Panin veel veerandi SKF ikkagi $139 pealt kinni, MER hakkab ära vajuma.
nice, SKF
Don't Fight This Phase of the Cycle
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/29/2008 8:28 AM EDT
In all things there is a law of cycles.
----- Publius Cornelius Tacitus, Roman Historian (55-117 AD)
The market action right now is downright dismal. Other than a few biotechnology and medical-related stocks, almost nothing is working to the upside. The technical conditions are poor, but volatility and sentiment measures are not extreme enough to indicate that a complete washout is at hand.
The most important thing you can do is simply realize that cycles of good and bad are the nature of the stock market beast. We are in an ugly down cycle right now and we should embrace that fact rather than try to fight it. The cycle will eventually turn up again and we just have to be patient and wait for it to happen.
What often adds to the difficulty of dealing with a tough market like this is the constant, anxious predictions by market pundits that a turn is coming. Over and over again they try to predict the turn that they want so badly. It isn't so much that they really believe that a turn is coming but that they want it and project their desires onto the market.
It may sound overly-simplistic, but many billions, if not trillions, of losses would be avoided if people simply stopped trying to battle the fact that the market is acting poorly. Just embrace the fact that we are in a poor cycle and stand aside until the trend starts to turn up. At that point, you will be far ahead of the game.
The market triggers a lot of complex psychology in people. The potential for gains is always there and it is very hard to resist that siren song even when things are acting so poorly.
Eventually people become discouraged and give up, which gives us a bottom, but the market will keep enticing us with minor bounces and rallies as it tries to take our money in a bear market.
The way to deal with this market is to be self-aware. Are you denying the fact that we are in a bear market? Are you trying to force long trades in a market where they don't work? Do you have a style and time frame that allows you to profit in this environment? If not, are you staying in cash and standing aside?
Sooner or later the cycle will turn again and we will forget all the pain and anguish of this bear market. But if you keep fighting the inevitable, the misery will be much worse.
We have a slightly positive open as the market (for some reason that escapes me) seems pleased by the fact that Merrill Lynch (MER) is acknowledging further losses. Overseas markets were weak and oil and gold are trading down slightly.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TUNE +9.2% (light volume), PRGX +7.4%, SAP +6.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank and upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), ALU +6.3%, WBSN +5.7% (also upgraded to Buy at Soleil), VECO +5.4% (light volume), X +5.3%, WMGI +5.3%, MTW +5.2%, UA +5.1%, MIG +4.7% (light volume), HIG +4.4%, WLT +4.3%, AMGN +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup and upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill), GTI +3.7%, ELNK +3.7%, AG +3.6%, BP +2.0%, CLR +2.0%, CR +1.5%, NOV +1.2%, SPNC +1.0%, AUTH +1.0%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength: BBL +4.5%, MT +4.0%, BHP +4.0%, AAUK +3.9%, RTP +2.7%, GOLD +2.4%... Other monoline insurers trading higher following XL, SCA, MER news: ABK +14.9%, MBI +14.8%... Other news: SCA +82.7% (believes that its case reserves will have increased substantially as of June 30, 2008; also announces agreement with MER related to XL settlement), CNQR +6.5% (Concur Tech and American Express enter into exclusive alliance to offer corporate clients T&E expense management services), NUE +4.0% (up in sympathy with X), STP +1.9% (30MW supply agreement with Enel.si), CMTL +1.1% (receives $7.6 million of movement tracking system orders)... Analyst comments: V +1.3% (initiated with Buy at KeyBanc).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CGNX -22.6%, NWK -20.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), TRID -17.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), PLXT -17.1%, ZRAN -16.7% (also downgraded to Buy at Needham and downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at J.P Morgan), BANR -14.2%, IAR -13.6% (light volume), CMP -12.7%, HLIT -10.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), XL -10.2% (also announces $2.5 bln share offering; downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Fox Pitt), SEPR -10.1%, JDAS -10.1%, ININ -8.7%, LDSH -7.5%, ATHR -6.1%, CYH -6.0% (light volume), SNE -5.4% (also in talks to buy out Sony BMG Music - Reuters), COH -5.2%, LCAV -4.7%, MSO -4.6%, PCX -3.5%, MOS -3.4%, AATI -2.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform at JMP), RCII -2.1%... M&A news: SIRI -17.6% and XMSR -5.3% (Sirius Satellite and XM complete merger)... Select European financials trading lower following weakness overseas: BCS -5.1% , RBS -4.1% , UBS -3.7% , AXA -1.3% , HBC -1.0%... Other news: CPCI -24.6% (discloses that the it filed a voluntary petition in the United States Bankruptcy Court pursuant to Chapter 11), PSSI -2.4% (announces proposed offering of $200 mln of convertible senior notes)... Analyst comments: OVTI -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), CWTR -2.8% (initiated with Sell at Goldman - DJ).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/29/2008 8:28 AM EDT
In all things there is a law of cycles.
