Börsipäev 28. november

Investeerimine
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Euroopa turud ka täna nõrkust näitamas ning eile näitasid mitmed arenevad turud samuti päris tugevat nõrkust. Kuulda on, et fondid on oma pikki positsioone tõstnud päris kõvast. Aga natuke teisel teemal. Peale Cyber esmaspäeva ei ole selline uudis küll heade killast:

WSJ reports on Amazon.com's Top 10 selling list for electronics yesterday, seven of the 10 products were digital media players. Nowhere did the Microsoft or Zune names appear. "That's a pretty good indicator of consumer interest," Michael Gartenberg of industry group Jupiter Research said yesterday, one of the busiest days of the year with online shoppers. The 30-gigabyte Zune player from Microsoft was on the Top 10 list of Amazon (AMZN) for several days after its release on Nov. 14 before dropping off. But yesterday, the most popular model of the Zune, the black version, was at No. 76. The Top 10 digital media players included six iPods from top-seller Apple Computer (AAPL) and one MP3 player from SanDisk (SNDK). "The product [Zune] wasn't particularly attractive. At the end of the day, you put it on a shelf and it just didn't compare," said Rob Enderle of research firm Enderle Group. Sales of Zune in the first week after the Nov. 14 launch were "exactly within our expectations," a Microsoft spokeswoman said. She added that she is still awaiting information for holiday weekend sales.

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Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Netflix (NFLX 28.97) with a Buy and $39 tgt, as they believe the co has several key competitive advantages that are likely to persist and drive its business for several years, including its technology/logistics infrastructure, brand/customer base, and consumer preference/usage data.

Lehman Brothers upgrades Freeport McMoRan (FCX 61.45) to Overweight from Equal-Weight

Wachovia initiates Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME 532.77) with a Market Perform, as their 2008 earnings estimate is in line with consensus

Wachovia initiates Intercontinental Exchange (ICE 100.62) with an Outperform, as they believe that the firm's management will be able to create meaningful earnings accretion due to the New York Board of Trade acquisition

Wachovia initiates International Securities Exchange (ISE 52.30) with a Market Perform, as they believe pressure on pricing will continue despite growing industry volume and favor companies in the futures markets due to better pricing power.

Bofa downgrades United Natural Foods (UNFI 36.00) to Neutral from Buy

Jefferies initiates MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR 38.10) with a Buy and $54 tgt, based on an improving earnings outlook that they believe will drive annual earnings growth of 30% through 2010, and feel that MEMC is significantly less cyclical than five years ago because of diversification into the solar industry and consolidation in the semiconductor wafer industry

Credit Suisse reinstates coverage of International Paper (IP 32.22) with an Outperform and $39 tgt, saying while IP has a lot to do to make its new strategic direction pay off for investors, they think the risk/reward in the stock at today's prices is attractive

NOK expects industry mobile device volumes in 2007 to grow by up to 10% from the approx 970 mln units NOK ests for Y06. They expect the volume growth in Y07 to be above 15% in Asia Pacific, China, and Middle East & Africa, and below 10% in Europe, Latin America and North America. Co expects the device industry to experience value growth in Y07, but expects some decline in industry ASPs, primarily reflecting the increasing impact of the emerging markets and competitive factors in general. Co now forecasts that the three billion mobile subscriptions mark will be reached in Y07, instead of in Y08 as NOK forecasted previously. Co expects slight growth in the mobile and fixed infrastructure and related services market in euro terms in Y07.

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Ma küll ei ole klient, aga austan BCA researci arvamust juba pikka aega. Nende arvamus USA ettevõtete kasumi ja käibekasvu osas:

The third quarter marked the peak in U.S. corporate profit growth.

