Jaapani krediidireitingu langetamine ning nõrkus tooraineturul on survestanud Aasia turge, kus indeksid kauplevad valdavalt miinuspoolel. Väga varajastel hommikutundidel on ca 0,1-0,2% punases liikumas ka USA futuurid.
Tänase päeva kõige olulisemaks sündmuseks saab olema USA neljanda kvartali SKT avaldamine (kell 15.30) ning konsensuse arvates võis riigi majandus kasvada 3,7%, kiirenedes kolmanda kvartali 2,6%-ga võrreldes. Lisaks avaldatakse kell 16.55 jaanuarikuu Michigani sentimendi lõplik näit.
Majandustulemused avaldavad enne USA turu avanemist Chevron, Ford, Honeywell.
Lisaks Jaapanile on käesoleval nädalal reitinguagentuurid murettekitava pilguga jälgimas ka USA finantsseisu. Via Bloomberg : Moody's Says Time Running Out for U.S. as S&P Cuts Japan
Although no rating action is contemplated at this time, the time frame for possible future actions appears to be shortening, and the probability of assigning a negative outlook in the coming two years is rising
Eurotsooni rahapakkumine M3 kasvas detsembris 1,7% vs oodatud 1,9% (Y/Y).
Kulla veebruari futuur langes täna varahommikul $1307 tasemeni, kus kaubeldi viimati 30. septembril.
Morgan Stanley on alloleval graafikul välja toonud fakti, et pärast ECB hoiatavaid kommentaare inflatsiooni osas on turg pidamas tänavu tõenäoliseks intressimäära tõstmist rohkem kui kahel korral (2010.a lõpus oli ootuseks jämedalt üks tõstmine). Samal ajal on aga turg võrreldes 2010.a lõpuga vähendanud oma ootusi FED-i intressi tõstmise osas. See olnud üheks toetavaks faktoriks euro tugevnemisel dollari vastu.
MS-i taktikaline euro short idee jooksis küll liiva, kuid analüüsimaja jääb eurotsooni võlaprobleemide osas jätkuvalt negatiivsele arvamusele ning nüüdsest ollakse lühikese positsooni võtmisel ettevaatlikumad ning otsitakse sisenemise kohta pealpool 1,39 taset.
MS-i taktikaline euro short idee jooksis küll liiva, kuid analüüsimaja jääb eurotsooni võlaprobleemide osas jätkuvalt negatiivsele arvamusele ning nüüdsest ollakse lühikese positsooni võtmisel ettevaatlikumad ning otsitakse sisenemise kohta pealpool 1,39 taset.
The shifting outlook on the ECB is not just a byproduct of a more buoyant Euro-area economic outlook, but also the moderation of concerns about sovereign risk in the wake of this month’s over-subscribed auctions. A continuing easing of sovereign concerns would allow the ECB to gradually withdraw its support buying of peripheral European bonds, making it easier for them to shift to a tighter monetary policy. But, here too, we think the market will be disappointed.
The European community and IMF have jointly put in place adequate facilities to secure financing of most peripheral European bond rollovers for the next two-three years. But then what? Exhibit 4 shows why the sovereign situation is not likely to materially improve in the next few years. The key problem is that most European sovereigns’ borrowing costs are higher than nominal GDP growth – and in some cases like Greece and Ireland considerably more. Under these circumstances, it will be very difficult to see any reduction in debt/GDP ratios.
We think that it is only a matter of time before an event emerges that forces the market to refocus on the still-dim long-term debt situation. The coming Irish elections are a key risk event but there is also the ongoing possibility of an auction failing. As with a weaker growth outlook, a resurgence of sovereign concerns would force the market to push back expectations for ECB hikes which should spark renewed EUR weakness.
Mongoolia aktsiaturul on küll hullus lahti läinud. 2011. aasta tootlus aasta algusest on tänase seisuga +65%. Sealne aktsiaturg on küll väga ebalikviidne, aga kui üks frontier aktsiaturg nii lühikese ajaga nii palju tõuseb, siis tekib küll küsimus, et kas investorid ei ole juba liiga optimistlikuks muutunud.
Tulemuste tabel taas täiendatud ning nähtav siin.
