Statistikute rõõmuks tähistas eilne päev mitme rekordi purustamist, seega on, mida mäletada:
Dow Jonesi indeks liikus neljandat päeva järjest vähemalt 350 punkti, seda ei ole varem juhtunud.
Naftabarreli hind tõusis $16.37 võrra $120.92-ni, mis on ajaloo suurim tõus (pigem tehnilist laadi).
Dollar kukkus euro vastu 2.5%, mis on dollari suurim protsentuaalne langus euro loomisest alates.
Huvitavad ajad.
1) Futuurikauplejad kas suplevad rahas või enam ei kauple.
2) Nafta+dollar - mängime veel üks kord inflatsioonilist keskkonda (mis siis, et kinnisvara- ja krediidikriis on olemuselt deflatsioonilised)
3) EUR/USD - mnjaa - eksisteerib siiski mingi vahe, kas bailout'i tehakse raha trükkimise või täiendava võla teel.
2) Nafta+dollar - mängime veel üks kord inflatsioonilist keskkonda (mis siis, et kinnisvara- ja krediidikriis on olemuselt deflatsioonilised)
3) EUR/USD - mnjaa - eksisteerib siiski mingi vahe, kas bailout'i tehakse raha trükkimise või täiendava võla teel.
1) Rahas suplevad vist vähesed, turg on üsna prognoosimatu.
2) Kuigi kriis ise on deflatsiooniline, siis $700B on päris suur summa. :)
Karum6mm, mis sa viimase kohta arvad? Usun, et kangesti tahetakse trükkimise teed minna, aga ilma võlakoorma kasvuta ei petaks vist kedagi ära... Samas see sinu poolt viidatud vahe väga suur ei ole (kahest halvast üks on natuke parem lihtsalt).
2) Kuigi kriis ise on deflatsiooniline, siis $700B on päris suur summa. :)
Karum6mm, mis sa viimase kohta arvad? Usun, et kangesti tahetakse trükkimise teed minna, aga ilma võlakoorma kasvuta ei petaks vist kedagi ära... Samas see sinu poolt viidatud vahe väga suur ei ole (kahest halvast üks on natuke parem lihtsalt).
Üks põhjusi miks commodity on nii alla pekstud: probleemid finantsis sunnivad kasumlikke positsioone mujal sulgema. New Wall Street model may curb commodity flows
momentum minuarust tooraine naca ylehinnatud ka ju.
Esialgsete kuulduste järgi EL riigid pankadel pead silitama ei hakka ja USA-sarnaseid päästeoperatsioone ei korralda. See peaks siis USD kurssi euro suhtes veelgi nõrgemaks muutma ja peaksime nägema ka kõrgemat nafta hinda.
Oskab keegi öelda, milline on EUR/USD piir, kus EL riigid tõsiselt oma ekspordi pärast muret tundma hakkavad? Kus on taluvuspiir?
ECB prioriteet number üks on hindade stabiilsus. Po**** see eksport. Meie tarbime ise!
Morgan Stanley natuke contrarian view EUR-USD osas vastukaaluks paljude väidetele, et USD nõrgeneb bail-outi peale:
USD OUTLOOK: NATIONALIZATION DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN A WEAKER CURRENCY - STEPHEN JEN AT MORGAN STANLEY
- "Conventional wisdom has it that, as a government fiscalises the contingent liabilities of nationalised banks, the currency of the country in question should depreciate. More generally, banking crises are, very often, accompanied by balance of payments (or currency) crises. The US, being a country with still out-sized ‘twin deficits’ (fiscal and external deficits), will likely see the dollar weaken because of the Treasury and the Fed’s decision to effectively nationalise some of the large financial institutions, so the argument goes. An inconvenient fact, however, is that nationalisation of banks, historically, did not tend to lead to further currency weakness. In fact, very often the financial sector and the currency in question reach a trough just as the government takes steps to address the banking crisis. Thus, currency weakness tends to precede, not follow nationalisation."
