Ning enne, kui kauplemine üldse 28. jaanuari hommikul USA turul on alata saanud, vaatab oodatava Obama bad-bank plaani tõttu finantssektorist vastu just selline pilt. Lühikeste positsioonide omanikud on ööga grillvarda otsa tõmmatud, õun suhu pistetud ja lõkke kohale küpsema pandud.
Futuurid juba üle 2% plussis, ilma teeb finantssektor. Wells Fargo (WFC) head tulemused ning spekulatsioonide jätkumine, et halbade laenude ülevõtmiseks mõeldud "bad bank'i" loomisest teatatakse juba järgmisel nädalal, on indekseid kõrgemale vedanud. Finantssektori liikumist jäljendav kolmekordse võimendusega börsil kaubeldav fond FAS eelturul juba +24%.
Expect Frenzied Action on the 'Bad Bank' Plan By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 1/28/2009 8:04 AM EST
Maybe all one can do is hope to end up with the right regrets. -- Arthur Miller
I discussed yesterday how the technical setup of the markets was becoming more bearish as we have rallied back toward overhead resistance on declining volume. This sort of pattern is called a bearish wedge, as there is a high degree of danger that the uptrend will fail.
This morning the market is quite excited over talk about a "bad bank" plan in which the federal government buys "bad" and illiquid debt held by financial institutions. The goal is to help clean up balance sheets and to push banks to increase lending. Once again there are high hopes that maybe we'll find some solutions to our overwhelming economic problems.
We are going to have all sorts of discussions today about whether such a plan is good or bad. Plenty of folks will be unhappy about how deeply the federal government is becoming involved in private enterprise, but many others will argue that we really have no choice because the alternatives are so bad. One thing we can be sure of is that the government is going to keep trying to do something, which at least will make some people more hopeful.
I'll let others figure out if the "bad bank" program is a good move or not. What we do know is that we are going to see a strong positive reaction this morning in an environment with a technical setup that was developing in a bearish fashion. The gap up this morning is going to invite some quick profit-taking, but the bigger question is whether this news will then give the market some significant underlying support.
The biggest problem for the bulls is that this isn't totally unexpected news. The financials have been inching up in anticipation of another in a series of attempts to bail out the banks. So far, nothing has had a lasting impact on banks.
Take a look at the market action on Sept. 19, when the first TARP program was announced. We had a big opening gap in the morning. We hit the high near the open after the announcement and gave it back completely over the next couple of days. Not only did the gain on the first TARP announcement fizzle fast, it helped to trigger a vicious downside move that took us to the lows of this past November. If you bought on the first TARP announcement, you were killed.
I'm not looking for anything so drastic to occur this time, but I certainly would not be looking to chase the strength caused by this news. In fact, I'll be looking for some short opportunities into this strength. If you are inclined to be a buyer, at least let the initial excitement cool off before you make any big moves.
