A Gap Up Is on the Way
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/17/2011 8:29 AM EDT
"Rescue someone unwilling to look after himself, and he will cling to you like a dangerous illness."
--Mason Cooley
After very choppy Thursday action, the market is poised to gap up this morning on what must be at least the 28th plan to bail out Greece. The market has been very sensitive to the news flow out of Europe lately, and it is causing some very chaotic action as we dance around each new headline.
Yesterday, it looked like some of our recent worries had been set aside as a rally followed good housing news, mediocre weekly unemployment numbers and a poor Philly Fed report. The good feelings didn't last too long as a selloff in the early afternoon preceded a strong rebound into the close. Overall, it was a slightly positive day, with a decent close. But uncertainty in Europe kept many market players on the sidelines. Also, there was unusually poor action in big-cap technology names, which was rather worrisome.
Germany is once again open to working with the European Central Bank in a bailout for Greece and easing up on some of its previous demands. You really have to wonder if this is just another delay of the inevitable default, but it is enough to bring a sigh of relief and some buyers.
The market has been in a clear downtrend since May 1 and is likely to continue its streak of weekly losses unless it puts together a very big day today. Despite steady selling pressure there is increasing impatience to call a bottom. Yesterday morning, the bulls were almost giddy when we had some green on the screens early in the day. Given how dreary the action has been, it isn't surprising that there is some celebration when there's a bounce, but the big danger is that it will be prematurely embraced as a market bottom.
If you are a trend follower or momentum trader you must recognize and accept the fact that you are not going to be fully invested when the ultimate low of a downtrend finally hits. It is the price you pay for avoiding losses during a downtrend. If you stand aside when things are weak and respect the price action, then you simply aren't going to be holding many positions when things turn.
Inevitably, when the market eventually turns after a long downtrend, there are very few attractive charts. Initially, there will be a bunch of broken and downtrending stocks with an oversold bounce or two. For momentum traders, that is not a very attractive pattern to buy.
One way to combat the problem of holding very few long positions when the market is trying to bounce is to trade in the very short term. Charts that might not be attractive in the long term may be good trading vehicles in the very short term, but the key is to be very clear about what you are trying to accomplish.
While I see absolutely no reason to believe that the recent downtrend is over, I do see opportunities to play some short-term bounces. Unlike others who look to buy because they are calling a market bottom, I'll look to buy simply because I'll see some chances for some quick flips.
If the market does stabilize and show signs of turning back up, I'll be happy to rebuild some long-term positions. Too many bulls become too excited too quickly when we have any sort of bounce in a downtrend. Go ahead and play those bounces, but don't drink the bull's Kool-Aid too quickly.
We have a decent sized gap-up open on the way, but the test will be to see what the buyers do on pullbacks and into the close. It's option expiration day, which adds an element of randomness, so be careful.
IMF kärpis täna USA 2011.a STK kasvu kahe kuu taguselt 2,8%lt 2,5% peale ning ootab järgmiseks aastaks 2,9% asemel 2,7%list kasvu. Lisaks hoiatatakse uue kriisi eest:
"You cannot afford to have a world economy where these important decisions are postponed because you're really playing with fire," said Jose Vinals, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department.
"We have now entered very clearly into a new phase of the (global) crisis, which is, I would say, the political phase of the crisis," he said in an interview in Sao Paulo, where the forecast was published.
Artikkel ise on siin
"You cannot afford to have a world economy where these important decisions are postponed because you're really playing with fire," said Jose Vinals, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets department.
"We have now entered very clearly into a new phase of the (global) crisis, which is, I would say, the political phase of the crisis," he said in an interview in Sao Paulo, where the forecast was published.
Artikkel ise on siin
Hetkel käimas ka IMF-i pressikonverents. Link
Mikk Taras
Ei midagi uut, aga FT Alphaville toob esile Barclays Capitali tabeli, kus on kõik suuremad Kreeka võlausaldajad välja toodud - link tabelile siin.
Kuna kõik suuremad Kreeka võlausaldajad on kas Kreeka enda avaliku ja erasektori esindajad ning rahvusvahelised institutsioonid, siis ma ei saa hästi aru kuidas Kreeka default selle paljukardetud doominoefekti esile kutsub. Kreeka deafult tähendab, et pankrotistub Kreeka valitsus ja sellele laenu andnud Kreeka pangad, ning Euroopa Liit ja IMF kannavad väikse osa oma varadest lihtsalt maha. Võibolla side effectina läheb allavoolu ka mõni Prantsuse või Beneluxi finantsinstitutsioon, mis on aga kõik liiga väikesed et globaalset tasakaalu kõigutada. Nii et minu bet oleks, et isegi kui Kreeka defauldib siis peale psüholoogilise lühajalise efekti me mingeid globaalseid mullistusi selle tulemusel ei koge.