Earnings per share for the S&P 500 increased at a 20% annual rate in the third quarter, the fastest in more than two years. What is most remarkable is that this acceleration occurred even as revenue growth was slowing. The recent divergence between earnings and revenue growth is especially surprising because firms typically find it increasingly hard to contain costs this late in the cycle. Indeed, it is difficult to square the sharp rise in unit labor costs with the improvement in profit margins as revenue growth has slowed. Aggressive share buybacks are boosting earnings per share, but they do not fully explain the profit margin “conundrum”. Nonetheless, with the U.S. economy set to decelerate, both profit margins and earnings growth will moderate in the year ahead, albeit not so much as to derail the equity market advance.

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Durable Orders -8.3% vs -5.0% consensus
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Täpsem kommentaar hommikuse UBS hinnasihi liigutamise osas. Võimalik, et call pakub pigem hea shortimiskoha.

UBS raised their tgt on AAPL to $108 from $95. The firms checks point to solid iPod sales for new shuffles and certain Nanos along with momentum in Macs for higher accessories & software longer term. They continue to believe AAPL will launch new products in calendar '07, including cell phones, iTV & even ultraportable devices. Firm raises their 1Q07 EPS est to $0.80 (consensus $0.76) from $0.78, and raises their FY07 EPS est to $2.84 (consensus $2.71) from $2.75.

Amtech believes that OVTI's share price has appreciated in the past 2 weeks mostly on take-out rumors. Fundamentally however, they argue the co is two quarters or more away from end demand strengthening or ASP stabilization. Beyond two quarters, firm believes the niche markets that OVTI is seeding today are unlikely to mature into material businesses within the next 12-18 months. Once again firm is concerned that OVTI may report that handset demand has been below expectations with both mix and pricing compressing the gross margin below consensus views. Maintain Neutral and $15 tgt.

Täna saab Ralph Lauren (RL) positiivseid kommentaare. Kui oktoobri alguses Prudential mainis, et aktsia võib maksta $90 ning tõstis oma hinnasihi $78 peale, siis täna Morgan Stanley aktsia hinnasihi $90 peale panebki.

Lisaks kommentaarid Bofa poolt:

November comps preview; anticipate good results from AEOS; signals bode well for PVH and RL - BofA : BofA previews Nov comps and anticipates a highlight to be American Eagle (AEOS). Firm ests 12-14% for the month and notes a disappointment could be Christopher & Banks (CBK). Their est is (4)-(6)%. Firm believes Saks (SKS) continues to be one of their favorite names here. A number of factors stand to boost Dec this year. These include an extra pre-Christmas day in the Dec fiscal month, the trend of shoppers buying closer to the holiday and a full weekend of shopping on the 23rd and 24th as Christmas falls on a Monday. Overall, they foresee Dec being an even more pivotal month within the quarter than it traditionally has been. Firm also maintains their top picks as preferences given their look at how "Black Friday" appears to have played out for the names they cover. Various signals bode well for their Buy-rated names Phillips Van Heusen (PVH) and Polo Ralph Lauren (RL). They also note positives for Under Armour (UARM), Columbia (COLM) and others though they see warm weather as a key risk for outdoor brands and retailers.

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Dip or Deluge? How to Sleuth It Out
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/28/2006 8:35 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"Discovery consists of looking at the same thing as everyone else and thinking something different."

-- Albert Szent-Gyorgyi

There was nothing subtle about the poor action yesterday. The indices were down on big volume, breadth was terrible, volume was higher and technical trendlines were breached. This wasn't just some mild profit taking; it was broad-based, aggressive selling.

The breadth was particularly poor. As noted on TCNet, 2,729 of the stocks in the Russell 3000 declined on higher volume. Of course, Friday was only a half day so volume was likely to increase, but that is still very lopsided performance.

But rather than belabor yesterday's poor action, we need to analyze whether it indicates the market will undergo a change in trend. Was this just a healthy shot of selling in response to a high level of complacency and too much bullishness, or a tip-off that we have more downside to come?

Some folks argue that nothing really changed all of sudden so we shouldn't assume that the character of the market is likely to change. Sure, the weak dollar, rising oil and a disappointing Wal-Mart had an effect, these folks say, but the big picture remains the same so we should just continue to plod along.

