US maj uudiseid ka kohe tulemas Mar 24: Durable Orders for Feb. (8:30 am), New Home Sales for Feb. (10:00 am)
- Turud on neli päeva järjest langenud ning oleks juba viimane aeg põrgata, kui ei, siis on oodata kukkumist psühholoogiliselt olulistelt tasemetelt allapoole (Dow 10 000 ja Nasdaq 1900). Eelinfo on soodne.
-Veebruaris kasvasid kestvuskaupade tellimused 2.5% ehk rohkem kui oodatud 1.7% kasv.
-Microsoft (MSFT) sai Euroopa Komisjonilt lõpuks 612 miljoni dollarilise trahvi ning ta on kohustatud 120 päeva jooksul jagama teavet oma operatsioonisüsteemi kohta konkureerivatele serveritootjatele. Tulemused olid ootustele vastavad ning aktsia on praeguselt hinnatasemelt atraktiivne.
-Microsofti konkurent Linuxi arendaja Red Hat (RHAT) on eelturul 12% plussis, eile avaldatud neljanda kvartali tulemused olid positiivsed - kasum 5 miljonit dollarit ja käive 37 miljonit dollarit, aasta tagasi oli kasum 26 miljonit ning firma oli just nulli jõudnud.
-Valuutaturul tugevnes dollar euro vastu 1.2% 1.218 usd/eur tasemeni, samas kui jeeni vastu dollar veidi nõrgenes. Jeeni tugevuse taga on Standard & Poors otsus tõsta maa reitinguväljavaadet "negatiivselt" "stabiilse" peale.
Rev Shark:
Mr. Emerson's succulent guide to financial success is also a very good summary of ingredients needed for success in the stock market. Cool, calm logic, timely action and patience are the keys. Many traders possess great reasoning skills and are very adept at moving aggressively but have a difficult time when it comes to patience, especially in the current market environment.
To many market participants, patience seems contrary to what successful traders do. The perception is that successful traders are in constant motion: They are actively buying and selling and if they aren't it means they have failed. Good traders should be finding a constant supply of opportunities and making big bold moves on a regular basis.
Maybe to some extent, but it depends a great deal on your particular style. An intraday trader with a very short time frame obviously shouldn't cultivate the same level of patience as someone with a time frame of days or weeks. Those with a short bias need to wait out market rallies while those with a long bias need to wait out market pullbacks.
What makes the market particularly difficult is that effective trading requires both quick, decisive action as well as patience. We have to be prepared to sit and wait for long stretches and then act quickly and aggressively when the time is right. It can be a very hard transition to make. Those who are adept at staying patient often have a hard time acting boldly, and vice versa.
In this market, many of us have a hard time resisting the itch for action. We anxiously anticipate what will happen in the future and find ourselves implementing our battle plans before the time is right. We use up our ammunition and then when Mr. Market is most vulnerable we are incapable of taking advantage.
Even if you consider yourself an active trader, patience is a virtue you need to cultivate. That doesn't mean you do nothing; it means you make plans, plot strategy, stay vigilant and prepare to attack when the time is right. You might test the trading waters now and then, but if you conserve your cash ammunition wisely you will profit when the battle begins in earnest.
The big question this morning is how much further the market has to correct. The bad news is that we are still in a downtrend and exhibiting few signs of making a major trend change. The good news is that many stocks have already pulled back substantially. Of the Nasdaq 100 stocks, 56 are below their 200-day moving average, which is about where we were when the market bottomed out a year ago. Of course, the prices are a lot higher now but that is not an insubstantial correction.
Futures have been slowly improving so far this morning but investors remain wary, especially after another disappointing close yesterday afternoon. The hard work of patient preparation awaits us. Don't get lazy and act before the time is right.
Gary B. Smith:
Fun fact of the day...there have been 18 times since 1985 when the NDX has been down 1% or more on Friday, down 1% or more on Monday, and down .5% or more on Tuesday. The next day the NDX was higher 15 out of the 18 times, for an average gain of 2%. After 5 days, it was still higher 15 times, with an avg return of 2.9%. The three times it showed a loss were 9/9/86, 10/20/87 and 10/3/00, all of which were "interesting" situations.
Sellest siis viimane müügisurve.
Lisaks valin välja mingi portsu aktsiaid, mis on küll head, kuid veidi liiga kiiresti tõusnud. Nii kui aktsia toetuse juurde tagasi vajub, annab alert teada.
Pomm oli seega üsna suvaline ja turg leidiski sellest kergendusest põhjuse põrkamiseks.
Üks minu silmis üsna kõva turukommentaator (Bill Fleckenstein) kutsub Micronit (MU) lendavaks seaks. Et kui juba Micron tõuseb, siis võivad ka sead lennata. Aga eks ta ole alates 2000 aastast ka tehnoloogia suhtes üsna karune olnud (s.h. ka eelmine aasta).
Tõus on täna ilus ja ka käive paistab korralik. Kui eilse päeva lõpp oli üks võimalikest halvemaid stsenaariumeid, siis tänane ilus liikumine on üsna üllatav. Kuid eks turg sageli siis pöörab, kui seda eriti ei oodata.
Tehnoloogia täna tugev (oluliselt tugevam kui vana majandus) ja sektorite vaheline liikumine lähipäevil oluline.
QQQ 34.65 ja Nasdaq Composite 1930 on tasemed mida vaatan, kui nendest suudetakse kõrgemal sulguda, siis on eeldused tõusu jätkuks head. Kuid siiski olen ettevaatlik - tehniline laastamistöö on olnud tugev ja üks ilus päev seda kiirelt veel ei paranda.
thanks
THC järelturul +5.5%
16:30 THC Tenet Healthcare reaches settlement with DoJ (10.28 -0.35)
Co announces that Tenet and certain of its subsidiaries signed a definitive settlement agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice and other parties that ends an investigation of certain physician employment matters at one Tenet hospital in Florida as well as a federal transfer-discharge inquiry that involved substantially all Tenet hospitals. The settlement agreement includes a total payment by Tenet of $30.75 mln. "The resolution of these two matters is an important step forward as Tenet works to rebuild its business and its reputation."