Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), üks maailma suurimaid pooljuhtide tootjaid avaldas öösel tulemused, mis tekitasid täna hommikul ostuhuvi kogu Euroopa pooljuhtide sektoris. Kolmanda kvartali kasum tõusis 5x, jõudes viimase 3 aasta kõrgeimale tasemele. Tasub märkimist, et Nvidia (NVDA) on TSM-i üks suurimaid kliente. Suuruselt järgmine on Altera (ALTR). Lisaks sellele võivad konkurendid CHTR ning UMC positiivselt reageerida.
- JP Morgan tõstab IT-konsultatsioone pakkuvad Accenture (ACN) oma Fookusnimekirja ning määrab hinnasihiks $29, mis jätab praeguselt hinnatasemelt 30% tõusuruumi.
- Barrons on täna hommikul kirjutanud neg. maiguga artikli Linear Tech (LLTC)-i teemal. Wireless pooljuhtide tootmisega tegeleva firma kaupleb 20x (ttm) käivet aktsia kohta samal ajal kui konkurendid ADI (ADI) ning Maxim (MXIM) kauplevad vastavalt 8x ning 13x käivet. Insaiderid on müünud ligemale 1 mln aktsiat sellel aastal keskmise hinnaga $34.5. Eelmisel aastal müüdi vaid 145 tuh. keskmise hinnaga $35. Analüütikud ei usu, et praegune valuatsioon on õigustatud. Lühikeseks on siiski müüdud vaid 3.1% kaubeldavatest aktsiatest.
- SoundView tõstab Gateway (GTW) reitingu Neutraalse pealt Outperform pealt. Analüütikute arvates on väike PC tootja hea võimalus mängida sesonaalselt tugeva viimase kvartali peale. Hinnasihiks $6, mis jätab praegustelt 30% tõusuruumi.
- China.com (CHINA) tuli välja oma tulemustega, mis ületasid turuosaliste ootusi. Kasumit tuli 6 sendi aktisa kohta ning käive kasvas 103% võrreldes eelmise aasta sama perioodiga $24.4 mln peale. Aktsiad on eelturul 7-8% plussis.
- Morgan Stanley langetab täna hommikul Ericssoni (ERICY, ERIC.B) reitingu Underperform peale varasema Equal-Weight pealt. Põhjuseks kahtlused edasise kasvu suhtes. ERICY on USA eelturul 1.6% plussis.
- Gary B. Smith
- Revshark:
The market always demands careful deliberation but there are times when it is prudent to be even more careful than usual. The nasty pullback last week and the strong bounce off support over the past couple of days has set up a particularly tricky environment for traders.
The indices are sitting in the middle of a very clear trading range. The highs of two weeks ago provide significant overheard resistance while the lows of Friday provide some degree of support. So which way do we go? Can we easily cut through the overhead resistance once again like we've done so often in recent months? Although the action yesterday was positive, it came on low volume and lacked the sort of intensity that indicates that there is sufficient momentum brewing to power us to new highs.
Time and again since March, technicians who have expressed doubts about the ability of the market to make a V-shaped move through overhead resistance have been just plain wrong. The market has consistently cut through resistance without forming bases or digesting gains to any great degree. Why should it be any different this time? Why shouldn't we expect this market to continue on its merry way and cut through that overhead like a knife through butter left on the counter all night?
The key thing that has changed in this market over the past week is the reality of earnings reports. Expectations where very high and even though we started strong there were some major disappointments. Couple that with the big gains that many investors have to protect and you have a much more cautious environment than what we saw back in August when we made a powerful V move off the lows.
We still have plenty of underinvested bulls, dip buyers and folks looking for an end-of-the-year rally to provide support but their aggressiveness is likely to be offset to a greater degree by the large number of folks with big profits to protect.
The market always boils down to psychology, which can shift very quickly. Technical resistance and support points typically represent areas where a psychological shift is likely to occur. When overhead resistance is breached the mood turns positive and investors scurry to join the crowd. When support levels are breached, fear takes hold and investors rush to move out of the way.
We need to stay attuned to those technical levels. I have some real concerns about the ability of the S&P 500 to move back over the 1040 level, but if we do it will be a sign to be more aggressively bullish. On the other hand a test of the lows Friday will be a major warning signal and require a very high level of caution.
While we wait for the market to clarify there are quite a few interesting individual stocks to trade. Watch for pockets of action that will offer up some good short-term opportunities.
To keep things tricky we have some important economic news on the agenda today. Durable goods numbers are out at 8:30 a.m. EST and then consumer confidence at 10 a.m. EST. But the big new will be the FOMC interest rate decision due at 2:15 p.m. EDT. No one expects a change in rates but the accompanying statement will be very carefully scrutinized for clues as to when the FOMC may raise rates.
Aaron Task posted a very good column last night that provides some insight into what investors are looking for in the FOMC statement.
We have a positive start to the day. Another merger, this time in the tobacco industry, is generating some attention. Overseas markets are acting well, earnings news is generally positive and analyst are fairly sanguine.
Futuurid: Naz 0.58% SP 0.38%
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