Kes Berliini või Londoni poole teele ..siis jätkem olulised fraasid inglise ja saksa keeles ka meelde!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op-BfuGTSzI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWK5B2pnbNY
Du
Du hast
Du hast den Schönster Arsch der Welt!!!
Du hast
Du hast den Schönster Arsch der Welt!!!
Kas kellegil on access sellele keskkonnale: Market News International
Väidetavalt: " Citing "well-placed central banking sources," Market News International said the ECB was not excluding another interest rate rise to combat inflation, despite the region's slowing economic growth. "
Tagajärg: "Euribor rate futures fell more than 10 ticks across the 2009 strip on Friday, pushing implied yields sharply higher after a media report said the European Central Bank may raise rates again this year. "
Äkki keegi saaks pasteda uudise.
The Irish Times´is oluline intervjuu Trichet´ga: '...our primary goal is to maintain price stability'
Väidetavalt: " Citing "well-placed central banking sources," Market News International said the ECB was not excluding another interest rate rise to combat inflation, despite the region's slowing economic growth. "
Tagajärg: "Euribor rate futures fell more than 10 ticks across the 2009 strip on Friday, pushing implied yields sharply higher after a media report said the European Central Bank may raise rates again this year. "
Äkki keegi saaks pasteda uudise.
The Irish Times´is oluline intervjuu Trichet´ga: '...our primary goal is to maintain price stability'
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0718/1216330999711.html
See ei ole oluline punkt: "However, Mr Trichet refused to be drawn on the future of ECB interest rates. The ECB is "never pre-committed" to interest rate changes, he said, adding "we will do in the future whatever is appropriate to deliver price stability in the medium term"."
Tavaline retoorika.
Tavaline retoorika.
Sain infot muust allikast. Keegi võiks ikkagi originaali saata (kellaajaga).
European Central Bank policymakers have played down the prospect of a cycle of interest rate increases to avoid pushing the euro higher against the dollar, news agency Market News reported on Friday. (1)
"A $1.60 parity is not desirable for the ECB, but I don't see we have a choice," the news agency quoted what it called "a senior Eurosystem official" as saying. (2)
"We discussed how we would send our message and communicate to the markets our decision without giving the impression that a new cycle of rate hikes had begun," the source said. (3)
"We discussed it and decided on the wording of the communique to avoid further strengthening of the euro. The main reason we implied we are not beginning a series of rate hikes was to maintain forex stability." (4)
Market News's sources also stated that the ECB was primarily focused on inflation, and were more explicit about the possibility of rate rises than Governing Council members have been in public. (5)
"We certainly do not precommit on rate policy, but it does not mean a further tightening of monetary policy should be excluded," said a senior Eurosystem official. "Of course we are open to all options, but there is no information based on which we could discuss a rate cut." (6)
Another source made a similar point. "Based on the fact that oil prices have been rising in an unusual manner, one can think that inflation trends will be higher than expected," he said. "Therefore, if this scenario is confirmed, I think further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate." Market News said it spoke to the sources some days ago, before a recent fall in oil prices and partial weakening in the euro, which hit a record high earlier this week. (7)
1. EUR on niigi ülehinnatud. Eelmise intressiistungijärgse pressika tooni (oli väga dovish) valimise algülesandeks oli tampida EURi mitte anda ülevaade otsuse põhjustest (milleks oli mure inflatsiooni, teise ringi efektide ja unit production/labour cost tõusu üle), sest see oleks tähendanud pigem hawkish tooni jätkumist ehk +200 pipsi (potentsiaaliga +1000 ehk) swingi üles.
2. ECB selgelt rahulolematu 1.6000 üle. Otseselt mitte uus asjaolu.
3. Selge vihje tagatubades toimunud strateegiaaruteludele. Ma lasin ennast härida Paulsoni visiidist ja arvasin, et see tingis dovish´ma retoorika, sest tundus, et FED tõesti soovis USD tugevnemist ja ECB "aitas natuke kaasa" retoorika reaktsioonilisust maha keerates. Rumal oletus. ECB on piisavalt iseseisev ja nad hoopis kasutasid USA nihet enda huvides :)
4. Otsene viide sellele, et EUR tampimine oli hetkel olulisem.
5. Otsene viide sellele, et infla tampimise strateegia on ikkagi peateema hetkel (seda lihtsalt ei saanud välja näidata).
6. Uus asjaolu süsteemis. Trigger. Terav vastuolu eelmise intressiotsusejärgse pressikovenrentsi "On the basis of our current assessment, the monetary policy stance following today’s decision will contribute to achieving our objective."-ga. Lisaks kinnitus, et ei ole ilmnenud asjaolusid mis lubaks inflatampimise strateegiat hüljata.
7. Küll vihje nafta hinna tõusule ja commodity mõjule inflatsioonile, kuid see ei ole IMO peamine põhjus. Eelpool lingitud intervjuus tuuakse uuesti välja Unit labour costs ja Unit production costs teema: "Unit labour costs are an important indicator of future inflation, because they are a major cost in the euro area economy. In recent years, we have had an increase rate in unit labour costs of 1.0 per cent in 2005; 0.9 per cent in 2006; 1.5 per cent in 2007; and 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of the present year.
