FedEx prelim $1.46 vs $1.45 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $10.52 bln vs $10.30 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
FedEx sees Q2 $1.40-1.60 vs $1.55 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; lowers FY12 to$6.25-6.75 from $6.35-6.85 vs. $6.36 consensus
"The U.S. and global economy grew at a slower rate than we anticipated during the quarter. While FedEx Ground and FedEx Freight achieved improved operating results despite lower than expected growth, the more rapid decline in demand for FedEx Express services, particularly from Asia, outpaced our ability to reduce operating costs. We have slightly reduced our earnings forecast to reflect current business conditions and are aggressively working to adjust our cost structure to match demand levels."
Initial Claims 423K vs 418K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 432K from 428K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.727 mln from 3.755 mln
Continuing Claims falls to 3.727 mln from 3.755 mln
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MLHR +8.4%, RHT +5.7%, INTU +1.3% (light volume).
M&A news: GR +10.5% (Goodrich to be acquired by United Technologies for $127.50 per share).
Other news: TNH +4.3% (rebounding from 2-day 40 point drop; still checking for anything specific), MOS +2.2% (will replace National Semiconductor in the S&P 500 index).
Analyst comments: YHOO +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SYK +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), HNZ +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), NFLX +0.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MLHR +8.4%, RHT +5.7%, INTU +1.3% (light volume).
M&A news: GR +10.5% (Goodrich to be acquired by United Technologies for $127.50 per share).
Other news: TNH +4.3% (rebounding from 2-day 40 point drop; still checking for anything specific), MOS +2.2% (will replace National Semiconductor in the S&P 500 index).
Analyst comments: YHOO +1.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SYK +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), HNZ +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), NFLX +0.6% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS).
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LOGI -13.8%, KMX -9.9%, SCS -8.6%, HON -2.2%, FDX -1%, BBBY -0.8%.
M&A news: UTX -4.5% (Goodrich to be acquired by United Technologies for $127.50 per share; accretive to UTX in second year; UTX reaffirms FY11 EPS and rev guidance).
Financial related names under considerable pressure: NBG -8.6%, LYG -5.2%, BCS -4.8%, ING -4.8%, BBVA -4.1%, HBC -4%, C -4%, MS -3.8%, CS -3.7%, STD -3.3%, DB -2.8%, BAC -2.8%, GS -2.8%, WFC -2.6%, UBS -2.4%, RBS -2.1%, XLF -1.7%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: JAG -7.2%, RIO -7.0%, SVM -6.5%, SLV -6.3%, MT -6.1%, EGO -5.9%, SLW -5.7%, AG -5.5%.
Other news: EEP -5.3% (announces offering of Class A common units), NCT -4.8% (prices 22.5 mln shares of common stock at $4.55), CRM -4.7% (has acquired Assistly for ~$50 mln in cash; acquisition is expected to reduce FY12 non-GAAP EPS by ~$0.02 to ~$1.28-1.30), UTX -4.5% (Goodrich to be acquired by United Technologies (UTX) for $127.50 per share; accretive to UTX in second year; UTX reaffirms FY11 EPS and rev guidance), RRC -2.6% (following 3 point jump yesterday on continued M&A speculation), MOS -2.5% (Mosaic intends to offer 18 mln shares of common stock in conjunction with inclusion into the S&P 500 Index), PFE -1.8% (new phase 3 safety data for Bazedoxifene/Conjugated estrogens show less than one percent incidence of endometrial hyperplasia ), HRBN -1.2% (files 8-K related to project entrance agreement).
Analyst comments: WPRT -7.8% (assumed with a Hold at Canaccord Genuity), SYT -4.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), STO -3.5% (removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman), ATHN -3.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), HOV -3% (Hovnanian downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), SNN -2.4% (Smith & Nephew downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citigroup), PG -1.8% (Procter & Gamble downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), JNJ -1.6% (Johnson & Johnson downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LOGI -13.8%, KMX -9.9%, SCS -8.6%, HON -2.2%, FDX -1%, BBBY -0.8%.
M&A news: UTX -4.5% (Goodrich to be acquired by United Technologies for $127.50 per share; accretive to UTX in second year; UTX reaffirms FY11 EPS and rev guidance).
