Mõned teemad tänaseks päevaks:
- Prantsuse päritolu Sanofi-Synthelabo (SNY) teatas pärast nädalaid kestnud spekulatsioone, et kavatseb üle võtta Aventise (AVE). Tehingu suuruseks 60 miljardit eurot, mis viiks Sanofi maailma 3. suurimaks ravimitootjaks GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ning Pfizeri (PFE) taga.
Ma häst ei usu, et see uudis võiks mingil moel USA tootjaid mõjutada.
- Schering-Plough (SGP) avaldas oma neljanda kvartali tulemused, mis jäid karvavõrra ootustele alla. Siiski kinnitas pressiteatas firma juht Fred Hassan, et firma tegelik potentsiaal hakkab väljenduma alles 2005. aastal. 2004. aasta tulemusi kommenteeriti vaid sedavõrd, et need peaksid tulema 2003. aasta omadest madalamad (jutt puhaskasumist). Aktsia on eelturul selle peale mõned protsendid miinuses.
- Merck (MRK), USA üks suurimaid farmaatsiafirmasid, saab üle pika aja Barronsi käest kiita. Firma aktsiad, mis viimase 10 aasta jooksul on kaubelnud keskmiselt 23x P/E juures, kauplevad hetkel allpool 15x piiri. Ühe fondijuhi arvamus, kes on MRK-i viimase paari nädala jooksul ostnud:
"Historically, over the last decade, when you've been able to buy a high-quality pharmaceutical company at a well-below-market multiple, you've been very well rewarded," says David Katz of Matrix Asset Advisors, who has been "enthusiastically" buying Merck in the past few weeks. "When the perception changes about Merck, it will be fairly rapid," he says. "By the time you realize it's happening, it will already be too late." That's because investors tend not to make moves until new drugs are well along in development -- and at that point they move as a herd.
- Lucent (LU) saab ka Barronsi käest kiita. 2002. aasta lõpu 58 sendi põhjast 5 dollari juurde tõusnud aktsiad ei pruugigi enam olla spekulatiivseks mänguks. Analüütikute sõnul suudab firma jällegi müüa telekommunikatsiooniseadmeid ning on avastanud ka USA riigihanked. Friedman, Billing, Ramsey analüütik, keda antud loo jaoks intervjueeriti arvab, et Lucenti aktsiaid tasub osta iga korrektsiooni pealt.
- Six Flags (PKS) püsib veel $8 piiri all. Usun, et varem või hiljem see tase murdub:
- Tenet Healthcare (THC) saab täna hommikul SunTrusti käest reitingualanduse Underweight peale varasema Equal Weight asemel. THC aktsiad on viimase 12 nädala jooksul 40% tõusnud ning analüütikud arvavad, et fundamentaalsetest edusammudest ette jooksnud.
- Banc of America alustab Research in Motioni (RIMM) katmist Osta reitingu ning $118 hinnasihiga. Tegemist on viimase aja ühe tõsisema short-squeeze aktsiaga.
- Gary B. Smith
- RevShark:
The biggest problem with the current market is that it has been remarkably problem-free for such a long time. On the surface that sounds like a good thing. The market just keeps rolling along without a worry in the world, so why shouldn't we simply expect that to continue and not be unduly concerned until there is something real to be worried about?
It is easy to forget that real and lasting strength comes from overcoming problems and difficulties. We need challenges in the form of pullbacks, poor news, doubt and skepticism to build character and strength. Weak holders and fair-weather friends need some fear of the bear to make things stronger over all. The longer the bulls go unchallenged the greater the danger they will collapse when faced with minor adversity.
It is only through struggle that we grow stronger. The bulls have had it too easy for too long and that should be a major concern for those of us looking for a healthy long-term bull market. Respect this buoyant market but don't be too trusting.
Last week we actually did see some minor signs of weakness. The Nasdaq and the DJIA were both down on the week for the first time in quite a while. The S&P 500 managed to keep its winning streak alive but its upward progress was slow.
Over all, the indices are still solidly in an uptrend but they remain extended. We need a rest but in his time-honored fashion of dishing out frustration, Mr. Market isn't giving the bulls any real weakness in which they can deploy capital and he continues his abuse of the poor bears, who haven't caught a break in ages.
The indices still have good momentum, especially the small-caps. The Russell 2000 was up nicely on Friday while the other indices were weak. There are still quite a few pockets of momentum to be found, as the solid breadth on Friday indicated.
The most troubling turn of events in the past week was the weakness in the semiconductors despite generally solid earnings. There have been some very sharp pullbacks and a number of stocks have some major technical problems. Prime examples are KLAC, LRCX, NVLX, MCHP, ASML, SNDK and OVTI.
We have another very busy week of earnings reports coming up but many of these are smaller secondary stocks. These stocks have been doing well and we are going to have to watch very carefully for signs that they may sell off on news, like the chip stocks have. Be particularly cautious with technology stocks that are up big going into earnings reports. A lot of good news is priced in and even a good report can be a catalyst for some selling.
The dollar continues to remain one of the most important drivers in this market. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this weekend, George Soros stated, "Since the decline of the dollar in the short term is beneficial for the U.S. economy, the authorities actually like it."
For the technical analysis fans out there, Soros makes the interesting observation that currency trends "tend to actually pick up speed." Soros sees the weak dollar as a boost for the U.S. market as it attracts foreign investors. When you view the major indices on a euro- or yen-dominated basis they don't look nearly as extended as they do on a dollar basis.
We are a little shaky in the early going, and there isn't much major news to deal right now. Earnings reports start to kick in after the close today. Overseas markets were mostly weak. Disappointment over the hostile bid with little premium by Sanofi (SNY:NYSE) for Aventis (AVE:NYSE) was the main source of pressure.
It looks like it is going to be a stock picker's market as the indices meander around and look for direction. It's been a great market for trading for a while now and that is likely to continue
Futuurid: Naz-0.33% SP-0.15%
I have missed more than 9,000 shots in my life. I have lost almost 300 games, 26 times I have been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I have failed over and over and over again. That is why I succeed...
--Michael Jordan