When you try to disentangle the factors behind this development, about half of the increase is attributable to increases in wages and salaries and the other half is due to a reduction of labour productivity. The overall result is that we have observed in the last two years a significant rise of unit labour costs.
The recent rise in unit labour costs is an indication that we have to take them into account. So there are risks that we had to counter. I wouldn't say at all that second-round effects are a generalised phenomenon at present but we see signs that we have to take seriously. From that standpoint I am concerned about the schemes in which nominal wages are indexed to consumer prices. They involve the risk of a wage-price spiral - very detrimental to employment."
Seega: ECB on tegelikult ikka veel tõstmas, ajastus veel ebatäpne. Intressitundlikud, olge valmis ootamatuks! Fikseerige oma kohustusi.
European Central Bank policymakers have played down the prospect of a cycle of interest rate increases to avoid pushing the euro higher against the dollar, news agency Market News reported on Friday. (1)
"A $1.60 parity is not desirable for the ECB, but I don't see we have a choice," the news agency quoted what it called "a senior Eurosystem official" as saying. (2)
"We discussed how we would send our message and communicate to the markets our decision without giving the impression that a new cycle of rate hikes had begun," the source said. (3)
"We discussed it and decided on the wording of the communique to avoid further strengthening of the euro. The main reason we implied we are not beginning a series of rate hikes was to maintain forex stability." (4)
Market News's sources also stated that the ECB was primarily focused on inflation, and were more explicit about the possibility of rate rises than Governing Council members have been in public. (5)
"We certainly do not precommit on rate policy, but it does not mean a further tightening of monetary policy should be excluded," said a senior Eurosystem official. "Of course we are open to all options, but there is no information based on which we could discuss a rate cut." (6)
Another source made a similar point. "Based on the fact that oil prices have been rising in an unusual manner, one can think that inflation trends will be higher than expected," he said. "Therefore, if this scenario is confirmed, I think further tightening of monetary policy would be appropriate." Market News said it spoke to the sources some days ago, before a recent fall in oil prices and partial weakening in the euro, which hit a record high earlier this week. (7)
1. EUR on niigi ülehinnatud. Eelmise intressiistungijärgse pressika tooni (oli väga dovish) valimise algülesandeks oli tampida EURi mitte anda ülevaade otsuse põhjustest (milleks oli mure inflatsiooni, teise ringi efektide ja unit production/labour cost tõusu üle), sest see oleks tähendanud pigem hawkish tooni jätkumist ehk +200 pipsi (potentsiaaliga +1000 ehk) swingi üles.
2. ECB selgelt rahulolematu 1.6000 üle. Otseselt mitte uus asjaolu.
3. Selge vihje tagatubades toimunud strateegiaaruteludele. Ma lasin ennast härida Paulsoni visiidist ja arvasin, et see tingis dovish´ma retoorika, sest tundus, et FED tõesti soovis USD tugevnemist ja ECB "aitas natuke kaasa" retoorika reaktsioonilisust maha keerates. Rumal oletus. ECB on piisavalt iseseisev ja nad hoopis kasutasid USA nihet enda huvides :)
4. Otsene viide sellele, et EUR tampimine oli hetkel olulisem.
5. Otsene viide sellele, et infla tampimise strateegia on ikkagi peateema hetkel (seda lihtsalt ei saanud välja näidata).
6. Uus asjaolu süsteemis. Trigger. Terav vastuolu eelmise intressiotsusejärgse pressikovenrentsi "On the basis of our current assessment, the monetary policy stance following today’s decision will contribute to achieving our objective."-ga. Lisaks kinnitus, et ei ole ilmnenud asjaolusid mis lubaks inflatampimise strateegiat hüljata.
7. Küll vihje nafta hinna tõusule ja commodity mõjule inflatsioonile, kuid see ei ole IMO peamine põhjus. Eelpool lingitud intervjuus tuuakse uuesti välja Unit labour costs ja Unit production costs teema: "Unit labour costs are an important indicator of future inflation, because they are a major cost in the euro area economy. In recent years, we have had an increase rate in unit labour costs of 1.0 per cent in 2005; 0.9 per cent in 2006; 1.5 per cent in 2007; and 2.4 per cent in the first quarter of the present year.
When you try to disentangle the factors behind this development, about half of the increase is attributable to increases in wages and salaries and the other half is due to a reduction of labour productivity. The overall result is that we have observed in the last two years a significant rise of unit labour costs.
The recent rise in unit labour costs is an indication that we have to take them into account. So there are risks that we had to counter. I wouldn't say at all that second-round effects are a generalised phenomenon at present but we see signs that we have to take seriously. From that standpoint I am concerned about the schemes in which nominal wages are indexed to consumer prices. They involve the risk of a wage-price spiral - very detrimental to employment."
Seega: ECB on tegelikult ikka veel tõstmas, ajastus veel ebatäpne. Intressitundlikud, olge valmis ootamatuks! Fikseerige oma kohustusi.
Kas ECB ja FED -i käitumismotiivide ja probleemid algpõhjused pole mitte selles, et euroopas mängivad põhirolli pangad ja börs on teisejärguline, millest väga palju ei olene, usas on vastupidi, kogu majandus keerleb börside ümber.