enek, Muidu, mis USA turu (taas)avamisse puutub, siis mina ei nimetaks seda kuulujutuks, vaid olen seda juba tükk aega vaadanud kui paratamatust, mis ühel hetkel teoks saab. Reguleerimisest saadav maksuraha vajab kogumist. See ei juhtu päeva pealt, kuid rangelt seaduste järgi ikkagi. Gigamedia (GIGM) ise on esmaseks sisenemisvõimaluseks USA turule näiteks reaalseks pidanud aasta kuni kolme pärast. Kui see nii ka läheb, siis on täna Gigamedia aktsia kolme aasta perspektiivis kahtlemata väga suurt kapitalikasvu potentsiaali pakkuv ettevõte ja veel igati mõistliku hinnaga.
Waiting for Answers By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 6/2/2008 9:36 AM EDT
That man is prudent who neither hopes nor fears anything from the uncertain events of the future.
--Anatole France
We kick off the month of June with the market at a particularly important juncture. In the next few weeks, we should answer the question whether the worst is really over for the market or whether we have just experienced a classic bear-market bounce.
There appears to be growing hope that despite the nonexistent economic growth and concerns over high oil and inflation, that the market might just might muddle through and continue to work higher. The bulls are feeling good about some renewed strength in the dollar and recent rotation into technology stocks.
The hope is that oil and commodity prices will continue to moderate, the dollar will strengthen and rotation into financials, retail and technology will drive the market higher. Economic weakness is actually being viewed as a positive, in that it will help keep inflation under control. In other words, it is a "Goldilocks' atmosphere, where the temperature is just right.
The bears dismiss this optimism as nothing more than a classic countertrend rally during a bear market. All bear markets have significant bounces before rolling over again as the depth of the negatives becomes clear. The pessimists say that the hope that the "worst is over" is exactly what we'd expect to see before another leg down.
Technically, the indices have made a big move off the March lows and are now struggling to overcome some overhead resistance. They have been turned back several times, but instead of rolling over and going straight down, they have found some underlying support and could make another run at recent highs if they can hold up for a while and draw in more bulls.
We have a very muddled environment right now with the bulls holding up well, but the bears getting ready to press should a few cracks appear. The very nasty rotational swings in key groups last week is a particularly good illustration of the underlying uncertainty out there. We have big swings in oil, steel, coal, agriculture, solar energy and a number of leading cyclical groups last week. Technology stocks began to emerge as new leaders, but financials struggled to hold on.
So now what? If the bears are going to get their teeth into the market, it is likely to happen in the next week or so, as seasonality turns negative and we deal with key overhead resistance in the indices. We should have some pockets of opportunity which will make it a good stock picker's market, but the swings in leading sectors present a lot of landmines for the overly aggressive momentum players.
This morning, problems in the financial sector in the UK are weighing on sentiment. Oil is seeing another pullback, as focus on speculative excess continues, but that isn't having much of an impact as investors look for positive catalysts. There isn't a lot of news out there at the moment, but the first day of a new month has a tendency to be positive, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the bulls perk up.
Buckle on the trading helmet and adjust your goggles. It is going to be tough slogging. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CNXT +19.6%, LGF +1.0%... Select biotech/pharma names showing strength with multiple ASCO presentations out: ACOR +20.6% (announces positive data from second Ph. 3 study for Fampridine-SR on walking ability in people with MS), IDMI +10.0% (announces Phase 2 follow-up data showing IDM-2101 is well tolerated with positive survival trend and announces data supporting improved overall survival advantage for Metastatic Osteosarcoma treated with Mifamurtide), AVAN +4.9%, PARD +3.0% (announces safety and efficacy results from a previously unpublished Phase 1 clinical trial of picoplatin and liposomal doxorubicin in patients with advanced solid tumors, including ovarian cancer), NVS +2.8% (reports findings from a Ph. 2 study show that RAD001 enhances tumor shrinkage when given in combination with letrozole tablets), NKTR +2.5% (new "positive" data announced for NKTR-102 highlights promise of its small molecule PEG-oncolytics), DNA +2.3% (Second Ph. 3 study of Avastin plus chemotherapy shows improved progression-free survival in women with advanced HER2-negative breast cancer)... Other news: CPST +6.6% (announces first order for new C1000; value order value exceeded $2 mln), EXTR +4.6% (announces "victory" in patent litigation), GM +4.4% (mentioned positively in Barron's), ABMD +4.2% (Receives 510k clearance from FDA for Impella 2.5 Device), CSIQ +4.1% (signs $500 million supply agreement with Neo Solar Power), HOV +3.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MSPD +3.7% (announces 1-for-5 reverse stock split), SNE +3.2% (showed strength in overseas trading following tier 1 upgrade on Friday)... Analyst upgrades: MEE +2.9% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR), SOV +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), ARCC +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), YGE +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), SNTA +1.6% (initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna Financial), ORCC +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), TSO +1.3% (upgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), ANR +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley).
