Börsipäev 19. oktoober

Investeerimine
1

Rev Shark:

"It is great to be a blonde. With low expectations it's very easy to surprise people."

-- Pamela Anderson

We enter the bulk of earnings season with fairly low expectations. After Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) not many folks were expecting great reports particularly in the technology sector. Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) gave slightly disappointing sales guidance but investors were apparently satisfied nonetheless and bid the stock up. IBM (IBM:NYSE) was even more upbeat and expressed confidence about 2005. The stock is trading up about $2.50 on the news. Throw in a further decline in crude oil prices to around the $53 level and the bulls are sitting pretty to start the day.

The bears can still find plenty of things to worry about like the weak semiconductor book-to-bill report but with low expectations for earnings and falling oil prices the bulls are in a buying mood and it won't pay to stand in their way.

The Nasdaq has a very interesting technical hurdle nearby that is going to come into play soon. The downtrend line that connects the tops back to January and the 200 day moving average are looming at 1965 to 1970. Even if the bulls are unable to break through that point today they will be in good position to finally turn the trend upward as we enter the seasonally strong period in November and December.

I mentioned last week that the market looked like it was undergoing a change in character. The strong earnings reports and falling oil help confirm that thesis. We are seeing money move out of the defensive oil, mining and steel stocks into technology. That is the sort of leadership that warms the hearts of the bulls. We'll see now if they can run with it.

We have a flood of earnings reports to contend with over the next 10 days or so, which means we are likely to find some good trading opportunities regardless of what the major indices may do.

We have CPI due out in a moment and that may cause a flutter or two. Overseas markets were solid because of the good reports from Texas Instruments and IBM. I'm not sure the initial euphoria will hold but I expect buyers to be interested in putting money to work on a dip.

2

G. B. Smith:

3
Gapping Up

TXN +6% (reports Q3; surprises by actually meeting expectations), MTSX +45% (announces Lockheed Martin pact), MOND +30% (receives bid from STZ), DCGN +17% (positive results from Phase IIa clinical trial), GNTX +10% (to report Q3).... Higher on strong earnings/guidance: JAKK +8.3%, TASR +7.1% (see Briefing.com report on potential short squeeze candidates), AMTD +6.9%, PH +6.5%, ET +5.2%, RSH +4.5%.... Other News: ADSX +6.7%, ISON +5.7% (continued momentum from last few days), IPAS +5.1% (Defense Dept purchase order), OPWV +5%, BEAS +4.2% (Merrill raises target to $9.50), RFMD +3.9% (CE Unterberg upgrade), VRTS +3.5% (in sympathy with EMC report), BRCM +2.9% (sympathy with TXN; also becomes mkt share leader in Gigabit Ethernet NIC & LOM controller shipments), RTRSY +7.9% (reports strong qtrly sales),,... Under $3: GEMS +11% (co and Microtest partner to deliver messaging solutions to Russian carriers), AATK +10%, AVNX +6.3%, VWPT +4.6%.

Gapping Down

LF -34% (lowers Q3 and Y04 guidance; 3 downgrades), INTT -17% (guides Q3 below consensus), NTPAE -17% (announces Nasdaq delisting), GNTA -9.5%, CGNX -5.6% (beats by a penny; guides Q4 below consensus), TOPT -3.9% (stock offering), ODSY -3.2% (carryover from 47% drop yesterday), LNCR -2.3% (reports in-line, revs light), JCOM -1.8% (reports Q3).

4

Eile peale turgu avaldasid tulemused 2 tehnoloogiasektori hiiglast ja ühtlasi ka Dow Jonesi komponenti. Mõlemad on täna ka eelturul üleval.

Texas Instruments (TXN) +5,74%

IBM (IBM) +2,71%

Lisaks neile mõjub turgudele kindlasti positiivselt ka naftahinna alanemine, see on nüüd liikunud juba allapoole 53 USD taset.

Enne turgu laekunud tulemused on valdavalt ootusi ületanud, mõned olulisemad

Ameritrade (AMTD) +7,36%

Altria (MO) +1,27%

Taser (TASR) +6,36%

5
Spitzer ründab jälle. Seekord siis health insurance business: UNH, WLP, AET, ATH, CVH, HUM ja WC punases.

Paneb imestama kuidas ülejäänud turg sellele vastu peab. Kui kauaks tugevust jätkub?
Not good, not good at all.

sB
6
Me olime just mõnda aega tagasi AETis lühikesed, see aktsia liikus sentides, harva punktides. Täna miinus 10 punkti. Karm.
7
10:46 Market rumor that Spitzer will go after the derivatives market... seeing some stocks with high exposure tick down sharply on rumor


JPM, AIG