Momentumile täienduseks:
June Durable Goods Orders, ex trans +2.0% vs -0.2% consensus, prior revised to -0.5% from -0.8%
June Durable Goods Orders +0.8% vs -0.3% consensus, prior revised to +0.1% from flat
Data peale liikusid futuurid ca 0.3%-0.4% ka kõrgemale.
Durable good +0,8% actual vs -0,3% ootus
Ex transport 2,0% vs -0,2%
Ex-defence 0,1% vs -0,3%
Non defence capital goods ex-aircraft 1,4 vs -0,5%
Kaks eventriski veel. Michigani sentiment (56,4) ja New Home Sales (0,5 mio). ECRI on väikese mõjuga.
Ex transport 2,0% vs -0,2%
Ex-defence 0,1% vs -0,3%
Non defence capital goods ex-aircraft 1,4 vs -0,5%
Kaks eventriski veel. Michigani sentiment (56,4) ja New Home Sales (0,5 mio). ECRI on väikese mõjuga.
Püüan TIF-i
Pool DAL müüdud @ 7.19, veerand $7.24 pealt, ülejäänuga passin natuke.
Nädala viimase kauplemispäeva eel panen siia väikse graafiku illustreerimaks viimase 108 aasta jooksul toimunud korrektsioone (Dow langeb enam kui 15%). Telgedel on siis korrektsiooni kestused ja languse ulatused.
Alates 1900. aastast on Dow teinud läbi 26 sellist korrektsiooni, mis tähendab siis suuremat langust keskmiselt iga 4,2 aasta tagant. Üle poolte korrektsioonidest (64%) on seejuures olnud väiksemad kui 40% ning kestnud vähem kui 400 päeva (alates 1950. aastast on selliste korrektsioonide osakaal suisa 84%). Praegune korrektsioon on keskmisest väldanud veel natuke vähem ning ka kukkumine jääb keskmisele alla.
Erki,
kas antud graafikul 'kestus' on tagantjärgi vaadatuna liikumise aeg tipust põhjani või liikumise aeg ühest tipust läbi põhja endise tipuni?
kas antud graafikul 'kestus' on tagantjärgi vaadatuna liikumise aeg tipust põhjani või liikumise aeg ühest tipust läbi põhja endise tipuni?
Finding a Way Out of the Desert
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/25/2008 8:25 AM EDT
The majority of men meet with failure because of their lack of persistence in creating new plans to take the place of those which fail.
--Napoleon Hill
Our recent bounce was a product of three things. First, market sentiment, as to banks, had gotten too negative, as fear that the IndyMac failure was an indication that other regional banks would go under.
Second, oil and commodity prices finally corrected and helped ease some inflationary fears.
Third, the market was technically oversold after falling almost straight down since mid-May.
The trigger for the bounce was a couple of good earnings reports from banks and some downside momentum in energy prices. That gave us a pretty dramatic move and, as is always the case, caused a number of folks to declare that the worst is over and the bottom is in.
That sounded pretty good until we failed miserably Thursday. Banks lost their momentum, and market players couldn't find anything positive that they wanted to embrace. Many were looking for some upside action in energy and commodity stocks, and we didn't even get relief there after a complete drubbing lately.
The problem for the market right now is that after the bounce in financials cooled, something else needs to step up and help the bullish cause. Banks and brokers simply don't have the capacity to lead us much higher after the tremendous oversold bounce they enjoyed already. They might not totally reverse and go back down, but there are still plenty of issues to keep them contained.
That means we have to look elsewhere for something to lead us to the promised land. Unfortunately, if you review charts of all the major sectors you are not going to find anything with a good technical setup. Biotechnology looks pretty good, but that has been driven to large degree by the heavy weighting of Genentech (DNA) in the sector.
A few other medical-related stocks hold some promise, as they are generally viewed as safe havens in a recessionary economy. Groups like semiconductors and retail look ready to break lower, which leaves us with little to embrace.
Traders are focusing on two primary themes right now: an oversold bounce in oil and commodity stocks and shorts of financials and other sectors that have had a recent rally. There simply are no good longer-term buys right now with the market in such precarious position.
I know I've made that comment quite a bit in recent months, but the message from the media and many pundits is just the opposite. This market is a long way from proving that the worst is over.
