Börsipäev 20. november

Investeerimine
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Päris huvitavad arengud viimasel ajal. Ülevõtmised erinevates sektorites on pullidele andnud palju jõudu.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Phelps Dodge (PD 95.02) announce that they have signed a definitive merger agreement under which FCX will acquire Phelps Dodge for approx $25.9 bln in cash and stock. Under the terms of the transaction, FCX will acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Phelps Dodge for a combination of cash and common shares of FCX for a total consideration of $126.46 per Phelps Dodge share, based on the closing price of FCX stock on November 17, 2006. Each Phelps Dodge shareholder would receive $88.00 per share in cash plus 0.67 common shares of FCX. In addition, FCX would deliver a total of 137 mln shares to Phelps Dodge shareholders, resulting in Phelps Dodge shareholders owning approx 38% of the combined co on a fully diluted basis.

Evraz Group S.A. and Oregon Steel Mills (OS) announce that they have signed a definitive agreement under which Evraz will acquire Oregon Steel for $63.25 per share, or an aggregate price of approx $2.3 bln. Under the terms of the agreement, a newly formed Evraz subsidiary will make a cash tender offer for all shares of Oregon Steel common stock and then merge with Oregon Steel.

Barrons räägib nädalavahetusel cardiac-device makeritest. Kaudselt on nendega seotud LHV Pro idee Greatbatch (GB).

Barron's reports the shares of cardiac-device makers trading at historically low multiples of about 20 times next year's profits, a fair number of professional health-care investors are looking at quarterly reports for any sign of a demand uptick. Monday Medtronic (MDT) reports results for its second fiscal quarter and Sanford Bernstein analyst Bruce Nudell suspects that if Medtronic's sales of defibrillators show any strength, a thrill would run through its shares and those of its rivals. "People are not concerned with the long term," says Nudell of his conversations with the buy side. "So, if it's a positive quarter, these stocks should go up." Nudell says that investors' attention will be riveted on a Dec. 7 meeting of experts convened by the FDA to discuss the clotting risks of heart stents: "It's going to be a zoo." But if the FDA's advisers temper their discussion, in light of the recently-reported studies, investors may well conclude that the blood-clot worries won't hurt earnings at Boston Scientific (BSX) or J&J (JNJ). The valuations of these device stocks reflect low-growth expectations. Any hint of faster sales gains -- in the low teens, say -- should spark investors to pay a little more for them.

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Reedel uudis FDAlt esteetilise kirurgia valdkonnas. Nimelt lubatakse üle 15 aasta taas turule silikonil põhinevad rinnaimplanaadid. Tollal viis keelustav otsus miljarditesse küündivate kohtukulude tõttu pankroti mitmed ettevõtted, kes implanaatide tootmisega tegelesid. Tänini oli võimalik paigaldada füsioloogilisel lahusel põhinevaid implanaate. Suurimad võitjad on Allergan (AGN), kes märtsis omandas implanaaditootja Inamedi ja Mentor (MNT), kelle põhitegevus on esteetilise kirurgia tooted. Mõlemad tegid reedesel järelturul korraliku plussi.
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Bank of America (BAC) expected to pay $3.3 bln for U.S. Trust, the private-banking arm of Charles Schwab (SCHW)
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Bloomberg.com reports Japanese stocks led declines in Asia on concern earnings and economic growth will miss analyst estimates. Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 2.3% while the broader Topix index lost 2.5%. It was their biggest declines since July 18.

Euroopas täna samad meelolud: European stocks fell for a second day on speculation a slowdown in economic and corporate profit growth will stymie a rally that sent indexes to the highest since January 2001.
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Susquehanna initiates Cedar Fair, L.P. (FUN 27.89), projecting significant revenue growth rates because of the impact of FUN's acquisition of Paramount Parks in June '06 and believe earnings will be negatively affected in the short run, due to reduced margins

Credit Suisse upgrades Microsoft (MSFT 29.40) to Outperform from Neutral and raises tgt to $35 from $29

JP Morgan upgrades Darden Restaurants (DRI 40.78) to Neutral from Underweight

Morgan Stanley upgrades St. Jude (STJ 35.88) to Overweight from Equal Weight. Call iseloomustab hästi ka meie mõttekäikusektoriga seotud Greatbatchi (GB) osas. As we position the portfolio for 2007, we are upgrading STJ from Equal-weight to Overweight. Year to date, the stock is down close to 30%, as concerns have been mounting regarding growth in the ICD market. We continue to believe that the ICD market is under-penetrated and stocking issues and lost sales from recalled replacement units have only exacerbated the negative growth trends seen this year. We think that it is only a matter of time before the ICD market rebounds. We target 7% U.S. growth in 2007 but acknowledge there is risk to the number. Even with that in mind, we think that investor sentiment remains fairly negative and any improvements in growth trends would re-ignite interest in CRM stocks.

