CFC tuli tulemustega, mis jäid analüütikute ootustele alla. Peamiseks põhjuseks taas langevad elamuhinnad, mis põhjustavad laenude defaulte. Huvitav on märkida, et seekord ei räägitud ainult subprime laenudest vaid probleemid on levinud juba ka teistesse hüpoteeklaenude kategooriatesse. Lisaks kardetakse, et 2007. aasta teine pool saab olema väga keeruline. Firma teatas, et krediidikulud on peamiselt suurenenud kvartali jooksul "prime" home equity laenude investeeringutelt, mitte enam "subprime."
Viimane on päris suur üllatus ning negatiivseid mõjusid teistele pankadele võib samuti näha, aktsia kaupleb eelturul üle 7% madalamal. Lisaks kindlustajad RDN, PMI jne võivad pihta saada.
CFC: biggest loss in qtr came from "prime" equity loans
oliver, hästi välja toodud AAPli point -- 12 points ...mis hinnalt short oled?
teistele -- märksa huvitavam ja parem lähenemine kui TA ju
teistele -- märksa huvitavam ja parem lähenemine kui TA ju
CFC insiderid on juba päris pikka aega aktsiaid müünud. Siia kõrvale on huvitav vaadata Citigroupi tänast Wachovia Corp (WB) upgradei, mis teatab, et nende arvates on ettevõtte krediidirisk väiksem kui teistel pankadel. Hetkel tundub, et CFC kommentaarid võivad Citi calli summutada...
abesiki, around 1st prints üle 142.5
Täna eelturul BTU tulemuste peale tugevalt alla kauplemas. Ma ei ole lähedalt uurinud tulemusi, kuid BTU tegutseb peamiselt PRB regioonis (61% aastal 2006 tootmisest), samuti ACI (68% tootmisest), mis ele tulemustega tuli ning üles osteti. BTU guidance on muidugi ugly..
Täna eelturul BTU tulemuste peale tugevalt alla kauplemas. Ma ei ole lähedalt uurinud tulemusi, kuid BTU tegutseb peamiselt PRB regioonis (61% aastal 2006 tootmisest), samuti ACI (68% tootmisest), mis ele tulemustega tuli ning üles osteti. BTU guidance on muidugi ugly..
Apple (AAPL) lubatud -4% sai siis nüüd täis
Päris karmilt kukub tõesti.
Peabody tänast kasumiaruannet natukene puurides jääb silma, et aastalõpu EBITDA prognoose vähendatakse tervelt $150 miljoni võrra seoses valuutaefekti ning vähendatud müügiga Austraalia vahepealsete sadamate piirangute tõttu. See on peaaegu 10% aastasest EBITDAst Põhimõtteliselt võib seda ka ühekordse mõjurina vaadata.
Tööstusharus on nõudlus ja pakkumine hetkel veel natukene tasakaalust ära, kuid BTU, ACI jt tootmise vähendamiste läbi võib oodata selle üpriski kiiresti tasakaalu tasemele tagasi jõudmist. Taaskord kinnitati tugevat nõudlust Hiina ja India turgudelt ning et Indoneesia söe eksportijana on vihmaste ilmade tõttu viimasel ajal pakkumist regioonis oluliselt vähendanud. Samuti on Venemaa sisenõudluse kasvu tingimustes vähendamas oma ekspordimahte.
BTU avatus ka söenõudluse turgudele ka väljaspool USA-d tõstab ettevõte teistest paremini esile.
Tööstusharus on nõudlus ja pakkumine hetkel veel natukene tasakaalust ära, kuid BTU, ACI jt tootmise vähendamiste läbi võib oodata selle üpriski kiiresti tasakaalu tasemele tagasi jõudmist. Taaskord kinnitati tugevat nõudlust Hiina ja India turgudelt ning et Indoneesia söe eksportijana on vihmaste ilmade tõttu viimasel ajal pakkumist regioonis oluliselt vähendanud. Samuti on Venemaa sisenõudluse kasvu tingimustes vähendamas oma ekspordimahte.
BTU avatus ka söenõudluse turgudele ka väljaspool USA-d tõstab ettevõte teistest paremini esile.
A Market Shift Starts With Small Moves
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/24/2007 8:14 AM EDT
What concerns me is not the way things are, but rather the way people think things are.
-- Epictetus
As earnings reports continue to roll in, the atmosphere has a growing undercurrent of concern. Reports aren't bad, but the reaction to them has not been very positive. This morning, for example, both Texas Instruments (TXN) and American Express (AXP) are trading down, although both reported in line with expectations.
What is so tricky about the market at times is that what ultimately causes a change in the trend isn't the facts, but rather the way those facts are viewed. Earnings season isn't really going to change anything as far as the big picture goes. We still have all the same positives and negatives in place. We still have strong international growth, subprime worries, weak housing and the Fed on the sidelines.
The thing that we need to focus on is how perception and mood and attitude and thinking change as events unfold. The biggest mistake we can make is to believe that as long as economic conditions remain essentially the same that market direction cannot change.
