Börsipäev 22. veebruar

Investeerimine
21
Oil-Drenched Downside
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/22/2011 8:45 AM EST

The oil can is mightier than the sword.
 -- Everett Dirksen

The market barely blinked as the revolution in Egypt took place, but it is very worried this morning over the potential downfall of a brutal dictator in Libya for one main reason: oil. There is concern now that the unrest in the Middle East will disrupt the oil supply, and that is causing some major worries.

It isn't too surprising that the market finally has a good excuse for some selling since it has gone practically straight up since Thanksgiving. We always eventually find a good reason to consolidate when we are technically extended.

So is this just a hiccup and a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a more severe correction? Obviously the smart bet for a very long time has been to expect the market to bounce right back. Since the low in March 2009, all dips have been buying opportunities, but recently we have not even had two substantial down days in a row. If you didn't buy right away, you were left behind very quickly.

The main thing to keep in mind at this point is that market players are still very conditioned to buy weakness. Since the bulls have had such great success for so long, they are going to automatically jump in on weakness. One thing you can count on market players to do is to repeat the same behavior over and over again until it stops producing positive results.

We really have to watch for failed bounces. If the market trend is going to turn, we are going to see a series of failed bounce attempts. Eventually the dip-buyers will give up and then the stuck bulls will look for escape and help downside pressure to build. Tops take some time to play out, so typically it isn't a great move to panic-sell into the first dip off a new high.

Back on Jan. 28 we had some very ugly action all day as the Egyptian issue spooked the market, but we bounced back the next day and completely recouped our losses by the close the day after that. I'm sure many market players are thinking that will happen again, but it is very different when oil is involved. If other oil-rich countries like Saudi Arabia start to have problems, it is going to be a major challenge for the market.

Let's see how we act after we open. So many stocks are technically extended, it sure isn't going to be bad if they consolidate. Most have a long way to drop before they challenge support, but it can still be pretty painful if you're holding too much. Many have wanted a buying opportunity; now we will see if they really are willing to buy or are they going to be worried that the problems in the Middle East will spread.

We are already well off the early lows this morning, but it's a long day and there is likely to be some news flow to contend with. Stay on your toes.
22
February Consumer Confidence 70.4 vs 67.0 Briefing.com consensus; January 64.8
23
Reuters vahendab Yuanta Securities teadet, et Apple on sunnitud tootmisprobleemide tõttu iPad2’e müügitähtaja aprilli pealt juunisse lükkama. Nimelt on komponentide tootjad pidanud uue disaini tõttu tootmisprotsesse muutma ning sellest tulenevad probleemid vajavad lisaaega, et neid lahendada. Yuanta Securities teatas, et kui iPad2 lükatakse kaks kuud edasi, vähendatakse käesoleva aasta müügimahu prognoosi 30.6 miljoni ühiku pealt 23 miljoni ühikuni.

BusinessInsider kirjutab, et ka iPhone5 müügiletulek võib juuni-juuli pealt edasi lükkuda septembrisse. FBR Capital Markets analüütik Craig Berger viitab sellele, et mitmete komponentide tarnijaid pole veel välja valitud. Samas ütleb Berger, et käesoleval aastal plaanib Apple ehitada 100 miljonit iPhone’i vs analüütikute ootus 75 miljonit.
24
CNBC, citing Reuters, says Libya has declared force majeure on all oil product exports and imports are also blocked
25
$35 bln 2-year Note Auction: Yield 0.745%; Bid/Cover 3.03x (Prior 3.47x, 4-auction avg 3.58x, 12-auction avg 3.36x); Dollar Demand $106.5 bln (Prior $121.5 bln. 4-auction avg $125.2 bln, 12-auction avg $129.2 bln); Indirect Bidders 31.2% (Prior 27.0%, 4-auction avg 32.0%, 12-auction avg 35.5%)
26
Paraku alahindasin täna negatiivseid meeleolusid turul ja SINA avanemisel eelturu tasemetest enam ülespoole ei tulnudki. Aktsia avanes $80,06 peal ehk ligi 6,5% miinuses ning seejärel aktsia jätkas langust, käies ära ka $77,50 peal ehk ligi 12,5% miinuspoolel. Hetkel on aktsia oma päeva põhjadest küll taastunud ja kaupleb $78,50 kandis ehk 8% miinuspoolel.

27
Bloomberg TV reporting that Germany's Chancellor Merkel said extending the Greek aid program is on the table
28
Tänane Wall Street Journal toob välja aktsiate TOP 10, mis riskifondid enda portfellides hoiavad.
Nimekiri on kokku pandud Goldman Sachsi analüütikute poolt.
Ilmselt ei tule üllatusena, et kõige populaarsem aktsia on fondijuhtide seas Apple (AAPL). Ülejäänud nimekiri näeb välja selline:
Citigroup
Microsoft
J.P. Morgan Chase
Google
Pfizer
General Motors Co.
Lyondellbasell Industries
Alcon
CIT Group
Olgu öeldud, et nimekiri on koostatud möödunud aasta kolmanda kvartali seisuga.
29
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) prelim $0.70 vs $0.63 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $1.98 bln vs $2.37 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
30
Hewlett-Packard prelim $1.36 vs $1.29 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $32.3 bln vs $32.95 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
Hewlett-Packard sees Q2 $1.19-1.21 vs $1.25 Thomson Reuters consensus; sees revs $31.4-31.6 bln vs $32.59 bln Thomson Reuters consensus

HPQ ka tulemustega väljas ning ühtlasi alandab teise kvartali prognoose.
Järelturul kaupleb aktsia selle peale juba 6% miinuspoolel, $45 all.