We have a slight bounce in the early going, but market players are likely very skittish after Thursday, and I'd be surprised if they can get much going to the upside. Overseas markets are down, oil is up and gold is down.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RVBD +15.5% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), NUVA +9.6%, DAIO +9.5%, NSIT +8.6%, UCBH +8.4%, VISN +6.9%, AXL +6.2% (light volume), MSCC +5.9%, PLXS +4.3%, ANGO +3.6%, IFX +3.6%, BKHM +3.5%, PWER +2.9%, MCHP +2.8%, CSS +2.5% (light volume), NTCT +2.4%, SONO +2.1%, BUCY +2.1%, WSFS +2.1% (light volume), IWOV +1.9% (light volume), LNCE +1.7%, FTI +1.5%, HITT +1.4% (light volume), ACI +1.1%... M&A news: CCU +1.0% (shareholders approve merger with Private Equity Group Co-Led by Bain Capital Partners and Thomas H. Lee Partners)... Select European oil/gas names trading higher following strength overseas: BP +2.9%, TOT +2.2%, RDS.A +1.9%, E +1.8%... Other news: IFC +12.1% (announces major strategic restructuring to refocus on small business and local community banking), MSO +10.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RS +7.1% (elects not to proceed with its proposed common stock offering), MTL +6.3% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 25%+ decline), HUN +5.5% (discloses that it has sent letter to Craig Morrison of Hexion and Joshua Harris of Apollo requesting Hexion's consent to share Hexion confidential information with potential investors), BCS +4.9% (still checking), DVA +4.1% (will replace Clear Channel in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on July 30), PCX +3.0% (declares 2 for 1 stock split), NOK +2.8% and AZN +1.5% (still checking for anything specific), ANSS +1.4% (will replace TQNT in the S&P MidCap 400)... Analyst comments: DAL +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), CSIQ +4.2% (Hearing upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), VDSI +4.5% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital), SWN +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings), ECA +1.7% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James), GOOG +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), NE +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), BSX +1.0% (initiated with Buy at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CROX -43.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird), AFFX -32.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), CPHD -26.4% (also downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at RBC), ABAX -17.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Suntrust), SIRF -17.1%, IBKR -13.2%, POWI -11.6%, COLM -10.8%, WDC -10.8% (also downgraded to Buy at Needham), VLCM -9.3%, EPIC -8.8% (also downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc), VSEA -7.4%, CVCO -6.3%, ACTG -5.6%, BMC -3.9%, ESIO -3.3%, CLS -2.8%, RMBS -2.7%, LSCC -2.5%, CYMI -2.5%, DDUP -1.1%... Select European financial names showing weakness: AXA -4.1% , ING -2.7% , UBS -2.2%... Other news: ES -5.8% (to sell 35 mln shares in secondary offering at $19 per share - DJ), ANF -5.2% (discloses Michael Kramer, Executive Vice President and CFO intends to resign; also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA and downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel)... Analyst comments: NLS -13.6% (downgraded to Sell at Merriman), TIF -3.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at BofA), GKK -3.0% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SIRI -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph), TASR -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/25/2008 8:25 AM EDT
The majority of men meet with failure because of their lack of persistence in creating new plans to take the place of those which fail.
--Napoleon Hill
Our recent bounce was a product of three things. First, market sentiment, as to banks, had gotten too negative, as fear that the IndyMac failure was an indication that other regional banks would go under.
Second, oil and commodity prices finally corrected and helped ease some inflationary fears.
Third, the market was technically oversold after falling almost straight down since mid-May.
The trigger for the bounce was a couple of good earnings reports from banks and some downside momentum in energy prices. That gave us a pretty dramatic move and, as is always the case, caused a number of folks to declare that the worst is over and the bottom is in.
That sounded pretty good until we failed miserably Thursday. Banks lost their momentum, and market players couldn't find anything positive that they wanted to embrace. Many were looking for some upside action in energy and commodity stocks, and we didn't even get relief there after a complete drubbing lately.
The problem for the market right now is that after the bounce in financials cooled, something else needs to step up and help the bullish cause. Banks and brokers simply don't have the capacity to lead us much higher after the tremendous oversold bounce they enjoyed already. They might not totally reverse and go back down, but there are still plenty of issues to keep them contained.
That means we have to look elsewhere for something to lead us to the promised land. Unfortunately, if you review charts of all the major sectors you are not going to find anything with a good technical setup. Biotechnology looks pretty good, but that has been driven to large degree by the heavy weighting of Genentech (DNA) in the sector.
A few other medical-related stocks hold some promise, as they are generally viewed as safe havens in a recessionary economy. Groups like semiconductors and retail look ready to break lower, which leaves us with little to embrace.
Traders are focusing on two primary themes right now: an oversold bounce in oil and commodity stocks and shorts of financials and other sectors that have had a recent rally. There simply are no good longer-term buys right now with the market in such precarious position.
I know I've made that comment quite a bit in recent months, but the message from the media and many pundits is just the opposite. This market is a long way from proving that the worst is over.