- "The historical pattern suggests that financial markets tend to be forward-looking and try to price in the deterioration in the state of the banking system by selling down the currency and financial sector stocks, but the government is usually not compelled to act until conditions deteriorate significantly. As a result, more often than not, government interventions have coincided with the lows in currency values. In other words, even though K&R’s observation that currency crises often occur simultaneously with banking crises is correct, there is no strong proof that nationalisation leads to further currency weakness."
- "In sum, banking crises are unambiguously bad for currencies, but nationalisation per se does not make the situation worse for currencies. In fact, it often marks the low in the currencies."
- "Investors will likely see it as key for the next Administration to control spending. However, it is also important for investors to appreciate how sensitive US revenue collection is to GDP. During 2001-02, for example, as the US economy fell into a brief recession, revenue collection plummeted from 21% of GDP to close to 16%. Thus, the strength of the US economic recovery in the coming years will have important implications for the overall budget position. These fundamental trends in revenue collection and ‘core’ spending are at least as important as the costs associated with nationalisation. The performance of the dollar in the coming years will, therefore, be a function of how the US government deals with spending and how rapidly the US economy recovers, in our view."
USD OUTLOOK: NATIONALIZATION DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN A WEAKER CURRENCY - STEPHEN JEN AT MORGAN STANLEY
- "Conventional wisdom has it that, as a government fiscalises the contingent liabilities of nationalised banks, the currency of the country in question should depreciate. More generally, banking crises are, very often, accompanied by balance of payments (or currency) crises. The US, being a country with still out-sized ‘twin deficits’ (fiscal and external deficits), will likely see the dollar weaken because of the Treasury and the Fed’s decision to effectively nationalise some of the large financial institutions, so the argument goes. An inconvenient fact, however, is that nationalisation of banks, historically, did not tend to lead to further currency weakness. In fact, very often the financial sector and the currency in question reach a trough just as the government takes steps to address the banking crisis. Thus, currency weakness tends to precede, not follow nationalisation."
- "The historical pattern suggests that financial markets tend to be forward-looking and try to price in the deterioration in the state of the banking system by selling down the currency and financial sector stocks, but the government is usually not compelled to act until conditions deteriorate significantly. As a result, more often than not, government interventions have coincided with the lows in currency values. In other words, even though K&R’s observation that currency crises often occur simultaneously with banking crises is correct, there is no strong proof that nationalisation leads to further currency weakness."
- "In sum, banking crises are unambiguously bad for currencies, but nationalisation per se does not make the situation worse for currencies. In fact, it often marks the low in the currencies."
- "Investors will likely see it as key for the next Administration to control spending. However, it is also important for investors to appreciate how sensitive US revenue collection is to GDP. During 2001-02, for example, as the US economy fell into a brief recession, revenue collection plummeted from 21% of GDP to close to 16%. Thus, the strength of the US economic recovery in the coming years will have important implications for the overall budget position. These fundamental trends in revenue collection and ‘core’ spending are at least as important as the costs associated with nationalisation. The performance of the dollar in the coming years will, therefore, be a function of how the US government deals with spending and how rapidly the US economy recovers, in our view."
Rehatrader, see hetk on juba üldiselt käes. 1,6000 peal olid ministrid juba üsna häälekad. Aga nagu TaivoS juba ütles: ECB on monomandaadiga asutus ja selleks ainsaks mandaadiks on hinnastabiilsuse tagamine. Ekspordi või GDP kasvu boostimine enne CPI tampimist on no-go!
WSJ reports the SEC said shortly after midnight Monday that it would revise rules to curb short selling that it had issued just three days before. The SEC's latest change of direction on short selling caught some market participants off guard and prompted criticism that the agency has miscalculated the impact of its rulemaking. The SEC, in a release issued at 12:26 a.m. EST Monday, reversed a position it had taken Friday when it said that market makers couldn't short financial stocks after Friday. The new rules as of Monday: Those engaged in bona fide market making and hedging activity, including in derivative contracts, could continue to short. "The purpose of this accommodation is to permit market makers to continue to provide liquidity to the markets," the SEC explained in the revised order. To try to prevent short sellers from using market makers to take big positions, the SEC said market makers couldn't short for a customer if it would give them a net short position in the security.