That logic is flawed.

The market doesn't need an external event to change character. In fact, markets tend to make meaningful reverses on minor catalysts all the time. The issue isn't the news but the psychology of market players. They are a fickle bunch and it doesn't take much for them to start seeing negatives where positives existed before. When the primary focus shifts from racking up gains in a parabolic market to protecting profits, the nature of the market will shift regardless of external news events.

Don't get sucked into using macro-economic analysis of the market to ignore technical action that may indicate a change in investor mood. News is never inherently positive or negative. Its nature depends on context and the price action of the market will let us know what the attitude is. For a while now all of the news has been good news and we can't assume that will continue to be the case.

If we don't try to read too much into the big-picture economic news, that means we need to focus on the technicals.

Although the action yesterday was quite poor and should make us more cautious, it was not enough on its own to destroy the four-month uptrend that we have been riding. It is very possible we may shrug off yesterday as an aberration and continue on our way. Our job is to examine the action and measure whether it is healthy and indicates a full recovery is likely, or a precursor to further downside.

We need to focus on indicators such as breadth, leadership, the aggressiveness of buyers once we bounce, the tendency to sell into strength on a recovery and the many subtle signs that tell us whether the dominate emotion out there is using strength to lock in profits or using weakness to buy bargains.

Be ready to do some detective work today and see if we can make some discoveries about the health of this market.

We have a tentative open the morning as overseas markets were mostly lower in sympathy with our poor action yesterday. The dollar continues its fall, oil is up again but gold is down.

At the time of publication, DePorre had no position in stock mentioned.
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Eilne kauplemispäev toetas varasemat nägemust selles osas, kui indikaatorid ning indeksid omavahel erisuundades liiguvad. Nagu näeme pildilt, tuli eile Nasdaq üle paari protsendi võrra madalamale. Kuna tühjendusmüük oli suhteliselt suure käibega ning nii VIX kui Put/Call ratio tegid suure hüppe üles, siis nagu ma ka varem mainitud, praegusel hetkel ma 20 päeva libisevalt keskmiselt enam toetust ei otsiks.

Suvel alanud stabiilne tõus on olnud väga positiivse sentimendiga ning nii mõnelgi korral on ignoreeritud kauplemise seisukohalt väga olulisi sündmusi. Kas pidu on möödas? Igatahes näitavad indikaatorid küll, et alla liikumiseks on põhjust veelgi. Horisontaalsetelt tasemetelt samuti toetust ei otsiks ja praegu jään jälgima 50 päeva libisevat keskmist esimese suurema toetuskohana. Indikaatoritest RSI on tulnud kiirelt üleostetud tsoonist alla ning jäänud tõusutrendi kauplemisvahemiku peale. Allapoole liikumine on taaskord halvaks signaaliks. Vaadates DJIA graafikut, siis sealne pilt on jätkuvalt tehniliselt nutusem. Läbi on kukutud nii 20 päeva MAst kui RSI kauplemisvahemikust. DJIA indikaatoritega vastassuunalisem liikumine oli graafikutel ka selgemini näha.

Lisan allapoole Nasdaq pikema graafiku. Kui tõmmata viimase kahe aasta tippude ja põhjade juurde vastupanu ja toetusjoon, võiksime eeldada, et Nasdaq pikemaajalisem alla liikumine on tehniliselt veelgi selgem, kui seda lühemalt graafiukult märgata võiks. Lähipäevad näitavad, kas turg arvab sama moodi.

Graafikud:
VIX
Put/Call

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IYR (Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF) Dec 81 puts are seeing interest with 4850 contracts trading vs. open interest of 570, pushing implied volatility up slightly
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USA Föderaalreservi endine juht Greenspan on ka sõna võtmas dollari languse üle:

'Greenspan says current account gap is 'undervaluing' dollar- Bloomberg'