(UBS) UBS AG upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
Initial Claims 497K vs 475K consensus, prior revised to 496K from 493K
Kohe-kohe algab ECB intressimäära otsusejärgne pressikonverents. Kuulata saab siit.
enne 30 küll MOS-i ei näpiks. Enamus seal suures kasumis ja põgenevad, et kasumeid päästa.
Trichet sõnul oli täna kaks valikut: kas jätta intressid samaks või neid langetada. Täna siis valiti samaks jätmine, kuid euro saab selle peale pihta.
Madis: "Mosaic ei hakka homme pille kotti panema, millele praegune hinnatase justkui viitab."
Kui vaadata MOS-i ja POT-i graafikuid, siis kuni käesoleva hetkeni, s.t. pärast suurt tagasilangust on mõlemad aktsiad ca 300-400% kallimad kui 2006.a. alguses. Väidaks, et viimastel aastatel on aktsiad jõudsalt osalenud "big commodities rally-s".
Kui vaadata MOS-i ja POT-i graafikuid, siis kuni käesoleva hetkeni, s.t. pärast suurt tagasilangust on mõlemad aktsiad ca 300-400% kallimad kui 2006.a. alguses. Väidaks, et viimastel aastatel on aktsiad jõudsalt osalenud "big commodities rally-s".
Hmm, ja kui palju on kasumid sama ajaga kasvanud? Ning kas prognoosid, et need kukuvad lähiaastate jooksul 2006. aasta tasemele tagasi?
need kasumid ei koti ju hetkel kedagi ehk nagu te ise ütlete, vaatate ka sentimenti :)
Ei proovigi siin mingisugust investeerimisideed välja pakkuda, risk on -20% püüdmisel igal juhul suurem, kui enamikule sobib. Lihsalt üks highlight võimalikule ideele.
Investor Concerns Go Beyond the Bailout
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/2/2008 8:35 AM EDT
Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.
--Robert Louis Stevenson
The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passed a new version of a "bailout" bill last night, but the market reaction this morning is not very positive. The House is set to act on the bill on Friday, and while there are still some doubts they will pass it, this time the consensus seems to be that it's pretty much a done deal.
So why the negative reaction this morning? Shouldn't the market be celebrating the fact that the rescue is underway and maybe credit markets will become unstuck?
The problem is that there are so many other consequences popping up now. The horrible credit market is sending shock waves throughout the economy. There concerns that we are falling into a deep recession are so great, that the Wall Street Journal has a front-page article about how the Fed may cut interest rates again. Things have gotten so bad, that the fear of inflation is declining, and that gives the Fed a bit more flexibility when it comes to rate cuts.
Now that the third quarter has ended, earnings reports are going to start rolling in, and that will give us another look at some of the consequences of our problems. Many believe that estimates are too high and that guidance in many places is going to come down substantial.
Earnings last night from Mosaic (MOS) , which is in the formerly hot agriculture sector, show some of the danger out there. While the report wasn't bad, there were some problems with guidance and inventory levels, and the stock is down around $14 on the news. The earnings estimates in that group are still quite impressive, but the stocks have been decimated as expectations have fallen steadily.
The big problem we face right now is that even with this massive bailout program, market players are still extremely worried. There isn't much confidence that the plan is going to really help, and now we have to deal with an economy that seems to just be starting to understand all the consequences that we may suffer.
Technically, the picture isn't much better. We had a little more follow-through to Tuesday's bounce, but we are obviously seeing a "sell the news" reaction this morning to the Senate action, and you have to wonder if this is all that the bulls can muster as this "bailout" news is digested.
Unfortunately, the technical patterns invite selling and shorting into any bounce from here, and given how much investors have been punished lately, many will avail themselves of that course of action.