Allapoole avanevad;
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AGYS -13.8%... Select European financial names showing weakness: RBS -6.7% and BCS -4.5% (Royal Bank Of Scotland, Barclays raided by UK OFT, according to TV - DJ), UBS -2.2%, ING -1.9%... Select European drug stocks trading lower: SHPGY -5.5%, GSK -1.8%, AZN -1.7%... Other news: HRS -12.2% (issues statement that it isn't pursuing a merger or sale of co), SOL -9.6% (files for a 9 mln share ADS secondary offering; 8.14 mln ADS are being offered by the co and 860K ADS are being offered by selling shareholders; also downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), IMCL -7.4% (ERBITUX data demonstrate improved overall survival in first-line treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer), MAR -5.0% (sees North American RevPAR growth of approximately 2%, compared to prior company guidance of 3-5%), ASML -2.6% (still checking), MT -1.5% (still checking), VOD -1.5% (Telkom SA in Talks With Vodafone, Mvelaphanda - Bloomberg.com), NOK -1.4% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: UIS -5.1% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), BPFH -3.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), LDK -3.1% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), IFX -3.1% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), PMCS -2.5% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), LEH -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), IDTI -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), LSI -1.4% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), MPG -1.3% (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill).
Solarid võivad olla oma jooksu lõpus vähemalt lühajaliselt. AMAT pakub võimalust thin-film tehast püsti panna 50 milli USD eest ja see tähendab, et FSLR jne võivad omadega varsti commodity turul olla.
Ühesõnaga FSLR võib short olla.
Hetkel grabbing long HRS here. -15% on liiga palju selle uudise peale. HRS on nagunii takeover kandidaat. (HRS avrg 55.78)
Harrise (HRS) puhul on asi selles, et tegemist on technical sellinguga, kuna ilmselt päris mitmed kavalpead panustasid takeoveri peale ja peavad nüüd oma positsioonid ära müüma.
Asi on nüüd 16% all ja kurat küll, see tundub liiga paljuna. Ma olin juba 57 juures nõus seda ostma (eelturul). mis ma peaks siis 55 juures rõõmust ruigama, et seda osta saan?
Kaks asja:
- Technical selling
- HRS on ikka üks seksikamaid defense asju, mis varem või hiljem ikka ära ostetakse. Mulle jäi mulje, et tegelikult on mingid läbirääkimised ikkagi käinud aga HRS tüübid on lihtsalt liig ülbed olnud, et mingi norm hinna eest ennast ära müüa. Ehk siis näevad lähiajal head potentsiaali sektoris.
Võibolla kõvatavad niisama oma pressikatega ja tuleb hostile takeover.
55.61 keskmine siin, olen vahepeal juurde tõmmanud.
rääkides söest. Ostsin veebruari keskel sellist stokki agu WTN.TO kusagilt 2,8-2,9 juurest. Met Coal ja mis need võlusõnad olidki. Aktsia püsis nii kuu aega allpool ja kui ta lõpuks üles liikus, müüsin maha umbes 5% kasumiga. Täna on aktsia nii 8,5 juures...
ma arvan et FSLR on igal juhul short lisaks AMAT'le on veel araablased lubanud oma suure rahakotiga tehase püsti panna + teised tootjad nagu SOLF (ja oli vist veel mõni) kes selles suunas samme seavad lisame siia insiderite müügid ja tänase note'i, et euroopa liit võib FSLR mürgised komponendid bännida
tänast valuatsiooni ta küll ei tohiks enam väärt olla
(selgitus siin) Individual Ratings are assigned only to banks. These ratings, which are internationally comparable, attempt to assess how a bank would be viewed if it were entirely independent and could not rely on external support. These ratings are designed to assess a bank's exposure to, appetite for, and management of risk, and thus represent our view on the likelihood that it would run into significant difficulties such that it would require support.
(selgitus siin= The Purpose and Function of Support Ratings Support ratings offer Fitch's judgement of a potential supporter's (either a sovereign state's or an institutional owner's) propensity to support a bank and of its ability to support it. Its ability to support is set by the potential supporter's own Fitch Long-term debt rating, both in foreign currency and, where appropriate, in local currency. Support ratings have a direct link to Long-term debt ratings, but they do not, nevertheless, assess the intrinsic credit quality of a bank. Rather they communicate Fitch Ratings' judgement on whether the bank would receive support should this become necessary. It is emphasised that these ratings are exclusively the expression of Fitch's opinion even though the principles underlying them may have been discussed with the relevant supervisory authorities and/or owners.
Analüütikud on pankade suhtes nii negatiivsed olnud viimasel ajal, et neid ei liigutaks isegi halvad tulemused enam, rääkimata SP downgradest AA-/A-1+ peale. Täiesti tavaline on olnud kui mingi suure maja analüütik tõmbab näiteks Lehmani EPS-i 80% allapoole konsensust. Alguses kukkusid, pärast enam mitte.