----- Publius Cornelius Tacitus, Roman Historian (55-117 AD)
The market action right now is downright dismal. Other than a few biotechnology and medical-related stocks, almost nothing is working to the upside. The technical conditions are poor, but volatility and sentiment measures are not extreme enough to indicate that a complete washout is at hand.
The most important thing you can do is simply realize that cycles of good and bad are the nature of the stock market beast. We are in an ugly down cycle right now and we should embrace that fact rather than try to fight it. The cycle will eventually turn up again and we just have to be patient and wait for it to happen.
What often adds to the difficulty of dealing with a tough market like this is the constant, anxious predictions by market pundits that a turn is coming. Over and over again they try to predict the turn that they want so badly. It isn't so much that they really believe that a turn is coming but that they want it and project their desires onto the market.
It may sound overly-simplistic, but many billions, if not trillions, of losses would be avoided if people simply stopped trying to battle the fact that the market is acting poorly. Just embrace the fact that we are in a poor cycle and stand aside until the trend starts to turn up. At that point, you will be far ahead of the game.
The market triggers a lot of complex psychology in people. The potential for gains is always there and it is very hard to resist that siren song even when things are acting so poorly.
Eventually people become discouraged and give up, which gives us a bottom, but the market will keep enticing us with minor bounces and rallies as it tries to take our money in a bear market.
The way to deal with this market is to be self-aware. Are you denying the fact that we are in a bear market? Are you trying to force long trades in a market where they don't work? Do you have a style and time frame that allows you to profit in this environment? If not, are you staying in cash and standing aside?
Sooner or later the cycle will turn again and we will forget all the pain and anguish of this bear market. But if you keep fighting the inevitable, the misery will be much worse.