Financial related names under considerable pressure: NBG -8.6%, LYG -5.2%, BCS -4.8%, ING -4.8%, BBVA -4.1%, HBC -4%, C -4%, MS -3.8%, CS -3.7%, STD -3.3%, DB -2.8%, BAC -2.8%, GS -2.8%, WFC -2.6%, UBS -2.4%, RBS -2.1%, XLF -1.7%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: JAG -7.2%, RIO -7.0%, SVM -6.5%, SLV -6.3%, MT -6.1%, EGO -5.9%, SLW -5.7%, AG -5.5%.
Other news: EEP -5.3% (announces offering of Class A common units), NCT -4.8% (prices 22.5 mln shares of common stock at $4.55), CRM -4.7% (has acquired Assistly for ~$50 mln in cash; acquisition is expected to reduce FY12 non-GAAP EPS by ~$0.02 to ~$1.28-1.30), UTX -4.5% (Goodrich to be acquired by United Technologies (UTX) for $127.50 per share; accretive to UTX in second year; UTX reaffirms FY11 EPS and rev guidance), RRC -2.6% (following 3 point jump yesterday on continued M&A speculation), MOS -2.5% (Mosaic intends to offer 18 mln shares of common stock in conjunction with inclusion into the S&P 500 Index), PFE -1.8% (new phase 3 safety data for Bazedoxifene/Conjugated estrogens show less than one percent incidence of endometrial hyperplasia ), HRBN -1.2% (files 8-K related to project entrance agreement).
Analyst comments: WPRT -7.8% (assumed with a Hold at Canaccord Genuity), SYT -4.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), STO -3.5% (removed from Conviction Buy list at Goldman), ATHN -3.2% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), HOV -3% (Hovnanian downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), SNN -2.4% (Smith & Nephew downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citigroup), PG -1.8% (Procter & Gamble downgraded to Neutral from Buy at SunTrust), JNJ -1.6% (Johnson & Johnson downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).
Initial claims siis vähenes võrreldes eelmise kuuga. Need pole muidugi kaunid numbrid, kuid ei meenuta ka 2008/2009 numbreid.
NFLX on saanud täna teise upgrade'i veel:
Huvitav, kas AMZN võimalikul ostuhuvil on ka mingi reaalne tugi all või on see analüüsimaja spekulatsioon?
Wedbush said Netflix's (NFLX) separation of Netflix.com, for streaming, and Qwikster.com, DVD rentals, was to position the streaming business for a potential sale to Amazon.com (AMZN). The firm believes the streaming business will be acquired by Amazon as the separation addresses tax issues that prohibited a purchase previously. Price target raised to $155 from $110.
Huvitav, kas AMZN võimalikul ostuhuvil on ka mingi reaalne tugi all või on see analüüsimaja spekulatsioon?
Minu arvates suhteliselt stabiilne olnud nende initial claimidega viimasel ajal.
Viimasel ajal on olnud suur erinevus makro- ja mikronäitajate vahel - esimesed nõrgad ja teised ikkagi suhteliselt või isegi väga head. Makro peaks ju väljendama seda, mis mikrokogumis toimub. Kuidas siis saab jätkuvalt olla selline lahknevus? Tulemuste hooaeg pole veel pihta hakanud, kuid kui vaadata kasvõi viimastel päevadel raporteerinud firmasid (näit. Oracle jt.), siis nendest numbritest küll midagi katastroofilist välja ei loe ei mineviku ega ka tulevikuennustuste seisukohalt. Kuidagi liialt oluline lahknevus tundub olema makro ja mikro vahel... Nagu erinevad maailmad.
AGM
Minu arvates suhteliselt stabiilne olnud nende initial claimidega viimasel ajal.
Paraku revideeritakse iga kord eelnevaid numbreid üles ja seetõttu peaks ka praegu arvestama, et mõni tuhat tuleb juurde. Ja teiseks tähendab üle 400-410 taseme jääv statistika, et üle 100 000 uue töökoha loomine ühes kuus muutub ebatõenäoliseks ning see ähvardab tööpuudust suurendada.