June Michigan Sentiment 71.8 vs 73.5 Briefing.com consensus; May 74.3
May Leading Indicators +0.8% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; April -0.3%
FT Alphaville on teinud veel ühe postituse Barclays Capital poolt koostatud raportist. Märtis saatis SEC (finantsinspektsioon) kirja mitmele USA regionaalpangale – muret tekitasid meetodid, kuidas raporteerivad pangad laene, mille laenutingimusi on muudetud (inglise k. „troubled debt restructuring“ või „TDR“ ehk tingimuste muutmine maksmata jätmise vältimiseks). Sisuliselt on tegemist nii-öelda auguga USA regulatsioonides – laenutingimusi muutes ei peeta osa TDR-i läbinud laene tähtaega ületanud laenudeks. Mais kirjutas Fitch Ratings, et 2010. aastal kasvas TDR-ide maht aastaga 48% ehk $106 miljardile. Raportis on ka ära toodud, et möödunud aastal kasvas kommertskinnisvara TDR-ide maht 85%. Aprillis teatas USA accounting board, et regulatsioone karmistatakse, mis peaks tõstma probleemsete laenude osakaalu pankade bilansis.
Alloleva tabeli on koostanud Barclays Capital, mis annab hea ülevaate sellest, kui suures mahus pangad bilansilehti 100% seaduslikult „korrastavad“.
Alloleva tabeli on koostanud Barclays Capital, mis annab hea ülevaate sellest, kui suures mahus pangad bilansilehti 100% seaduslikult „korrastavad“.
mykoloogMikk Taras
Ei midagi uut, aga FT Alphaville toob esile Barclays Capitali tabeli, kus on kõik suuremad Kreeka võlausaldajad välja toodud - link tabelile siin.
Kuna kõik suuremad Kreeka võlausaldajad on kas Kreeka enda avaliku ja erasektori esindajad ning rahvusvahelised institutsioonid, siis ma ei saa hästi aru kuidas Kreeka default selle paljukardetud doominoefekti esile kutsub. Kreeka deafult tähendab, et pankrotistub Kreeka valitsus ja sellele laenu andnud Kreeka pangad, ning Euroopa Liit ja IMF kannavad väikse osa oma varadest lihtsalt maha. Võibolla side effectina läheb allavoolu ka mõni Prantsuse või Beneluxi finantsinstitutsioon, mis on aga kõik liiga väikesed et globaalset tasakaalu kõigutada. Nii et minu bet oleks, et isegi kui Kreeka defauldib siis peale psüholoogilise lühajalise efekti me mingeid globaalseid mullistusi selle tulemusel ei koge.
Eks ainult Kreeka valitsuse võla default peaks tõesti olema väljaspool Kreekat allaneelatav. Aga siin on ikkagi veel mitu ahelreaktsiooni võimalust. Esiteks läheks Kreeka defaultiga vee alla ka Kreeka pangandussektor, millega on omakorda seotud ülejäänud Euroopa pangad. Teiseks ei ole ikkagi teiste PIGS riikide olukord sugugi palju parem, reitinguagentuuride mudelites riskid suurenevad, usaldus võib kaududa, võla downgrade’id teevad investorid närvilisemaks ja asi võib ka seal defaultiga lõppeda . Võib-olla seda kõike ei juhtu, aga sellega kaasnev risk näib praegu olevate liiga suur, et seda proovida.
Noh, samas on näidispoomisel ka oma hoiatav efekt teiste jaoks. Mina kaldun viimasel ajal pigem sinnapoole, et parem on lasta Kreeka põhja ja saata sellega turgudele signaal, et aidatakse ainult neid, kes ise tõesti soovivad abi ja selle saamiseks ka oma lubadusi peavad. Parem õudne lõpp kui lõputu õudus. Usun, et peale esimest lühiajalist shokki oleks selline lahendus keskpikas perspektiivis maailma majanduse tervisele oluliselt parem lahendus kui praegune komatoosse patsiendi reanimeerimise jätkamine, s.h. kreeklastele endile. Poliitikutelt millegi sellisega väljatulemiseks mune on muidugi palju loota. Pigem on hetkel lootus EKP ja saksa rahva peal, kuna kantsler Merkel on teadupärast poliitik, kes võib oma seisukohti 24 tunni jooksul 180 kraadi muuta, kui valija seda nõuab.
The Fed purchased $1.93 bln of 2013-2041 TIPS through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $9.15 bln
TSLA akstia tegi järsu hüppe ülespoole, kuna on kuuldused, et Roadsterite müük läheb üle ootuste hästi.
Tesla $TSLA Shares on the Move as Source Says Roadsters Almost Sold Out
Tesla $TSLA Shares on the Move as Source Says Roadsters Almost Sold Out
First Solar (FSLR): Hearing stock is being upgraded intraday at a boutique firm
Kas tegu sellega:
First Solar upgraded to Hold from Sell at Wunderlich
Target $118
First Solar upgraded to Hold from Sell at Wunderlich
Target $118
Täna turuosaliste turmtule all oleva RIMM-i aktsia kohta on oma väikese analüüsi Street Insider, et kui võtta arvesse kõiki võimalikke stsenaariumeid, siis $ 22 võiks olla RIMM-i puhul tase, kust võiks aktsiat osta. Täpsemalt selle hinnatasemeni viinud analüüsi saab lugeda siit.