It is going to be a very chaotic day of trading, with lots of the talking heads getting excited about this "bad bank" program. Before you get sucked into the excitement, keep in mind that every recent strong market move following a new government program was a good shorting opportunity. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VPRT +32.6% (also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), WFC +22.0% (also maintains common stock dividend of $0.34 per share), ETFC +14.5%, BSY +9.2%, JAVA +7.8%, BBV +6.2%, YHOO +6.2%, BBOX +5.5%, SAP +5.1%, SYK +4.8%, CSGS +4.3%, DMND +2.8%, NSC +2.3%, T +1.6%... M&A news: AVNX +34.6% (Bookham and Avanex agree to merger)... Select financials are trading sharply higher in the pre-mkt following reports that a "bad bank" plan could be announced as early as next week : LYG +42.4% (also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), BCS +27.4%, C +21.1%, SOV +17.8%, DB +17.4%, RF +15.2%, FITB +14.9%, BAC +14.6%, STI +13.0%, HBC +10.4%, ABK +9.6%, STT +9.5%, ZION +9.4%, JPM +8.7%, XL +8.5%, STD +8.0%, AIB +8.0%, PNC +7.7%, USB +7.3%, UBS +6.3%, HIG +6.2%, CIT +6.1%, USB +6.1%, MS +6.0%, COF +5.9%, PRU +5.3%, GS +4.8%, MA +3.1%, V +3.0%, MBI +2.8%, NTRS +1.9%, MTG +1.8%, AIG +1.5%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +5.1%, BBL +4.9%, AAUK +4.5%, BHP +4.1%, RIO +4.0%, GOLD +1.4%... Select drybulk shippers showing strength: DRYS +8.8%, DSX +6.6%, EXM +4.5%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: DO +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), BP +2.7%, TOT +2.7% (launches public offer to acquire UTS), RDS.A +2.2%... Other news: EXAS +34.2% (announces strategic transaction with Genzyme including intellectual property asset purchase and equity investment), VE +6.2% (jumps in Europe trading on a report that US funds eyeing the co - DJ), LUX +4.2% (the co and Tory Burch announced the signing of a license agreement), CMA +3.3% (declares dividend of $0.05, down from prior dividend of $0.33), TUP +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: AFL +9.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), PHG +6.0% (upgraded to Hold at ING), FCX +4.8% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord Adams), DISH +4.4% (upgraded to Buy at Goldman - DJ), CLX +2.2% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup), QCOM +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Charter Equity), MCHP +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CNB -20.9% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette and downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), RFMD -15.6%, LM -12.6%, TEL -10.1%, MOLX -5.9%, AMLN -5.9% (also downgraded to Sell from Hold at Canaccord Adams), PLT -5.8%, DV -4.8%, NVS -4.0%, CAJ -2.2%, WLP -1.5%... Other news: ALD -28.9% (re-opens amendment discussions with its lenders under revolving credit facility and holders of private notes), QELP -26.3% (suspends quarterly distribution on common units), CENX -18.4% (announces a $100 mln common stock offering under an existing shelf registration statement), CP -6.1% (announces common equity offering of 12.6 mln shares at C$36.75), NEM -2.9% (announces proposed common stock and convertible notes offerings to raise ~$1.2 bln and plans to acquire remaining interest in Boddington project in western Australia), RTP -1.6% (Rio Tinto flags possible equity raising - Reuters).
0k, huvitav info viimase aja natsionaliseerimisehirmu taustal. Singapuri valitsus omandus vist uudis ei ole, selle suurenemine üle 5 % vast? Citi suuromanike seltskond tundub päris kirju, araabia printsid ja aasia valitsused ..
Inflation pressures to remain subdued in coming qtrs Fed says Sees Gradual Recovery In Econ Activity Later This Yr FOMC statement does not change interest rate directive; holds target at 0-0.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term. The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.
Retoorika on sama, aga kindlat Treasury'te ostuplaani ka justkui pole. Proovitakse bilansi jõulist suurendamist vältida, jutuga hoitakse määrad madalal, aga kui vaja, siis tegutsetakse.
Eeemm, The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets.
Jah, seda mõtlesingi. Kui vaja, siis tegutsetakse. Nad on valmis olnud juba eelmise aasta lõpust, kindlat tegutsemist pole aga järgnenud. Täna lootis turg sellele vihjet.
'particularly effective'... iseenesest 'particularly effective' olukorda on raske näha ning pigem meenutab see suuga suure linna ehitamist ning lootust, et käega ei pea kärbsepesagi tegema.
Paari päeva eest kõlanud finantsi shortimine nädala lõpuni sobiks paremini nüüd. Nii umbes 70-40 shansiga :D - tõenäoline rallijärgne kasumivõtt homme - musta värviga tööpuuduse raport homme ja Q4 final GDP ülehomme Riskiks väike trendipäeva võimalus täna, kui see maagilin 860 joon murdub ..