Euroopa keskpanga president Jean-Claude Trichet ütles Davoses peetaval konverentsil, et "kuigi mõnel Euroopa riigil on lahendamist vajavad probleemid, ei ole euro ise kriisis". "No European currency crisis. That is absolutely obvious."
Elu Hispaanias pole kerge - tööpuudus jätkas 4. kvartalis kasvamist:
Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate 20.33% vs 19.79% in Q3
Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate 20.33% vs 19.79% in Q3
Seoses mässudega on Egiptuse valitsus (väidetavalt) interneti kinni pannud. Täpsemalt saab lugeda siit.
Confirming what a few have reported this evening: in an action unprecedented in Internet history, the Egyptian government appears to have ordered service providers to shut down all international connections to the Internet. Critical European-Asian fiber-optic routes through Egypt appear to be unaffected for now. But every Egyptian provider, every business, bank, Internet cafe, website, school, embassy, and government office that relied on the big four Egyptian ISPs for their Internet connectivity is now cut off from the rest of the world. Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt, Etisalat Misr, and all their customers and partners are, for the moment, off the air.
Q4 GDP- Advanced +3.2% vs +3.7% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.6%
Q4 Chain Deflator- advanced +0.3% vs +1.5% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.1%
Q4 Chain Deflator- advanced +0.3% vs +1.5% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.1%
Q4 GDP- Advanced +3.2% vs +3.7% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.6%
Q4 Chain Deflator- advanced +0.3% vs +1.5% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.1%
Q4 Personal Consumption 4.4%
Q4 Employment Cost Index +0.4% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
Core PCE Q/Q 0.4%
Turud jäid esimese hooga mõtesse, kuid nüüd juba liigutakse kõrgemale ning futuurid hetkel +0,15-0,3% plussis.
Q4 Chain Deflator- advanced +0.3% vs +1.5% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.1%
Q4 Personal Consumption 4.4%
Q4 Employment Cost Index +0.4% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus
Core PCE Q/Q 0.4%
Turud jäid esimese hooga mõtesse, kuid nüüd juba liigutakse kõrgemale ning futuurid hetkel +0,15-0,3% plussis.
Täna on Morgan Stanely analüütikud väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega ITT Educational Services (ESI) kohta.
Morgan Stanley alandab ESI reitingu „hoia“ pealt“ müü“ peale koos $55 hinnasihiga.
Following an 11% rise in ESI shares since earnings, we are cutting our rating to Underweight and establish a price target of $55. In our view, current valuation does not capture long-term risks. We believe that regardless of the outcome of gainful employment (GE), ESI faces outsized headwinds from rising kohort default rates (CDRs) and a largely fixed cost structure, which is likely to impair future earnings growth.
Analüütikute arvates ei peegelda aktsia praegune hinnatase võimalikke riske tulevikus ja vaatamata sellele, millises vormis tuleb uus GE regulatsioon, siis ESI seisab silmitsi ka kallinevate CDR määradega ning fikseeritud kulude struktuuriga, mis tõenäoliselt mõjutab firma tulude poolt.
Major pressure on operating leverage: As enrollment growth declines, we expect ESI to face significant earnings pressure. The company has operated with one of the laanest cost structures of the publicly traded for-profits (and highest margin) and we expect it will find cost cutting difficult particularly given the need to improve its student outcomes;
• While we see 2011 guidance as realistic, we see heightened risk for 2012 and beyond, and believe valuation is not attractive on longer-term multiples.
Analüütikud prognoosivad, et firma marginaalid satuvad suure surve alla, kuna siiani on ettevõttel nii kulupool kui ka marginaalid olnud kõige kõrgemad sektoris, aga nüüd kus õpilaste arv on vähemaks jäänud, aga samas on nende taset vaja parandada on firmal väga keeruline oma kulusid olulisel määral kärpida.
ESI nagu kõik teisedki haridussektori aktsiad on olnud müügisurve all juba pikemat aega. Selge on see, et kõiki firmasid ühe puuga mõõta ja mõned on teistest veelgi halvemas olukorras ja Morgan Stanely analüütikute sõnul on ESI üheks neist. Morgan Stanley on antud sektorit siiani üsna edukalt katnud ja tänane „müü“ reiting võib tekitada turuosalistel müügimeeleolud küll.