Lehman initiates U.S Diagnostics Stocks with a Positive, Lehman initiates Digene (DIGE 49.67) and Gen-Probe (GPRO 49.40) with Overweights

Credit Suisse initates J Crew (JCG 33.20) with an Outperform and a $42 tgt saying in softlines retail, where visible growth is not always easy to find, J. Crew stands out as having one of the more attractive square-footage growth opportunities in the group. The firm says led by CEO Mickey Drexler, J. Crew has become an attractive turnaround story with operating margin expansion opportunity that we believe the market currently underappreciates.

HSBC in Europe resumes Business Objects (BOBJ 38.25) with a Neutral from Overweight saying competition is getting organised fast. The firm does not think that, at this point, the business intelligence industry is going to enter a consolidation.

HSBC in Europe upgrades Estee Lauder (EL 41.04) to Overweight from Neutral and raises their tgt to $47 from $41...

HSBC in Europe upgrades Procter and Gamble (PG 63.86) to Overweight from Neutral and raises their tgt to $73 from $67

U.S. Steel (X): Continues to trade at a 25-30% discount to sum-of-the-parts value of $95 - BofABanc of America believes a potential strategic alliance between Severstal and US Steel makes sense, given Severstal's global expansion ambitions. Strategically, they believe Severstal would like to increase its exposure to the US auto industry. In addition, firm thinks a potential alliance could generate raw material synergies in Europe with US Steel's operations in Serbia and Slovakia. They continue to believe US Steel benefits from industry consolidation. Firm says US Steel continues to trade at a 25-30% discount to their sum-of-the-parts value of $95. Ultimately, they believe a potential acquirer could sell pieces of the portfolio to help finance the deal.

Lowe's (LOW) reports Q3 (Oct) earnings of $0.46 per share, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.43; revenues rose 5.8% year/year to $11.21 bln vs the $11.5 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.36-0.38 vs. $0.41 consensus; sees Q4 rev down 4% yr/yr to roughly of $10.38 bln vs. $10.81 bln consensus. Co guides for FY07, sees EPS of $1.95-1.97 vs. $1.97 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $47.13 bln vs. $47.61 bln consensus.

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Sedapuhku on oodata äärmiselt vaest nädalat majandusstatistika poolt. Täna on oodata vaid juhtivate indikaatorite näitajat ning kolmapäeval esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arvu ning Michigani sentimendi lõplikku näitu. Neile lisanduvad juba tavapärased nafta varude raport kolmapäeval ja gaasi varude raport neljapäeval. Seega majandusandmed lähipäevil turu käitumist mõjutamas kuigivõrd ei ole ja saame näha, kuidas turg nende puudumisel liigub. Algus tundub igaljuhul negatiivne.

Ülespoole avanevad:

PD +30% (to be acquired by FCX; up in sympathy: CUP +11%, PCU +6.3%), CTRX +19% (to be acquired by Actelion), MNT +12% (FDA approves sales of silicone breast implants), PCYC +12% (announces clinical data on Xcytrin), CYBX +10% (audit committee concludes stock option review), UBET +9% (favorable arbitration results with TVG), OS +7.5% (to be acquired by Russian steelmaker), EOP +7.3% (to be acquired), ASCA +7% (CEO unexpectedly dies, announces mgmt succession), ACOR +6.5% (extends Friday's 10% move), SOMX +6.3% (insomnia drug shows positive results), CCE +6.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), SVI +6.3% (plans to list on Nasdaq), AGN +6.1% (FDA approves sales of silicone breast implants), EFUT +5% (stock remains volatile), SONS +2.8% (Piper upgrade), SSL +2.5%, SCHW +1.9% (to sell its US Trust unit), MT +1.7%, DD +1.6% (mentioned positively in Barron's), MRVL +1.6% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), Under $3: TRPS +26% (to sell its informatics business).

Allapoole avanevad:

PACT -22% (reports Q3), EHTH -7.5% (CIBC initiates at Underperform, $17 tgt), OTIV -6.4% (reports Q3 results), TM -3.6%, LMRA -3% (announces stock offering), UMBF -2.8%, HANS -2.8% (receives possible delisting notice from Nasdaq), FCX -2.1% (to acquire PD), Under $3: PLM -18%.
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Traders Give Thanks for Volatility This Week

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/20/2006 8:25 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

"The degree of a person's intelligence is directly reflected by the number of conflicting attitudes she can bring to bear on the same topic."

