enthusiasm there has been during this stunning rally. Until the past few days, we hadn't seen selling pressure for more than a half-day in over a month, yet there has been little celebration, and I have certainly not seen market players rushing in to buy like they did during rallies in past years.
Perhaps that lack of joy is what keeps us walking a wall of worry, but market players seem more complacent than skeptical. The only news that has impacted the market to any large extent lately in the strength in the dollar, but it is weak again this morning and that is pushing us up.
I did my usual review of charts this weekend and turned up very little of interest. There are lots of extended stocks that have yet to consolidate enough to offer good entry points. There aren't many pockets of strong momentum, and the overall leadership isn't very focused. We have had some strength in big caps like Amazon (AMZN) , Baidu (BIDU) and Priceline (PCLN) , but they have been choppy and aren't moving the way the broad market indices have.
That action at the end of last week gives some hope to those who are rooting for the market to pull back or consolidate, but I'm not going to jump to the conclusion that the long-awaited and much-hoped-for correction is here. The market this morning is right back to the upbeat mood we had for so long, but that is pretty typical for a Monday morning.
Despite the very slight dip last week, the bulls remain in control and there isn't any reason yet to believe that the uptrend is ending. It sure would make for more interesting trading if we had some more aggressive selling, but the market beast always does its best to keep things difficult.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SORL +13.8%, APOL +2.7%, CALM +1.6% (light volume)... M&A news: BELM +28.6% (to be acquired by Avnet for $7.00 per share; raises lower end of Q1 rev guidance)... Select financial names showing continued strength: ING +2.3%, CS +1.8%, AIG +1.7% (ILFC's John Plueger to retire), UBS +1.3%, BAC +1.2%, MS +1.0% (will be Citi stake underwriter - CNBC)... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +3.1%, BBL +2.2%, BHP +2.0%, GDX +1.8%, RTP +1.7%, ABX +1.3%, GG +1.3%... Other news: OXBT +29.3% (light volume, has begun distribution for its newly formulated Dermacyte Oxygen Concentrate for the beauty and skin care market; filed for a $75 mln common stock of shelf offering), SATC +5.8% (still checking), VTIV +4.7% (announces approach from investors regarding possible transaction), IOC +4.0% (still checking), ERIC +2.3% (LM Ericsson signs Chinese deals worth $1.8 bln - AP), VIA.B +2.1% (mentioned positively in Barron's), AA +1.8% (still checking), SPWRA +1.8% (completed its acquisition of SunRay Renewable Energy), AAPL +1.3% (still checking for anything specific), ITT +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: STL +5.6% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus; tgt $11), SWN +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman), EOG +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), VALE +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord).
Allapoole avanevad:
General news: AIB -14.8% (confirms that it is in discussions with the Financial Regulator in order to agree its capital requirements), IRE -5.9% (down in sympathy with AIB), AGNC -4.7% (trading ex dividend), ABIO -2.7% (still checking), GTY -2.6% (files $350 mln mixed securities shelf offering in its S-3 filing), PHG -2.3% (trading ex dividend), F -1.0% (reaches agreement to sell Volvo Cars and related assets to Geely; sale expected to close in 3Q; announces secondary public offering by UAW VEBA of 362,391,305 warrants to purchase common stock at an exercise price of $9.20 per share)... Analyst comments: DWA -4.7% (Dragon opening weekend doesn't slay moviegoers: Only $43 mln in sales, expect some DWA weakness - Wedbush), LNCR -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), PEET -1.1% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR Capital).
March Dallas Manufacturing Activity +7.2% vs +5.2% consensus
CDC says seeing "worrisome H1N1 trend" in southeastern US - CNBC
Uudisest said kerge tõuke SVA,BCRX, NVAX, HEB.
Uudisest said kerge tõuke SVA,BCRX, NVAX, HEB.
OPEC will not let oil price rise too high, OPEC chief says - WSJ
AAPL rallis järelturul pea ~$236 tasemeni sellise uudise toel:
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Apple is working on an iPhone for summer release.
The Journal also reports that Apple is building a CDMA version for Verizon.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Apple is working on an iPhone for summer release.
The Journal also reports that Apple is building a CDMA version for Verizon.
Short some T & PALM selle AAPL uudise peale:
* T jaoks on iPhone päris paljudele AINUS põhjus, miks AT&T võrgus olla.. nüüd kaotavad kõvasti kliente väga suure tõenäosusega
* PALM on nüüd veel palju suurema tõenäosusega pankroticase. VZ oli nende põhiline müügikanal ja see uudis näitab, et no way Verizon enam Palmi asju haibib.
Pakuks homseks T mingi -4% ja PALM -10% või rohkemgi.
* T jaoks on iPhone päris paljudele AINUS põhjus, miks AT&T võrgus olla.. nüüd kaotavad kõvasti kliente väga suure tõenäosusega
* PALM on nüüd veel palju suurema tõenäosusega pankroticase. VZ oli nende põhiline müügikanal ja see uudis näitab, et no way Verizon enam Palmi asju haibib.
Pakuks homseks T mingi -4% ja PALM -10% või rohkemgi.
Ja juba jõutud $239 alla.