That is what ultimately traps most investors when the market starts to turn. They continue to believe that since there has been no dramatic turn in events that the market has to continue to trend in the same direction. If nothing has changed, then we should just stay the course, right?
Keep in mind that the bears are not necessarily wrong about all those negatives that are supposed to be lurking out there. They may be right, but the market simply hasn't cared. That doesn't mean the market will never care. Investors may suddenly decide to embrace the bearish case even though there is no major news or events to trigger a shift.
I bring this up this morning because it feels like there is a little gloom in the air. Earnings reports aren't bad, but the market is sure not reacting to them the way the did last quarter. The action yesterday, while positive if you focused on the DJIA, was quite mixed under the surface with some poor action in a number of quarters.
I don't want to get unduly negative here, since the indices are still in good shape technically, but the mood of the market seems to be subtly shifting, and I want to make sure we stay very attuned to that as we navigate earnings reports.
We have a negative start to the day as earnings reports are unappreciated. Europe was weak overnight on soft commodity pricing, so keep an eye on miners. Oil is down, gold is up.
---------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: JDAS +13.6%, CPO +6.3%, DGX +6.1%... M&A: RPB +24.1% (RPB being acquired by Liberty Property Trust for $14.70/share)... Other news: MVIS +17.7% (signs agreement with Motorola to develop pico projector display for mobile applications), GGBM +10.3% (continued momentum following yesterday's 75%+ move higher), NRMX +10.0% (granted fast track designation from FDA for tramiprosate), FONR +9.0 (says radiologist buys 11th and 12th Fonar upright MRI and agrees to purchase four more), AMSC +8.0% (receives new $70 mln order from China's Sinovel Wind), OCNF +5.7% (positive Cramer mention).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: CTHR -13.5%, UIS -10.9%, MICC -12.0%, EDU -7.9%, RVSN -7.3%, CFC -7.5%, ATHR -6.4%, WGOV -5.8%, WYE -5.3%, NFLX -4.8%, BOW -4.2%, TXN -4.1%, BTU -3.9%, CRDN -3.5%... Other news: SNCR -5.6% (there have been multiple broker comments this morning discussing softer iPhone demand; T's earnings release gave an indication of actual iPhone activations), BZH -5.1% (co discloses that SEC probe turns formal), AAPL -4.5% (multiple broker comments this morning discussing softer iPhone demand, T's earnings release gave an indication of actual iPhone activations).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/24/2007 8:14 AM EDT
What concerns me is not the way things are, but rather the way people think things are.
-- Epictetus
As earnings reports continue to roll in, the atmosphere has a growing undercurrent of concern. Reports aren't bad, but the reaction to them has not been very positive. This morning, for example, both Texas Instruments (TXN) and American Express (AXP) are trading down, although both reported in line with expectations.
What is so tricky about the market at times is that what ultimately causes a change in the trend isn't the facts, but rather the way those facts are viewed. Earnings season isn't really going to change anything as far as the big picture goes. We still have all the same positives and negatives in place. We still have strong international growth, subprime worries, weak housing and the Fed on the sidelines.
The thing that we need to focus on is how perception and mood and attitude and thinking change as events unfold. The biggest mistake we can make is to believe that as long as economic conditions remain essentially the same that market direction cannot change.
That is what ultimately traps most investors when the market starts to turn. They continue to believe that since there has been no dramatic turn in events that the market has to continue to trend in the same direction. If nothing has changed, then we should just stay the course, right?
Keep in mind that the bears are not necessarily wrong about all those negatives that are supposed to be lurking out there. They may be right, but the market simply hasn't cared. That doesn't mean the market will never care. Investors may suddenly decide to embrace the bearish case even though there is no major news or events to trigger a shift.
I bring this up this morning because it feels like there is a little gloom in the air. Earnings reports aren't bad, but the market is sure not reacting to them the way the did last quarter. The action yesterday, while positive if you focused on the DJIA, was quite mixed under the surface with some poor action in a number of quarters.
I don't want to get unduly negative here, since the indices are still in good shape technically, but the mood of the market seems to be subtly shifting, and I want to make sure we stay very attuned to that as we navigate earnings reports.
We have a negative start to the day as earnings reports are unappreciated. Europe was weak overnight on soft commodity pricing, so keep an eye on miners. Oil is down, gold is up.
---------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: JDAS +13.6%, CPO +6.3%, DGX +6.1%... M&A: RPB +24.1% (RPB being acquired by Liberty Property Trust for $14.70/share)... Other news: MVIS +17.7% (signs agreement with Motorola to develop pico projector display for mobile applications), GGBM +10.3% (continued momentum following yesterday's 75%+ move higher), NRMX +10.0% (granted fast track designation from FDA for tramiprosate), FONR +9.0 (says radiologist buys 11th and 12th Fonar upright MRI and agrees to purchase four more), AMSC +8.0% (receives new $70 mln order from China's Sinovel Wind), OCNF +5.7% (positive Cramer mention).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: CTHR -13.5%, UIS -10.9%, MICC -12.0%, EDU -7.9%, RVSN -7.3%, CFC -7.5%, ATHR -6.4%, WGOV -5.8%, WYE -5.3%, NFLX -4.8%, BOW -4.2%, TXN -4.1%, BTU -3.9%, CRDN -3.5%... Other news: SNCR -5.6% (there have been multiple broker comments this morning discussing softer iPhone demand; T's earnings release gave an indication of actual iPhone activations), BZH -5.1% (co discloses that SEC probe turns formal), AAPL -4.5% (multiple broker comments this morning discussing softer iPhone demand, T's earnings release gave an indication of actual iPhone activations).
