Euroopas on täna vahelduseks olnud näha ka korralikumat müügisurvet ning suurem osa indeksitest ca 1% miinuses. USA alustab päeva ca 0.7%lise miinusega, nafta on kukkunud 4% $69.6 peale.
Euroopa turud: Saksamaa DAX -1.20% Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.73% Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.95% Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.04% Rootsi OMX 30 -0.90% Venemaa MICEX -3.06% Poola WIG -0.16%
Aasia turud: Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud) Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.70% Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.14% Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.54% Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.30% Tai Set 50 -0.48% India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)
The Balancing Act By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 9/21/2009 8:31 AM EDT
There's no secret to balance. You just have to feel the waves. -- Frank Herbert
The great dilemma for investors in a strongly trending market is to find the balance between strong momentum and respect for overbought conditions. The problem is that extended markets almost always become even more extended. If you are too quick to look for momentum to cool, you'll probably be on the sidelines prematurely. On the other hand, if you are blind to the fact that charts are too lofty, there is great danger of being caught in a sudden reversal.
The present market has been particularly tricky because there has been such strong momentum and so few pullbacks and charts are just becoming more and more extended. The level of bullishness is growing, but the easy entry points are becoming increasingly scarce.
The stock market is always a balancing act between prudence and conviction, which is what makes it so difficult. If you are overly prudent, you risk being left behind; if you are overly convinced, you risk being disappointed.
My view recently has been to give the momentum particularly strong regard because the dips have been so shallow and so quickly bought. Market players just haven't seen any hesitance among buyers, which has driven the dip-buyers to be extremely aggressive and has kept the uptrend so strong.
In a market environment with such a strong uptrend, there are very big profits to protect, making the risks of sudden spikes down quite high as bouts of profit-taking kick in. On the other hand, the dip-buyers are going to be lurking and ready to jump in because that strategy has worked so well. The net result is that volatility is likely to increase. There will be a rush to protect profits that will create an air pocket, but then the dip-buyers will decide it is time to jump back in ... and up we go again.
Ultimately, increased volatility of this sort tends to be a sign of a turning point, but it is a process that takes time to play out. The dip-buyers eventually become less certain as the quick recoveries become less energetic and the profit-takers become more aggressive in protecting big gains.
We are still clearly in the uptrend phase, but the danger of some air pockets is growing as we become more technically extended. However, it is too early to look for the dip-buyers to give up, so the uptrend is likely to stay very sticky to the upside. In addition, I suspect there will be plenty of talk about end-of-the-quarter window dressing as a catalyst to hold us up.
This morning we have a bit of an air pocket as financials and commodity-related stocks are suffering some profit-taking. Even the sainted Apple (AAPL) has a downgrade. Buyers have typically been quick to jump on morning weakness lately, so we'll see how things shape up after the open. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
M&A news: PER +65.8% (Dell to acquire Perot Systems for $30 per share in cash)... Select stem cell related names showing strength: CUR +60.4% (receives FDA approval to commence first ALS Stem Cell Trial), STEM +5.2%... Other news: ICGN +28.3% (announces extension of Pfizer Collaboration, Pfizer will provide ~$5.0 mln in committed funding to ICGN), AEZS +15.4% (announced the completion of a Phase 1 study AEZS-112), NKTR +14.8% (Nektar Therapeutics and AstraZeneca sign agreement for Nektar drug development programs to address opioid-induced constipation), INCY +13.2% (announces positive top-line Phase IIb results for topical INCB18424 in Psoriasis), FFBC +11.9% (light volume; acquires the banking operations of Irwin Union Bank and Trust Company and Irwin Union Bank, F.S.B.), IPXL +6.6% (reports "positive" results of Phase II Trial of IPX066, a novel formulation of carbidopa-levodopa for Parkinson's Disease), BCRX +4.3% (awarded additional $77.2 mln by the U.S. Dept of Health & Human Services to develop Peramivir for influenza), HAIN +3.9% and TKLC +3.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AMGN +2.9% (Ph. 3 trial shows denosumab delayed skeletal related events in advanced cancer patients with bone metastases), MWW +1.5% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: CYT +5.0% (upgraded to Buy at Keybanc), NTAP +3.0% (raised to Conviction Buy from Neutral by Goldman- DJ), CELG +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), NVLS +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SWWC -7.2%, POT -4.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), LEN -3.3% ... M&A news: DELL -4.1% (Dell to acquire Perot Systems for $3.9 bln or $30 per share in cash), FACT -1.0% (Biogen Idec Commences Tender Offer for Facet Biotech for $14.50/share in cash)... Select financial related names showing weakness: RBS -7.6% (Royal Bank of Scotland eyes 3 bln pounds share issue - FT), AIB -6.5%, IRE -6.2%, LYG -4.4% (plans to issue mortgage-backed securities - WSJ), ING -2.4%, BAC -2.2%, BAC -1.5%, AXA -1.3%, AIG -1.2%... Select ag/chemical related names trading lower following POT guidance: AGU -2.9%, MOS -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), MON -1.9%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -4.9% (Arcelor Mittal too upbeat about steel rebound, say rivals - FT; also downgraded to Neutral at BNP), RTP -3.1%, GOLD -2.8%, BHP -2.4%... Other news: IFC -54.2% (First Financial acquires the banking operations of Irwin Union Bank and Trust Company and Irwin Union Bank, F.S.B.), DPTR -32.7% (announced initial completion results from the Gray 31-23 well in the Columbia River Basin), GTN -13.2% (still checking), QDEL -9.1% (issues clarification regarding the Special 510(k) clearance), ALTI -7.0% (files $150 mln mixed shelf registration), NCT -5.6% (pulling back from last week's 90%+ surge higher), E -4.2% (still checking), BUSE -3.0% (announces public offering of 18,000,000 shares of its common stock), AMAT -1.0% (announced a reorganization of certain members of its executive staff; also downgraded to Average at Caris)... Analyst comments: Q -4.6% (added to ConvictioN Sell list at Goldman- Reuters), IOC -4.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), GET -3.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Wells Fargo), ARNA -3.5% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Leerink Swann), CMA -2.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), ANF -2.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Cowen), BK -2.1% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs -DJ), HOT -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Wells Fargo), EMC -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), AAPL -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at FTN Equity).
Valuutaturul on samuti EUR/USD kannapöörde teinud ja kukkunud 0.6% võrra 1.4619 juurde. Sellel kolmapäeval on FEDi miiting ja nädalalõpus G20 kohtumine, kust võib tulla vihjeid QE & madalate intressimäärad väljumisstrateegiate kohta. Siinkohal tuletaks meelde, kuidas dollar käitus, kui Fed on intressimäärasid tõstma hakanud:
Huvitaval kombel on dollar esimesed kuus kuud kukkunud (valuatsioon piirab küll täna EUR/USDi suurt kukkumist).
PS. Kulla hind on tugevama dollari peale $10 dollari võrra allpool & võitleb $1000 dollari piiriga.
Kuna QQQQ'del n-ö kukkus tänase päevaga 52-nädala graafikult ära senine kõrgeim sulgumishind, mis tehti 19. septembril 2008, siis täna võime põhimõtteliselt öelda, et oleme 1-aasta tipu sulgemishinnast, mis tehti möödunud reedel, täpselt 0.2% madalamal...