-- Lisa Alther

As we kick off a holiday-shortened week of trading, market players have an intriguing mix of considerations. What's particularly significant about this week is that there is very strong positive seasonality associated with the trading around Thanksgiving. In fact, the days before and after Thanksgiving have historically been positive more than 75% of the time -- a statistic that is dangerous to ignore. Throw in the fact that we have extremely strong upside momentum in place and a very high level of bullish sentiment and there seems to be little doubt that this market has no place to go but up.

But if you have been in the market for any length of time, you know this fact: when there seems to be no other possibility than a move in a certain direction, the market's tendency is to do the opposite of what is expected.

The very things that support continued market strength -- and the fact that they are so well known and anticipated -- is what makes them less likely to occur. One of the great certainties of the stock market is that the more widely anticipated something is, the more likely that it is priced in immediately. So if everyone is expecting the market to go up tomorrow they will buy today and that means there are less folks left to actually cause the move that was anticipated. The greater the level of expectations the more likely it will be priced in today and the less likely it will occur tomorrow.

This tendency creates an interesting problem for us this week.

Everyone knows about the positive seasonality associated with Thanksgiving. It is no mystery. It has occurred for many years and is widely anticipated, but it occurs nonetheless. To some degree it is probably a self-fulfilling prophecy -- people don't buy in anticipation as much as they try to trade on the couple days that it does occur. So it is not priced in to the same degree that other news might be.

However, the conditions this week are a bit different in that we have had such a strong uptrend and so many are frustrated about the lack of a pullback that they are now thinking that they shouldn't even bother thinking about weakness until sometime next week. After all, everyone knows Thanksgiving is strong so why look for weakness when this market has shown absolutely no sign of taking a rest? If anything, we should expect it to just keep on going.

Those who were looking for automatic strength this week are waking up to a bit of a surprise this morning. Although we have three big buyouts on the wires, overseas markets are down sharply on concerns about inflation. In Japan, exporters such as Toyota are being especially hard hit as worries about the U.S. economy take hold. That is a bit surprising given that the U.S. markets held up just fine on Friday.

The interesting thing about two of the big buyouts this morning is that they are in copper and steel. Strength in these basic industrial sectors is likely to raise concerns about the issue of inflation and that seems to be what is causing the problems this morning.

However, if you have been paying attention recently you know that this market has had a tendency to bounce back from weakness. Many folks who have refused to chase strength have been shut out and they are inclined to use weakness to put capital to work. The bears can't get a foothold and it is going to be very tough for them to do so during Thanksgiving week.

The merger in the copper sector has put some stocks, such as KGC, higher on my radar this morning. In addition, the acquisition of OS has me watching STLD and X for sympathy action. X in particular may be in play and a comment from Bank of America this morning that its valuation on a sum of parts basis is 95 may add some momentum.

The exchanges are apparently the new Internet stocks and I'm keeping my eye on a number of them in that group for some wild Thanksgiving action. ICE, BOT, IAAC and several others are likely to offer up some volatility for the aggressive trader.

It sure is going to be an interesting week so get yourself an extra cup of coffee and get ready for some action.
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Nasdaq ülevõtupakkumine LSE ostuks kukkus läbi.

Nasdaq, taking its second try to take over the LSE, offered to buy the more than 70 percent of the shares it doesn't already own in a deal which values the entire London bourse at $5.1 billion.
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Juba futuurid andsid signaali, et turg avaneb madalamalt, kuigi päevapeale võiksid tänased tugevad ühinemisteated siiski tugevust pakkuda. Jaanuari toornafta lepingud on samuti punases.
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Ja kuigi Phelps Dodge(PD) on seoses ülevõtmisega enam kui 28% plussis, pole teised sektori tegijad täna mitte just kuigi säravad olnud. PCU, CUP vastavalt 3 ja 6% plussis. Päevakangelane FCX ise miinusesse jõudnud
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Medtronic(MDT) järelturul ca 5% plussis. ICD müügitulud kasvasid 4% võrreldes eelmise aasta sama kvartaliga ning 14% võrreldes 1. kvartaliga. ICD müügitulud olid $764 miljonit(positiivne üllatus mitmetele turuosalistele) ning turuosa ulatub nüüd 56%-ni. Pacemakerite osas omatakse nüüd 50%-list turuosa.

Konverentsikõnel räägiti ICD turu võimalikust tugevuse taastumisest ning räägiti ka aktsiate tagasiostmise võimalustest:

'Expects U.S. ICD market to rebound with a chance to return to double digit growth rates in 2008'
'MDT says repurchase of shares is highly accretive and remains a good use of their cash; 'we will continue to be opportunistic in terms of repurchasing stock''

MDT prelim $0.59 vs $0.56 Reuters consensus; revs $3.08 bln vs $2.97 bln Reuters consensus