AGM
Minu arvates suhteliselt stabiilne olnud nende initial claimidega viimasel ajal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=INJCJC:IND
suhteliselt stabiilne tõus viimasel ajal tõepoolest :)
Citi tõstab täna Lennar (LEN) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 22 hinnasihiga.
The Seasonal Trade — Our upgrade of LEN is consistent with the seasonal homebuilder trade thesis we laid out in early September. We observe that, on average, from November thru January (1) in 8 of the last 10 years, the homebuilder index outperformed the S&P 500 by ~8% and (2) in 6 of the past 10 years, LEN outperformed its peers and the S&P 500 by ~5% and ~13%, respectively. In our coverage universe, only DHI has historically outperformed LEN during the seasonal homebuilder trade.
Analüütikud nimetavad antud ideed hooajaliseks tehinguks, kuna ajalooliselt on novembrist jaanuarini ehitajate indeks turu keskmisest liikumisest parem olnud.
Why We’re Feathering in Now — Although we’re only in late September, we want to go long LEN now given that (1) the homebuilders have underperformed so dramatically (2) LEN’s ~15% discount to book is a rather compelling valuation when you consider that LEN is profitable and expanding its book value (3) trends in August were more benign than feared by many investors and (4) the potential catalyst described below.
Our inclination is to continue to increase our homebuilder exposure in the weeks ahead and our preference is to continue buying what we view as the higher quality names with less company specific risk. That DHI and LEN are both higher quality and likely to outperform their peers during the seasonal trade is a win-win in our view.
Teiseks on antud hinnatase loonud LEN aktsias hea ostukoha ning arvestades seda, et LEN on kasumit teeniv ettevõtte ja lisaks eelnevale oli august märksa parem, kui paljud investorid kartsid.
Lisaks Citi analüütikutele on täna LEN suhtes positiivne ka J.P.Morgani analüütikud, kes kinnitavad oma Osta soovitust aktsiale koos $ 21 hinnasihiga.
Täna pole kindlasti parim päev upgrade`de jaoks, aga sellegipoolest või LEN-i täna radarile võtta, sest teatud mõttes on Citi idee pikaajalisem, panustades ajaloolistele trendidele.
Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 13,60 kandis, 1,8% miinuspoolel.
The Seasonal Trade — Our upgrade of LEN is consistent with the seasonal homebuilder trade thesis we laid out in early September. We observe that, on average, from November thru January (1) in 8 of the last 10 years, the homebuilder index outperformed the S&P 500 by ~8% and (2) in 6 of the past 10 years, LEN outperformed its peers and the S&P 500 by ~5% and ~13%, respectively. In our coverage universe, only DHI has historically outperformed LEN during the seasonal homebuilder trade.
Analüütikud nimetavad antud ideed hooajaliseks tehinguks, kuna ajalooliselt on novembrist jaanuarini ehitajate indeks turu keskmisest liikumisest parem olnud.
Why We’re Feathering in Now — Although we’re only in late September, we want to go long LEN now given that (1) the homebuilders have underperformed so dramatically (2) LEN’s ~15% discount to book is a rather compelling valuation when you consider that LEN is profitable and expanding its book value (3) trends in August were more benign than feared by many investors and (4) the potential catalyst described below.
Our inclination is to continue to increase our homebuilder exposure in the weeks ahead and our preference is to continue buying what we view as the higher quality names with less company specific risk. That DHI and LEN are both higher quality and likely to outperform their peers during the seasonal trade is a win-win in our view.
Teiseks on antud hinnatase loonud LEN aktsias hea ostukoha ning arvestades seda, et LEN on kasumit teeniv ettevõtte ja lisaks eelnevale oli august märksa parem, kui paljud investorid kartsid.
Lisaks Citi analüütikutele on täna LEN suhtes positiivne ka J.P.Morgani analüütikud, kes kinnitavad oma Osta soovitust aktsiale koos $ 21 hinnasihiga.
Täna pole kindlasti parim päev upgrade`de jaoks, aga sellegipoolest või LEN-i täna radarile võtta, sest teatud mõttes on Citi idee pikaajalisem, panustades ajaloolistele trendidele.