Ülaltoodud lõigu kohta veel niipalju, et see päästab ära turu tegijad (market makers) ja aitab ehk kaasa ka SKF ja UYG taas normaalsemale käitumisele aja jooksul.
Küsimus/loogika: Kui on keelatud finatsasutuste put optsioonid (ära hoidmaks liigset spekuleerimist ?), siis ei saa ju aktsiaomanikud enam languse vastu ennast kindlustada ja peaks toimuma laus müük, et riske maandada ? Sest kes tahab omada aktsiaid kui languse vastu ei saa kindlustada ja tulevik on tume.
On see nii ??
On see nii ??
Mezaks,
mu eelmine postitus peaks ka sinu küsimusele vastama. Kuna turutegijate poolt lühikeseks müük lubatud, siis on võimalik ka optsiooniturgu teha.
mu eelmine postitus peaks ka sinu küsimusele vastama. Kuna turutegijate poolt lühikeseks müük lubatud, siis on võimalik ka optsiooniturgu teha.
Wait for Despair
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/23/2008 7:50 AM EDT
One day I sat thinking, almost in despair; a hand fell on my shoulder and a voice said reassuringly, "Cheer up, things could get worse." So I cheered up and, sure enough, things got worse.
-- James Hagerty
The market mood is growing increasingly grim as politicians argue over socializing hundreds of billions in banking losses, and crude oil and the dollar trade in chaotic fashion. The big reversal on Monday went a long way in undermining the brief bout of confidence that result from the euphoria over a bailout and forced short squeeze we had on Thursday and Friday. Market players are quickly coming to the realization that we have some huge problems out there that are not going to be quickly solved.
The big problem with this giant bailout is that rather than boost confidence, it scared many investors who really had no idea that things were in such poor shape. The market has been flopping around like a fish out of water all year and the issues in the banking sector were out there, but until they heard the word "trillion," many didn't realize how deep the problems were.
Unfortunately the market has not done a very good job of fully discounted the extent of the losses, and in fact still doesn't seem to have a very good idea of how bad they are. The good news is that at least we are now engaged in the process of recognizing the losses and adjusting expectations. It might take a while for the process to play out, but at least we are no longer burying our heads in the sand and ignoring the issues that have been out there for an awfully long time.
And now what? As I've said many times, bad markets tend to wear you out rather than scare you out. The bottom will be found amid gloom and despair rather than fear and hysteria. It is when market players start to believe they can never make money again and want nothing to do with stocks that we will slowly begin to turn the corner.
We certainly have made progress toward that sort of misery, but we aren't going to know the exact low point until sometime after the fact. Our job isn't to guess exactly when we reach the nadir, but to stay safe, let it play out and be ready to invest when we start to shows some signs of sustained recovery.
So many investors add to the collective misery by buying too soon in hopes of catching the ultimate low. They are sucked in by the siren song of bottom calls by pundits who ignore the wreckage they cause with their continued attempts to seek glory.
As I see folks who are down 20% or more for the year, I'm amazed to see the same old stories about the futility of timing the market. We are told to hold on tight because things are sure to get better. Yes, they will, and if you don't have to make up huge losses when they do, you will be far, far ahead.
The problem is that too many folks ignored the problems in this market for way too long and now they feel they have no choice but to sit there and do nothing. Instead of using disciplined methods to take them out of weak positions, they embraced the serial bottom-callers and bullish arguments and relied on hope.
It makes me angry that so many in Wall Street encourage passivity for individual investors who have the ability to be highly flexible. Those investors are now paying a tremendous price for it and are told to just continue to wait and do nothing.