Morgan Stanley alandab ESI reitingu „hoia“ pealt“ müü“ peale koos $55 hinnasihiga.
Following an 11% rise in ESI shares since earnings, we are cutting our rating to Underweight and establish a price target of $55. In our view, current valuation does not capture long-term risks. We believe that regardless of the outcome of gainful employment (GE), ESI faces outsized headwinds from rising kohort default rates (CDRs) and a largely fixed cost structure, which is likely to impair future earnings growth.
Analüütikute arvates ei peegelda aktsia praegune hinnatase võimalikke riske tulevikus ja vaatamata sellele, millises vormis tuleb uus GE regulatsioon, siis ESI seisab silmitsi ka kallinevate CDR määradega ning fikseeritud kulude struktuuriga, mis tõenäoliselt mõjutab firma tulude poolt.
Major pressure on operating leverage: As enrollment growth declines, we expect ESI to face significant earnings pressure. The company has operated with one of the laanest cost structures of the publicly traded for-profits (and highest margin) and we expect it will find cost cutting difficult particularly given the need to improve its student outcomes;
• While we see 2011 guidance as realistic, we see heightened risk for 2012 and beyond, and believe valuation is not attractive on longer-term multiples.
Analüütikud prognoosivad, et firma marginaalid satuvad suure surve alla, kuna siiani on ettevõttel nii kulupool kui ka marginaalid olnud kõige kõrgemad sektoris, aga nüüd kus õpilaste arv on vähemaks jäänud, aga samas on nende taset vaja parandada on firmal väga keeruline oma kulusid olulisel määral kärpida.
ESI nagu kõik teisedki haridussektori aktsiad on olnud müügisurve all juba pikemat aega. Selge on see, et kõiki firmasid ühe puuga mõõta ja mõned on teistest veelgi halvemas olukorras ja Morgan Stanely analüütikute sõnul on ESI üheks neist. Morgan Stanley on antud sektorit siiani üsna edukalt katnud ja tänane „müü“ reiting võib tekitada turuosalistel müügimeeleolud küll.
Möödunud nädalal on USA väikeinvestorid jätkanud oma usu kaotamist aktsiaturgude edasise tõusu osas järgmisel kuuel kuul, kuid nagu näha, siis püsib indeks ajaloolises kontekstis jätkuvalt kõrgel tasemel. Bullish sentimendi osakaal vähenes nädalaga 8,7 protsendipunkti 42% peale ja bearish sentimendi oskaal suurenes 5,2% protsendipunkti 34,3% peale.
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: INFN -17.9% (also downgrades to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), PMCS -14.5%, THOR -12.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird), DRIV -8.5%, MWW -8.4%, AMZN -7.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), F -6.9%, TSRA -5.7%, CRBC -5.7%, ZOLL -4.8% (also removed from Best Ideas List at Wedbush), ACI -4.3%, VPRT -2.7%, SNDK -2%, MYGN -1.8% (ticking lower; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), CPWR -1.5% (light volume), MCRL -0.7%.
Select European financial related names showing weakness: LYG -3.5%, BCS -1.4%, HBC -1.3%, PUK -1.1%, RBS -1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GFI -2.5%, RIO -2.1%, BBL -1.8%, BHP -1.5%, GBG -1.1%, AU -1.0%, MT -0.8%.
Select oil/gas related names under pressure: CEO -4.9%, SSN -4.0%, SDRL -1.1%, SSL -1.1%, MRO -1.0%, STO -0.9%, TOT -0.8%, BP -0.7%.
Coal names ticking lower following ACI results: PCX -1.1%, BTU -0.9%, WLT -0.8%, ANR -0.5%.