Hetkel kaupleb aktsia $ 13,60 kandis, 1,8% miinuspoolel.
Henno, kui sa teeksid graafiku veel mitte 10-tuhandese intervalliga vaid näiteks tuhandesega, siis paistaks liikumine veel järsem - elementaarne graafikute koostamise ABC :-) See 10-20 tuhat siia-sinna kuust-kuusse pole USA-suuruse majanduse jaoks mingi oluline liikumine.
Hõbe saab täna kuidagi eriti valusalt pihta, peaaegu -9%.
AGM
Henno, kui sa teeksid graafiku veel mitte 10-tuhandese intervalliga vaid näiteks tuhandesega, siis paistaks liikumine veel järsem - elementaarne graafikute koostamise ABC :-) See 10-20 tuhat siia-sinna kuust-kuusse pole USA-suuruse majanduse jaoks mingi oluline liikumine.
AGM, mina ei koosta Bloombergis graafikuid, aga Sul on võimalus oma graafikute koostamise ABC koolitust neile pakkuda soovi korral
Ei ole vaja, see alumine interaktiivne graafik näitab pilti palju selgemini. Eks igaüks vaatab, mida tahab :-) Küsimus on lihtsalt, mida pidada oluliseks liikumiseks. Ma väidan, et 10 - 20 tuhat ei ole väga olulise mõjuga. Seda muidugi tavaolukorras. Praegusel turul on ka 1000 ilmselt palju.
The Morning After
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 22, 2011 | 8:45 AM EDT
"Try to relax and enjoy the crisis." --Ashleigh Brilliant
If the Fed can't save this market, what will?
Although it wasn't at all surprising, yesterday's announcement of Operation Twist produced a strong negative market reaction. Some market players were hoping that the Fed would expand its balance sheet rather than just adjust maturities, and the statement that there are "significant downside risks to the economic outlook" didn't help matters.
What's most troubling isn't what the Fed did or didn't do, but the market's reaction. This is the first time since the low in March 2009 that a Fed action has been greeted with so much pessimism. The market has consistently reacted in celebratory fashion to just about everything Fed chief Ben Bernanke has done and said, so it is very worrisome that the market is losing faith and acting as if the Fed is out of ways to bolster this economy.
Unfortunately, without the Fed to act as a support, we have to look at the news flow and the fundamentals -- and that sure isn't going to entice many buyers. Maybe the contrarians who believe that things are so gloomy that they can't get much worse might be interested in catching some falling knifes, but the average investor is going to have a tough time finding reasons to be a buyer. The economic news and the crisis in Europe are downright frightening, and there is no quick resolution in sight.
If we forget the fact that the news flow is absolutely terrible and just look at the technical picture, it doesn't provide much confidence. Since the market's sharp early August drop, we have been in a wide trading range between 1120 and 1225 on the S&P 500. There have been three attempts to break to the upside on "Greece Is Saved!" news that no one really believes anyway.
We have held above the 1120 level, but we are going to come close to testing it this morning. As I've stated, I'm very concerned that if we test that level again it won't hold. The general rule is that the more a level is tested, the more likely it will not hold. I don't think the market is going to bottom out until we make a new low for the year and produce another washout.
I don't see any reason to play the bottom-calling game. If you aren't already short, the best place to be is in cash. The fundamental situation right now looks as bleak as it has been since the 2008-2009 crisis, and the lesson of that period was not to underestimate how much we can drop.
Think defense.
By James "Rev Shark" DePorre
Sep 22, 2011 | 8:45 AM EDT
"Try to relax and enjoy the crisis." --Ashleigh Brilliant
If the Fed can't save this market, what will?
Although it wasn't at all surprising, yesterday's announcement of Operation Twist produced a strong negative market reaction. Some market players were hoping that the Fed would expand its balance sheet rather than just adjust maturities, and the statement that there are "significant downside risks to the economic outlook" didn't help matters.
What's most troubling isn't what the Fed did or didn't do, but the market's reaction. This is the first time since the low in March 2009 that a Fed action has been greeted with so much pessimism. The market has consistently reacted in celebratory fashion to just about everything Fed chief Ben Bernanke has done and said, so it is very worrisome that the market is losing faith and acting as if the Fed is out of ways to bolster this economy.