Many of these folks will be the ones who finally give up in a fit of despair, and that is when the real bottom will eventually come. So be patient, but don't do it while sitting on lots of positions.
We have a slightly soft start this morning as the very poor news flow continues and gold and oil reverse some of yesterday's big gains.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: COMS +10.5%, CC +8.8%, UNP +1.6%... M&A news: IMCL +6.1% (Bristol-Myers Squibb raises bid for ImClone Systems to $62.00 per share)... Select airline stocks ticking higher with crude lower: NWA +4.2%, LCC +3.5%, AMR +3.4%, UAUA +3.4%, CAL +2.9%... Other news: DSL +20.6% (names Charles R. Rinehart Chief Executive Officer), AIG +9.7% and ABK +6.8% (still checking for anything specific), ABX +2.3% and AEM +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: ATML +4.7% (initiated with a Buy at UBS), NLY +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CACH -11.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Roth)... Select financial related stocks showing weakness: WM -9.6% (Moody's downgrades WM's covered bond ratings to Baa1, on review), LYG -8.6%, WB -8.5%, UBS -6.8%, CS -5.1%, RF -3.8% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), ING -2.5%, BCS -1.4%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: RTP -11.9% (has signalled its intention to move away from traditional long-term contracts and instead increase amount of sales both into the spot market and through so-called hybrid contracts - FT), AAUK -6.6%, GFI -4.6%, BHP -4.5%, DROOY -4.1%, HMY -3.4%, BBL -2.8%, GLD -1.5%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -5.0%, DSX -3.1%, DRYS -3.0%, EGLE -2.7%... Other news: CEF -9.2% (announces that it plans to offer Class A Shares of Central Fund to the public in Canada and the United States under its existing $750 mln base shelf prospectus), HGR -6.2% (announces underwritten public offering by shareholder of 2.5 mln shares)... Analyst comments: EPIC -4.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Cowen), STM -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), DXPE -3.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jesup & Lamont), GE -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), MU -2.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), CHS -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/23/2008 7:50 AM EDT
One day I sat thinking, almost in despair; a hand fell on my shoulder and a voice said reassuringly, "Cheer up, things could get worse." So I cheered up and, sure enough, things got worse.
-- James Hagerty
The market mood is growing increasingly grim as politicians argue over socializing hundreds of billions in banking losses, and crude oil and the dollar trade in chaotic fashion. The big reversal on Monday went a long way in undermining the brief bout of confidence that result from the euphoria over a bailout and forced short squeeze we had on Thursday and Friday. Market players are quickly coming to the realization that we have some huge problems out there that are not going to be quickly solved.
The big problem with this giant bailout is that rather than boost confidence, it scared many investors who really had no idea that things were in such poor shape. The market has been flopping around like a fish out of water all year and the issues in the banking sector were out there, but until they heard the word "trillion," many didn't realize how deep the problems were.
Unfortunately the market has not done a very good job of fully discounted the extent of the losses, and in fact still doesn't seem to have a very good idea of how bad they are. The good news is that at least we are now engaged in the process of recognizing the losses and adjusting expectations. It might take a while for the process to play out, but at least we are no longer burying our heads in the sand and ignoring the issues that have been out there for an awfully long time.
And now what? As I've said many times, bad markets tend to wear you out rather than scare you out. The bottom will be found amid gloom and despair rather than fear and hysteria. It is when market players start to believe they can never make money again and want nothing to do with stocks that we will slowly begin to turn the corner.
We certainly have made progress toward that sort of misery, but we aren't going to know the exact low point until sometime after the fact. Our job isn't to guess exactly when we reach the nadir, but to stay safe, let it play out and be ready to invest when we start to shows some signs of sustained recovery.
So many investors add to the collective misery by buying too soon in hopes of catching the ultimate low. They are sucked in by the siren song of bottom calls by pundits who ignore the wreckage they cause with their continued attempts to seek glory.