This is about as negative and gloomy as it gets, which is a positive because maybe we are becoming washed out, but I see little that entices me to jump in here and start buying.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BLUD +2.6%, UBS +2.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank)... Select financial related names showing strength following Senate bill and UBS guidance: NCC +14.9% (declares quarterly dividend of $0.01/share, unchanged from prior dividend), SLM +11.0%, ABK +10.3%, RF +10.1%, AIG +6.8% (prepares large asset sale - FT), SOV +6.0% (upgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), FRE +5.8%, ETFC +4.6%, STT +4.4%, PMI +4.1%, WB +3.4%... Other news: KBR +10.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CEG +9.5% (EDF looks to trump Buffett's bid for CEG - FT), RYAAY +8.2% (still checking), STP +1.5% (announces initiatives to expand share of U.S. solar market), BMY +1.5% (U.S. Food & Drug Administration approved the use of REYATAZ boosted with Ritonavir, combination therapy, for previously untreated HIV-1 infected adult patients)... Analyst comments: ASML +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MOS -20.0% (also downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), SMSC -13.5%, MAR -10.1%... Select fertilizer/ag names showing weakness following MOS results and analyst downgrades: POT -12.5%, IPI -10.6%, CF -10.3% and TRA -9.5% (all downgraded to Underperform at Merrill); AGU -8.9% (to buy-back 7.9 mln shares through a normal course issuer bid), SYT -8.4%, MON -6.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices and strength in dollar: BHP -5.6%, SLV -5.1%, AU -4.8%, MT -4.5%, RTP -4.4%, GFI -4.0%, HMY -4.0%, AUY -3.6%, NEM -3.3%, GOLD -2.6%, AEM -2.4%, GLD -1.9%... Other news: GE -4.1% (it was reported that stock sale may be offered at $22.25-$22.50, below than $24.50 closing price), WRI -3.8% (announces launch of 2.3 mln common share offering)... Analyst comments: CGV -8.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), LVS -7.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AKAM -7.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), WYNN -4.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), KLAC -3.2% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), EBAY -2.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AA -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), HBC -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), JNPR -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), HPQ -1.4% (downgraded to Add at Calyon),
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/2/2008 8:35 AM EDT
Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.
--Robert Louis Stevenson
The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passed a new version of a "bailout" bill last night, but the market reaction this morning is not very positive. The House is set to act on the bill on Friday, and while there are still some doubts they will pass it, this time the consensus seems to be that it's pretty much a done deal.
So why the negative reaction this morning? Shouldn't the market be celebrating the fact that the rescue is underway and maybe credit markets will become unstuck?
The problem is that there are so many other consequences popping up now. The horrible credit market is sending shock waves throughout the economy. There concerns that we are falling into a deep recession are so great, that the Wall Street Journal has a front-page article about how the Fed may cut interest rates again. Things have gotten so bad, that the fear of inflation is declining, and that gives the Fed a bit more flexibility when it comes to rate cuts.
Now that the third quarter has ended, earnings reports are going to start rolling in, and that will give us another look at some of the consequences of our problems. Many believe that estimates are too high and that guidance in many places is going to come down substantial.
Earnings last night from Mosaic (MOS) , which is in the formerly hot agriculture sector, show some of the danger out there. While the report wasn't bad, there were some problems with guidance and inventory levels, and the stock is down around $14 on the news. The earnings estimates in that group are still quite impressive, but the stocks have been decimated as expectations have fallen steadily.
The big problem we face right now is that even with this massive bailout program, market players are still extremely worried. There isn't much confidence that the plan is going to really help, and now we have to deal with an economy that seems to just be starting to understand all the consequences that we may suffer.
Technically, the picture isn't much better. We had a little more follow-through to Tuesday's bounce, but we are obviously seeing a "sell the news" reaction this morning to the Senate action, and you have to wonder if this is all that the bulls can muster as this "bailout" news is digested.
Unfortunately, the technical patterns invite selling and shorting into any bounce from here, and given how much investors have been punished lately, many will avail themselves of that course of action.