Select auto names under pressure following Ford results: TTM -2.3%, GM -2.2%, HMC -1.7%, TM -1.5%,
Other news: GOOD -4.7% (Gladstone Commercial announces that it plans to sell 675K shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), BPL -4.6% (commences a secondary public offering of 4,250,000 limited partner units representing limited partnership interests owned by BGH GP Holdings, LLC), SNY -3.5% (reports randomized Phase III trial evaluating iniparib in patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer did not meet the pre-specified criteria for significance for co-primary endpoints of overall survival and progression-free survival), GSK -2.6% (hearing stopped development of insomnia medical device), BSX -2.2% (reports that the DoJ is suing the co and Guidant over defective heart devices), NILE -1.8% (ticking lower with AMZN).
Analyst comments: BKI -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), JBLU -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), PLD -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), TWC -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: INFN -17.9% (also downgrades to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), PMCS -14.5%, THOR -12.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird), DRIV -8.5%, MWW -8.4%, AMZN -7.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), F -6.9%, TSRA -5.7%, CRBC -5.7%, ZOLL -4.8% (also removed from Best Ideas List at Wedbush), ACI -4.3%, VPRT -2.7%, SNDK -2%, MYGN -1.8% (ticking lower; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), CPWR -1.5% (light volume), MCRL -0.7%.
Select European financial related names showing weakness: LYG -3.5%, BCS -1.4%, HBC -1.3%, PUK -1.1%, RBS -1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GFI -2.5%, RIO -2.1%, BBL -1.8%, BHP -1.5%, GBG -1.1%, AU -1.0%, MT -0.8%.
Select oil/gas related names under pressure: CEO -4.9%, SSN -4.0%, SDRL -1.1%, SSL -1.1%, MRO -1.0%, STO -0.9%, TOT -0.8%, BP -0.7%.
Coal names ticking lower following ACI results: PCX -1.1%, BTU -0.9%, WLT -0.8%, ANR -0.5%.
Select auto names under pressure following Ford results: TTM -2.3%, GM -2.2%, HMC -1.7%, TM -1.5%,
Other news: GOOD -4.7% (Gladstone Commercial announces that it plans to sell 675K shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), BPL -4.6% (commences a secondary public offering of 4,250,000 limited partner units representing limited partnership interests owned by BGH GP Holdings, LLC), SNY -3.5% (reports randomized Phase III trial evaluating iniparib in patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer did not meet the pre-specified criteria for significance for co-primary endpoints of overall survival and progression-free survival), GSK -2.6% (hearing stopped development of insomnia medical device), BSX -2.2% (reports that the DoJ is suing the co and Guidant over defective heart devices), NILE -1.8% (ticking lower with AMZN).
Analyst comments: BKI -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), JBLU -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), PLD -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), TWC -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OPLK +30.4%, OPNT +15.9% (ticking higher), TNAV +13.3%, COHR +11.7%, CBAK +10.6% (light volume), ARAY +9.3%, LSCC +8.8%, SCSC +7.2%, VSEA +6.1%, CPSI +4.8%, INFA +4.4%, RVBD +3.9%, CPHD +3.4%, BXS +3.1%, RMBS +2.5%, FNF +2.5%, KLAC +0.9%, QLGC +0.9% (light volume), .
M&A news: TMRK +35.6% (Verizon to acquire Terremark for $19/share or $1.4 bln).
A few TMRK peers are getting boost following VZ/TMRK takeover news: SVVS +9.1%, INAP +7.7%, EQIX +4.9%.
Other news: BGP +34% (receives refinancing commitment of $550 mln from GE Capital), SVA +9.4% (still checking), AVL +7.8% (reports increase in indicated resources in the Nechalacho rare earth elements deposit, NWT), NUE +1.1% and FFIV +0.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: VTR +0% (initiated with an Outperform at Cowen), MRNA +8.2% (initiated with a Strong Speculative Buy at LifeTech Capital), MDT +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), HUN +0.8% (initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OPLK +30.4%, OPNT +15.9% (ticking higher), TNAV +13.3%, COHR +11.7%, CBAK +10.6% (light volume), ARAY +9.3%, LSCC +8.8%, SCSC +7.2%, VSEA +6.1%, CPSI +4.8%, INFA +4.4%, RVBD +3.9%, CPHD +3.4%, BXS +3.1%, RMBS +2.5%, FNF +2.5%, KLAC +0.9%, QLGC +0.9% (light volume), .