As I see folks who are down 20% or more for the year, I'm amazed to see the same old stories about the futility of timing the market. We are told to hold on tight because things are sure to get better. Yes, they will, and if you don't have to make up huge losses when they do, you will be far, far ahead.
The problem is that too many folks ignored the problems in this market for way too long and now they feel they have no choice but to sit there and do nothing. Instead of using disciplined methods to take them out of weak positions, they embraced the serial bottom-callers and bullish arguments and relied on hope.
It makes me angry that so many in Wall Street encourage passivity for individual investors who have the ability to be highly flexible. Those investors are now paying a tremendous price for it and are told to just continue to wait and do nothing.
Many of these folks will be the ones who finally give up in a fit of despair, and that is when the real bottom will eventually come. So be patient, but don't do it while sitting on lots of positions.
We have a slightly soft start this morning as the very poor news flow continues and gold and oil reverse some of yesterday's big gains.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: COMS +10.5%, CC +8.8%, UNP +1.6%... M&A news: IMCL +6.1% (Bristol-Myers Squibb raises bid for ImClone Systems to $62.00 per share)... Select airline stocks ticking higher with crude lower: NWA +4.2%, LCC +3.5%, AMR +3.4%, UAUA +3.4%, CAL +2.9%... Other news: DSL +20.6% (names Charles R. Rinehart Chief Executive Officer), AIG +9.7% and ABK +6.8% (still checking for anything specific), ABX +2.3% and AEM +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: ATML +4.7% (initiated with a Buy at UBS), NLY +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CACH -11.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Roth)... Select financial related stocks showing weakness: WM -9.6% (Moody's downgrades WM's covered bond ratings to Baa1, on review), LYG -8.6%, WB -8.5%, UBS -6.8%, CS -5.1%, RF -3.8% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), ING -2.5%, BCS -1.4%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices: RTP -11.9% (has signalled its intention to move away from traditional long-term contracts and instead increase amount of sales both into the spot market and through so-called hybrid contracts - FT), AAUK -6.6%, GFI -4.6%, BHP -4.5%, DROOY -4.1%, HMY -3.4%, BBL -2.8%, GLD -1.5%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -5.0%, DSX -3.1%, DRYS -3.0%, EGLE -2.7%... Other news: CEF -9.2% (announces that it plans to offer Class A Shares of Central Fund to the public in Canada and the United States under its existing $750 mln base shelf prospectus), HGR -6.2% (announces underwritten public offering by shareholder of 2.5 mln shares)... Analyst comments: EPIC -4.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Cowen), STM -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), DXPE -3.1% (downgraded to Hold at Jesup & Lamont), GE -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), MU -2.3% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), CHS -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray).
U.S. financial rescue plan will have very positive impact on mortgage markets, according to White House
;-)
;-)
Aga ei julgeks ka vastu vaielda...
Bloombergis täna video, kus Goldman Sachsi Jim O'Neill (Head of Global Economic Research) räägib, et majanduslanguse oht on oluliselt vähenenud ning peale kahte aastat negatiivset nägemust on nad pärast $700B bailouti kinnisvaraturu suhtes positiivseks muutumas.
Bloombergis täna video, kus Goldman Sachsi Jim O'Neill (Head of Global Economic Research) räägib, et majanduslanguse oht on oluliselt vähenenud ning peale kahte aastat negatiivset nägemust on nad pärast $700B bailouti kinnisvaraturu suhtes positiivseks muutumas.
Et siis riik kompenseerib pahad laenud ja võib jälle rahvale kontrollimatult laene anda, mis viib majanduskasvule? Huvitav, et Eesti sellist varianti ei kasuta.
Madis,
päris ülivõrdes on ehk vara hakata hõiskama
see pigem pingutus sentimenti toetada
päris ülivõrdes on ehk vara hakata hõiskama
see pigem pingutus sentimenti toetada
Fedil on hea meetod naftahinda allapoole lükata - lase aga mõni pank pankrotti ja läheb nagu iseenesest! :-D