Unfortunately, without the Fed to act as a support, we have to look at the news flow and the fundamentals -- and that sure isn't going to entice many buyers. Maybe the contrarians who believe that things are so gloomy that they can't get much worse might be interested in catching some falling knifes, but the average investor is going to have a tough time finding reasons to be a buyer. The economic news and the crisis in Europe are downright frightening, and there is no quick resolution in sight.
If we forget the fact that the news flow is absolutely terrible and just look at the technical picture, it doesn't provide much confidence. Since the market's sharp early August drop, we have been in a wide trading range between 1120 and 1225 on the S&P 500. There have been three attempts to break to the upside on "Greece Is Saved!" news that no one really believes anyway.
We have held above the 1120 level, but we are going to come close to testing it this morning. As I've stated, I'm very concerned that if we test that level again it won't hold. The general rule is that the more a level is tested, the more likely it will not hold. I don't think the market is going to bottom out until we make a new low for the year and produce another washout.
I don't see any reason to play the bottom-calling game. If you aren't already short, the best place to be is in cash. The fundamental situation right now looks as bleak as it has been since the 2008-2009 crisis, and the lesson of that period was not to underestimate how much we can drop.
Think defense.
AGM
Henno, kui sa teeksid graafiku veel mitte 10-tuhandese intervalliga vaid näiteks tuhandesega, siis paistaks liikumine veel järsem - elementaarne graafikute koostamise ABC :-) See 10-20 tuhat siia-sinna kuust-kuusse pole USA-suuruse majanduse jaoks mingi oluline liikumine.
AGM
Ei ole vaja, see alumine interaktiivne graafik näitab pilti palju selgemini. Eks igaüks vaatab, mida tahab :-) Küsimus on lihtsalt, mida pidada oluliseks liikumiseks. Ma väidan, et 10 - 20 tuhat ei ole väga olulise mõjuga. Seda muidugi tavaolukorras. Praegusel turul on ka 1000 ilmselt palju.
rasketel hetkedel on meeleolu hoidmine tähtis, aga mitte enesepetmise hinnaga
ma olen absoluutselt kindel selles, et mitte iial ei ole me perioodis, kus laekub ainult häid või ainult halbu uudiseid ja enamuse ajast on head või halvad uudised vaid napis ülekaalus
aga kõigi uudiste tõlgendamine vastavalt oma soovile kas headeks või halbadeks on ohtlik tõbi, mis põhjustab tõsiseid komplikatsioone
enamik investeerimisega kokku puutuvaid inimesi põeb selle haiguse läbi, üldjuhul kogemus ja terve mõtlemine aitavad muutuda immuunseks selle suhtes ja näha maailma kõigis võimalikes toonides, mitte musta või valgena
mul ei ole aega Sinuga sel teemal edaspidi rohkem suhelda, seega panen lukku oma arvamuse, et isegi USA suuruse riigi jaoks ei ole alates 25.02.2011 kestev ülestrend iganädalase initial claims osas tühiasi
P.S. Sul pole vähimatki aimu, milliseid graafikuid ma tegelikult vaatan ja koostan, küll aga võid kindel olla, et need ei ole pärit Bloombergi veebist, kasutan viimaseid vaid selleks, et paremaid pole võimalik siia foorumisse postitada
:)
Henno, võta nüüd asja rahulikult, see teema ei väärinuks küll nii pikka traktaati. Pole nagu teema, mille üle vaielda. Discalimeri korras võin öelda, et tegelen kauplemisega juba vähemalt 10 aastat ning kõik need asjad teada ja ka oma vitsad ammu saadud. Igaühel on oma näitajad, mida teistest tähtsamateks peetakse ning mille põhjal otsuseid tehakse, teisel on lihtsalt taustaks. Over and out.
Huvitav kas need ülalmainitud ultrapeened graafikud aitavad ka paremat tootlikust saada, või tõmbavad asendustegevusena hoopis tähelepanu kõevale :)
FT story saying that EU looking to recapitalize 16 banks