We have a slight bounce in the early going, but market players are likely very skittish after Thursday, and I'd be surprised if they can get much going to the upside. Overseas markets are down, oil is up and gold is down.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RVBD +15.5% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird), NUVA +9.6%, DAIO +9.5%, NSIT +8.6%, UCBH +8.4%, VISN +6.9%, AXL +6.2% (light volume), MSCC +5.9%, PLXS +4.3%, ANGO +3.6%, IFX +3.6%, BKHM +3.5%, PWER +2.9%, MCHP +2.8%, CSS +2.5% (light volume), NTCT +2.4%, SONO +2.1%, BUCY +2.1%, WSFS +2.1% (light volume), IWOV +1.9% (light volume), LNCE +1.7%, FTI +1.5%, HITT +1.4% (light volume), ACI +1.1%... M&A news: CCU +1.0% (shareholders approve merger with Private Equity Group Co-Led by Bain Capital Partners and Thomas H. Lee Partners)... Select European oil/gas names trading higher following strength overseas: BP +2.9%, TOT +2.2%, RDS.A +1.9%, E +1.8%... Other news: IFC +12.1% (announces major strategic restructuring to refocus on small business and local community banking), MSO +10.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RS +7.1% (elects not to proceed with its proposed common stock offering), MTL +6.3% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 25%+ decline), HUN +5.5% (discloses that it has sent letter to Craig Morrison of Hexion and Joshua Harris of Apollo requesting Hexion's consent to share Hexion confidential information with potential investors), BCS +4.9% (still checking), DVA +4.1% (will replace Clear Channel in the S&P 500 after the close of trading on July 30), PCX +3.0% (declares 2 for 1 stock split), NOK +2.8% and AZN +1.5% (still checking for anything specific), ANSS +1.4% (will replace TQNT in the S&P MidCap 400)... Analyst comments: DAL +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), CSIQ +4.2% (Hearing upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), VDSI +4.5% (upgraded to Buy at Lazard Capital), SWN +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings), ECA +1.7% (upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James), GOOG +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), NE +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), BSX +1.0% (initiated with Buy at Piper).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CROX -43.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at Baird), AFFX -32.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), CPHD -26.4% (also downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at RBC), ABAX -17.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Suntrust), SIRF -17.1%, IBKR -13.2%, POWI -11.6%, COLM -10.8%, WDC -10.8% (also downgraded to Buy at Needham), VLCM -9.3%, EPIC -8.8% (also downgraded to Hold at KeyBanc), VSEA -7.4%, CVCO -6.3%, ACTG -5.6%, BMC -3.9%, ESIO -3.3%, CLS -2.8%, RMBS -2.7%, LSCC -2.5%, CYMI -2.5%, DDUP -1.1%... Select European financial names showing weakness: AXA -4.1% , ING -2.7% , UBS -2.2%... Other news: ES -5.8% (to sell 35 mln shares in secondary offering at $19 per share - DJ), ANF -5.2% (discloses Michael Kramer, Executive Vice President and CFO intends to resign; also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA and downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel)... Analyst comments: NLS -13.6% (downgraded to Sell at Merriman), TIF -3.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at BofA), GKK -3.0% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SIRI -1.7% (downgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph), TASR -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman).
endise tipuni tavaliselt läheb aastaid mitte päevi
Flat DAL @ $7.34. Nafta kukkumine aitas kaasa, muidu poleks nii suurt liikumist saanud.
Joel
Kestus on siin graafikul tipust põhjani.
Kestus on siin graafikul tipust põhjani.
USA turud on päeva küll pisut plussis alustamas, kuid Aasia ja Euroopa olid USA eilse verelaskmise järel ikka võrdlemisi punased.
Saksamaa DAX -0.67%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.29%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.41%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.10%
Venemaa MICEX -4.68%
Poola WIG +0.06%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.97%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.50%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.56%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.89%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.62%
Tai Set 50 -1.04%
India Sensex -3.40%
Erki, mis kuupäeva seisuga see graafik on ehk milline on viimane kasutatud datapoint?
Selge, tänud Erki.
Muidugi kui seda Erki graafikut pisut lähemalt vaadata, siis sellest ‘average’ valgest sõõrikesest enamus paremale poole jäävaid täpikesi ehk pikemad langusperioodid on millegipärast pea kõik kaugest-kaugest minevikust: 1937, 1909, 1929, 1946, 1901, 1919 jne. Neil aegadel tehti tehinguid veel kriidiga tahvli peal :)
Usun, et mida rohkem aeg edasi läheb ja mida rohkem väärtpaberikontosid üle maailma avatakse, seda lühemaks muutuvad languse ja tõusutsükli vahetumise perioodid ehk seda efektiivsemaks muutuvad turud. Täna pole enam –15%lised liikumised ühe kuu sees enam ime, millega üritatakse sisse diskonteerida nt oodatust pikemat nõrka majanduskasvu vms. Ehk info liigub kiiremini.
Usun, et mida rohkem aeg edasi läheb ja mida rohkem väärtpaberikontosid üle maailma avatakse, seda lühemaks muutuvad languse ja tõusutsükli vahetumise perioodid ehk seda efektiivsemaks muutuvad turud. Täna pole enam –15%lised liikumised ühe kuu sees enam ime, millega üritatakse sisse diskonteerida nt oodatust pikemat nõrka majanduskasvu vms. Ehk info liigub kiiremini.
momentum ... 1 ohutegur maas :)
University of Michigan Sentiment-revised 61.2 vs 56.4 consensus
New home sales oodatust parem. 530 000 - päris ilus number.
Ostsin MVO @ $18.5..$19. See on kukkunud SEC filingu peale, et SGLP & co on keeldunud maksmast. Minu meelest ajuvaba reaktsioon. Õhuke käkk, nii et ohtlik seetõttu.
naftahind teeb ka uusi põhju, päris palju positiivset datat korraga
Henno,
ma arvan, et tegemist eilse graafikuga, aga pead ei anna.
ma arvan, et tegemist eilse graafikuga, aga pead ei anna.