M&A news: TMRK +35.6% (Verizon to acquire Terremark for $19/share or $1.4 bln).
A few TMRK peers are getting boost following VZ/TMRK takeover news: SVVS +9.1%, INAP +7.7%, EQIX +4.9%.
Other news: BGP +34% (receives refinancing commitment of $550 mln from GE Capital), SVA +9.4% (still checking), AVL +7.8% (reports increase in indicated resources in the Nechalacho rare earth elements deposit, NWT), NUE +1.1% and FFIV +0.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: VTR +0% (initiated with an Outperform at Cowen), MRNA +8.2% (initiated with a Strong Speculative Buy at LifeTech Capital), MDT +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), HUN +0.8% (initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie).
Embrace the Madness
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/28/2011 8:55 AM EST
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change your attitude.
--Maya Angelou
Earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) , Microsoft (MSFT) and Ford (F) are being greeted with some selling, but nothing really seems to bother this market very much. I must admit that it's become rather difficult to write about this action, since nothing much seems to change. The selloffs in Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been forgotten, and the bulls are once again secure in their collective belief that this market will endlessly continue going straight upward.
I probably shouldn't complain, as this has meant a good supply long trades. In fact, the biggest frustration for many traders is that the stocks they sell for a profit just keep running higher. With that in mind, though, it'd be nice to have a little variety and some more opportunities.
Basically we have two choices with this market. We can stay focused on negatives and keep looking for reasons that the market is going to reverse at any moment, or we can embrace the strength and try to make money by trading it. I'm sure I don't have to tell you which approach has been working better, but that doesn't mean it's been easy. Any rational market player has to wonder how long this can continue. You have to worry, at least a little bit, about being caught in a sudden reversal. But any such doubts have been costly.
Long-only market players often have a big advantage in a market environment like this, not only because they are staying with the trend, but because they don't waste any time anticipating shorts. They just keep looking for long trades and spend far less time worrying about the possibility that the market is going to reverse. Even when it does weaken, they stay focused on finding new buys, and that pays off quite well when the market quickly reverses to climb once again. When the market only goes one way, being a sophisticated investor who plays the market in both directions can be a handicap.
The best advice I can give is the same as what I've given for some time. Don't try to anticipate market weakness, but wait for some actual weakness to occur before you become more bearish. You'll end up taking some losses if stocks have a sudden reversal, but the likelihood is that you'll make enough profits in the near term to provide a big safe cushion.
As I keep emphasizing, the worst possible approach to this market would be constantly looking for it to top out. It should be pretty clear that logical arguments on this subject aren't working. This market really doesn't care what we think about the way it is acting. It is going to do what it pleases, and we'd just better be ready to react.
It all boils down to whether you want to anticipate or do you want to react. The advantage of anticipating is that maybe you will have good timing and escape at the exact moment the market turns. Unfortunately this market has been riddled with the carnage of bears who were positive a change in trend would occur at any moment.
In short, this market is like walking the high wire. It is hard not to be a little nervous and worried, but if you stop and worry for too long, you're likely to suffer some damage.
We're set to see a flat open and will have plenty of earnings to digest. Don't forget it's also the end of the month, and that tends to give us some positive seasonality.
No positions.
USA dollar on pärast SKT avaldamise esmast hüppelist reaktsiooni saamas tuge: EURUSD -0,3% ja kaupleb 1,3690 juures.
Usa indeksite futuurid on hetkel liikumas 0,05-0,25% rohelises. Nafta +0,55% @ 86,09 USD, kuld -0,42% @1312,7 USD, EUR/USD -0,25% @ 1,3698 USD.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,11%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,02%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,92%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,21%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,09%
Venemaa MICEX -0,71%
Poola WIG -0,27%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,13%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,68%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,13%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,89%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,22%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,65%
Tai Set 50 -0,65%
India Sensex 30 -1,54%
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,11%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,02%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,92%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,21%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,09%
Venemaa MICEX -0,71%
Poola WIG -0,27%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,13%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,68%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,13%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,89%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,22%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,65%
Tai Set 50 -0,65%
India Sensex 30 -1,54%
January University of Michigan Sentiment- final 74.2 vs 73.2 consensus; prelim 72.7