selle tulemuste tabeli võiks äkki panna lingitavaks esilehelt kui seda pikemalt pidama hakatakse
yanek, mõtleme sellele. Siis peaks link ilmselt ilmuma vaid tulemuste hooajal, kuid peaksin juurdlema natuke kuidas ja kuhu seda paigutada.. Kui väga head kohta ei leia, siis jääb ilmselt nii ikka, et foorumist suuname. Väga kirjuks ei taha esilehte ka igasugu linkidega ajada, kuid vaatame.
Countrywide (CFC) kommentaarid mõjuvad turule väga kehvasti. Lisaks krediidistandardite kitsenemisele nii prime kui subprime laenude puhul ütleb ettevõte välja järgmise kommentaari: seeing home price depreciation at levels not seen since the Great Depression..
Says that a small % of lost homes are due to payment shock; says 60% is due to some sort of loss of income; 25% attributable to death or divorce; says a significant amount is explained by investors unable to get out of the property
Ettevõtte kommentaarid töötusemäära osas ei tundu ka olevat kuigi julgustavad: co says so far what they have seen in deliquencies is due to people losing job, losing health, lost marriage
Says that a small % of lost homes are due to payment shock; says 60% is due to some sort of loss of income; 25% attributable to death or divorce; says a significant amount is explained by investors unable to get out of the property
Ettevõtte kommentaarid töötusemäära osas ei tundu ka olevat kuigi julgustavad: co says so far what they have seen in deliquencies is due to people losing job, losing health, lost marriage
Cramer teeb showd CNBCs... ütleb, et CFC kvartal oli kvartal põrgust ning tema ostaks pute igale homebuilderile, kuna mõni neist võib minna pankrotti. Ilmselt on see ka võimalik, kui vaadata, kui palju PHM hiljuti maha pidi kirjutama oma varadest, kuid ilmselt oleks pidanud seda ära tabama juba ammu...
NYSEl rakendati kauplemispiiranguid. NYSE saab kauplemispiiranguid programmkauplemisele seada kui NYSE Composite Index liigub 150 punkti või rohkem võrreldes eelmise päeva sulgumisega
. Piirangud jäävad paika kuni päeva lõpuni või kuni liikumine on kahanenud 70le või vähemale punktile.
Antud piirangud lubavad programmidel müüa vaid uptickidel ja osta vaid downtickidel...
. Piirangud jäävad paika kuni päeva lõpuni või kuni liikumine on kahanenud 70le või vähemale punktile.
Antud piirangud lubavad programmidel müüa vaid uptickidel ja osta vaid downtickidel...
ma vaataks asja sealt, et 12 kuud täpselt tõusu, kaua võib, nüüd on enamus tulemusi käes ja kuhu nüüd? mulle tundub, et aint alla, aga ootame nädala lõpuni, aga järgmine aint alla. ka parimatel pulli turgudel, pole nii pikka pidu olnud(ehk vaidleb keegi vastu?), kui tõus on olnud juuli lõpuni, siis siit on mindud alla, vaielge vastu ja nüidake periood, ma ise ei leidnud viimase 10 aasta jooksul!
Huvitav mõne päevaga kukkus pullide osakaal 51%ni
rakuc, vihjad investor intelligence statistikale? Ma küll ei tea täpselt, kuidas seda arvutatakse või koostatakse, aga arvan, et selle statistika täpsuses (või pigem olulisuses) võib kahelda. Otsuste tegemisel see ilmselt väga palju kaasa ei aita.
p/c ratio oli 1,2-1,4 kandis, ehk ka miskit hullu ei paista veel!
AA Investors Intelligence numbrid arvutatakse nii, et küsitletakse 150 (oli vist?) newsletteri kirjutatajat ja selgitatakse nende meelsus välja. Eks ta mingi pildi annab, aga ma ka liiga suurt rõhku nendele numbritele ei paneks.
thanks, kristjan. See muidugi paneb asja kohe teise perspektiivi - valim tundub suhteliselt väike. Fondirahast ja nende kohta, kes tõsisemalt liigutavad turgu, see ilmselt päris adekvaatset pilti ei anna. Suurema pildi emotsioonidest annab ehk järgmine graafik:
Just, pigem olen ma aru saanud, et need sellised väiksed sõltumatud newsletterite tüübid. Pigem tasuks tõesti vaadata fondide rahavoolu (fund inflows/outflows) ja seda kuidas need suuremad spekulandid käituvad, mis Oliver graafikul tõi.