This is about as negative and gloomy as it gets, which is a positive because maybe we are becoming washed out, but I see little that entices me to jump in here and start buying.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BLUD +2.6%, UBS +2.2% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank)... Select financial related names showing strength following Senate bill and UBS guidance: NCC +14.9% (declares quarterly dividend of $0.01/share, unchanged from prior dividend), SLM +11.0%, ABK +10.3%, RF +10.1%, AIG +6.8% (prepares large asset sale - FT), SOV +6.0% (upgraded to Market Perform at Friedman Billings), FRE +5.8%, ETFC +4.6%, STT +4.4%, PMI +4.1%, WB +3.4%... Other news: KBR +10.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CEG +9.5% (EDF looks to trump Buffett's bid for CEG - FT), RYAAY +8.2% (still checking), STP +1.5% (announces initiatives to expand share of U.S. solar market), BMY +1.5% (U.S. Food & Drug Administration approved the use of REYATAZ boosted with Ritonavir, combination therapy, for previously untreated HIV-1 infected adult patients)... Analyst comments: ASML +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MOS -20.0% (also downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), SMSC -13.5%, MAR -10.1%... Select fertilizer/ag names showing weakness following MOS results and analyst downgrades: POT -12.5%, IPI -10.6%, CF -10.3% and TRA -9.5% (all downgraded to Underperform at Merrill); AGU -8.9% (to buy-back 7.9 mln shares through a normal course issuer bid), SYT -8.4%, MON -6.6%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness with lower spot prices and strength in dollar: BHP -5.6%, SLV -5.1%, AU -4.8%, MT -4.5%, RTP -4.4%, GFI -4.0%, HMY -4.0%, AUY -3.6%, NEM -3.3%, GOLD -2.6%, AEM -2.4%, GLD -1.9%... Other news: GE -4.1% (it was reported that stock sale may be offered at $22.25-$22.50, below than $24.50 closing price), WRI -3.8% (announces launch of 2.3 mln common share offering)... Analyst comments: CGV -8.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), LVS -7.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AKAM -7.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), WYNN -4.0% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), KLAC -3.2% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC), EBAY -2.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), AA -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman - DJ), HBC -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), JNPR -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), HPQ -1.4% (downgraded to Add at Calyon),
Ja veel tänaste indeksite liikumine ka siia:
Saksamaa DAX +0.10%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.45%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.78%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.96%
Venemaa MICEX -1.14%
Poola WIG -0.79%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.88%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.08%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.01%
Tai Set 50 +0.79%
India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)
See oli viga tegelikult, et esialgset avanemist ära ei oodanud, suured liikumised tavaliselt esimese veerandtunni jooksul võimenduvad.
proovime nii. GE long siit 22.35 juurest stop 22.10-22.20
ja kui ma oleks pikemaajalisem investor ostaks natuke MOSi siit
ja kui ma oleks pikemaajalisem investor ostaks natuke MOSi siit
nicht, GE.
August Factory Orders -4.0% vs -3.0% consensus, prior revised to +0.7% from +1.3%
Njah, MadisT, pole ka see NC mingi viimase instantsi tõde...
Madis, ära kindlasti võta minu 02/10/08 16:22 kommi kriitikana, see on lihtsalt konstruktiivne oponeerimine :) Tegelikult on väga tervitatav, et MOS võimaliku ideena foorumis välja on toodud. Igaüks saab siit ise edasi uurida. Rohkem selliseid ideid!
Avaldasin lihtsalt oma arvamuse, et MOS-i ja POT-i suur tõus on olnud tingitud samapalju commodity boom-ist kui kasumite kasvust (kasumite kasv on mõneti olnud commodity boom-i tagajärg). Ning küsimusele, et "kas prognoosid, et need (kasumid) kukuvad lähiaastate jooksul 2006. aasta tasemele tagasi?" julgeks vastata, et seda ei saa kindlasti mitte välistada.
Avaldasin lihtsalt oma arvamuse, et MOS-i ja POT-i suur tõus on olnud tingitud samapalju commodity boom-ist kui kasumite kasvust (kasumite kasv on mõneti olnud commodity boom-i tagajärg). Ning küsimusele, et "kas prognoosid, et need (kasumid) kukuvad lähiaastate jooksul 2006. aasta tasemele tagasi?" julgeks vastata, et seda ei saa kindlasti mitte välistada.
Põllukeemiatootjad pole ainukesed kes agraaris tugevalt pihta saavad. Sama toimub ka agrimasinate tootjatega (DE, AG, CNH). Vaatamata korralikele Q tulemustele. Keegi on agri (või (põllumajandus)toorained) korralikult "downgradenud"
dirtH,
Konkreetselt ühtegi suuremat downgrade'i CNH ja DE kohta ei tea. Tegu kahe ettevõttega, mida oleme viimastel nädalatel päris korralikult uurinud.
Konkreetselt ühtegi suuremat downgrade'i CNH ja DE kohta ei tea. Tegu kahe ettevõttega, mida oleme viimastel nädalatel päris korralikult uurinud.
Street, NC tuli oma kommentaariga välja hiljem ning Merrilli kohta öeldu sobis minu arvamusega väga hästi kokku. Või oled sa vastupidisel arvamusel, et praegune downgrade on adekvaatne? See, et aktsia edasi langes, Merrilli note'i paremaks küll ei tee. Risk oli kõrge ja realiseerus, kogu lugu. Turu tugevuse puhul oleks võinud ka vastupidi minna.
Ouna Ants, konstruktiivne kriitika on teretulnud. Selle jaoks me siin olemegi, et inimesed oma viha kodus välja ei elaks. :)
Ouna Ants, konstruktiivne kriitika on teretulnud. Selle jaoks me siin olemegi, et inimesed oma viha kodus välja ei elaks. :)