We have a slightly positive open as the market (for some reason that escapes me) seems pleased by the fact that Merrill Lynch (MER) is acknowledging further losses. Overseas markets were weak and oil and gold are trading down slightly.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TUNE +9.2% (light volume), PRGX +7.4%, SAP +6.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank and upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), ALU +6.3%, WBSN +5.7% (also upgraded to Buy at Soleil), VECO +5.4% (light volume), X +5.3%, WMGI +5.3%, MTW +5.2%, UA +5.1%, MIG +4.7% (light volume), HIG +4.4%, WLT +4.3%, AMGN +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup and upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill), GTI +3.7%, ELNK +3.7%, AG +3.6%, BP +2.0%, CLR +2.0%, CR +1.5%, NOV +1.2%, SPNC +1.0%, AUTH +1.0%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength: BBL +4.5%, MT +4.0%, BHP +4.0%, AAUK +3.9%, RTP +2.7%, GOLD +2.4%... Other monoline insurers trading higher following XL, SCA, MER news: ABK +14.9%, MBI +14.8%... Other news: SCA +82.7% (believes that its case reserves will have increased substantially as of June 30, 2008; also announces agreement with MER related to XL settlement), CNQR +6.5% (Concur Tech and American Express enter into exclusive alliance to offer corporate clients T&E expense management services), NUE +4.0% (up in sympathy with X), STP +1.9% (30MW supply agreement with Enel.si), CMTL +1.1% (receives $7.6 million of movement tracking system orders)... Analyst comments: V +1.3% (initiated with Buy at KeyBanc).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CGNX -22.6%, NWK -20.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), TRID -17.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Needham), PLXT -17.1%, ZRAN -16.7% (also downgraded to Buy at Needham and downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at J.P Morgan), BANR -14.2%, IAR -13.6% (light volume), CMP -12.7%, HLIT -10.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), XL -10.2% (also announces $2.5 bln share offering; downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Fox Pitt), SEPR -10.1%, JDAS -10.1%, ININ -8.7%, LDSH -7.5%, ATHR -6.1%, CYH -6.0% (light volume), SNE -5.4% (also in talks to buy out Sony BMG Music - Reuters), COH -5.2%, LCAV -4.7%, MSO -4.6%, PCX -3.5%, MOS -3.4%, AATI -2.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform at JMP), RCII -2.1%... M&A news: SIRI -17.6% and XMSR -5.3% (Sirius Satellite and XM complete merger)... Select European financials trading lower following weakness overseas: BCS -5.1% , RBS -4.1% , UBS -3.7% , AXA -1.3% , HBC -1.0%... Other news: CPCI -24.6% (discloses that the it filed a voluntary petition in the United States Bankruptcy Court pursuant to Chapter 11), PSSI -2.4% (announces proposed offering of $200 mln of convertible senior notes)... Analyst comments: OVTI -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), CWTR -2.8% (initiated with Sell at Goldman - DJ).
Merrill Lynch (MER) shares placed at $22.50 a share vahendas Bloomberg.
SKF kinni kõik $140 juurest, liiga närviline värk.
Euroopa ja Aasia langesid:
Saksamaa DAX -0.36%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.86%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.33%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.44%
Venemaa MICEX -0.96%
Poola WIG -0.45%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.46%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.89%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.82%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.55%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.60%
Tai Set 50 -1.64%
India Sensex -3.89%
Long MER $22.5 juurest, savi sellest pricingust, firma jaoks on see kokkuvõttes ikkagi riske vähendav, seega positiivne sündmus.
Ja eks hakkame siis $23 juurest müüma MER.
hea trade jim, 5 minutiga pea punktine liikumine...
Ja flat MER, viimane jupp $23.44 pealt.
Oodatust parem:
July Consumer Confidence 51.9 vs 50.1 consensus, prior revised to 51.0 from 50.4
July Consumer Confidence 51.9 vs 50.1 consensus, prior revised to 51.0 from 50.4
Nafta hind teeb uusi põhjasid - barreli hind $121.5. Rõõmustagem autojuhid, rõõmustagem...
The Michigan index is almost identical to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index ... ehk reedene Michigan vihjas juba oodatust paremale
09:56 ECONX University of Michigan Sentiment-revised 61.2 vs 56.4 consensus
09:56 ECONX University of Michigan Sentiment-revised 61.2 vs 56.4 consensus
Short AG @ $58.3. Kui Merrilli Focus list ei tööta ja asi on 11% üleval, siis tuleb lihtsalt seda shortida.
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.34 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.37 better than the First Call consensus of $0.97; revenues rose 40.0% year/year to $2.4 bln vs the $2.17 bln consensus
Merril andis mingi kommentaari või?
Merril andis mingi kommentaari või?
Jep, andis, otsi üles, kuskohas see toimus :D
Haige turg..võiks alla tulla,eriti kui shordid mängus
Kaetud AG jupikaupa $58.04...$57.16.
chatis
14:47 Magnitude 5.8 quake hits greater Los Angeles area, USGS says - Bloomberg