Karumõmm ... kehv headline lugejate jaoks, millest ka turu esmane reaktsioon :)
NY State indeks on küsitlus ja volatiilsetel aegadel ei ole need enamasti parim indikaator, emotsioonid möllavad ka vastajate hulgas, jaemüük on ka kindlasti väga emotsionaalne number, lisaks rahakoti sisu kuivamisele paneb täna ka hirm isegi ameeriklase vähem tarbima
President Bush discusses govt financial plans; notes govt will be a passive investor in private companies
riik pankades, riik kinnisvaras, riik private equitys?
riik pankades, riik kinnisvaras, riik private equitys?
Riik pankrotis?
: ) Hea, Tarantel
Saksamaa DAX -3.59%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -3.47%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -4.16%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.30%
Venemaa MICEX -8.68%
Poola WIG -4.72%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.06%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.96%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.12%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.68%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.52%
Tai Set 50 -4.79%
India Sensex 30 -5.87%
Earnings and Economic News Come to the Fore
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/15/2008 7:45 AM EDT
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous and conflicting information.
-- Winston Churchill
Now that the big bank rescue plan is under way, many market players are relieved that a dramatic collapse of our financial system has been averted. That, along with very oversold technical conditions, is what produced the record-setting bounce on Monday.
However, it would be foolish to assume that it is clear sailing from here. We still have many issues to grapple with, such as whether this big bailout plan really will work as hoped. Although there has been some thawing, the credit markets are still highly dysfunctional, and that needs to change before the stock market will benefit much.
Even if the bank bailout does help the credit markets, we still have major economic issues. We're going to see a lot of negative fallout from this credit crisis, and the key for the stock market is whether it has been priced in or not.
The only disagreement among economists about a recession is how long and deep it will be. Already there are predictions that unemployment will spike to more than 7.5% and earnings estimates are seen as 30% or more too high.
While those things sound quite dire, they need not kill the market if they are anticipated and already discounted. That is why this earnings season is going to be very important. We are going to see how much bad news this market is already expecting.
The big report from Intel (INTC) is so far receiving a favorable reception, and we also have Genentech (DNA) , Abbott (ABT) and JPMorgan (JPM) trading up on their reports. That is a start, but the big question is whether sustained buying will kick in.
Between economic reports and earnings, this market has some major hurdles to jump if it is going to start to trend upward, but what will really tell us the story is the technical action in the indices.
What we have technically right now is a massive downtrend and crash followed by a big, one-day, oversold bounce. While that has the potential of creating a low, we haven't seen anything yet to give us assurance that an uptrend is about to begin. The market will need to go through a series of pullbacks and rallies that create a trading range that holds before we can feel more comfortable about the possibility of upside.
Right now we are at the important stage of trading where we are trying to determine if our big bounce is going to be eroded by nervousness and profit-taking. Will there be bargain-hunters to provide some underlying support, or will there be a tendency to sell now that the big bailout news is all out? The way a pullback plays out in the next week or so -- especially as earnings and economic news hits -- is going to tell us an awful lot about the health of this market.
So what do we do at this point? It is still premature to build longer-term positions. You are not going to find good charts. We are still at a stage where all that matters is macroeconomic concerns, which can make for good intraday trading of the high levels of volatility, but you can forget trying to evaluate the state of individual stocks. They are all hostage to the big picture. Until volatility slows, individual stock-picking is going to very difficult.
So play the short-term movements if you are so inclined and don't worry about longer-term positions. Their time will eventually come, but it isn't here yet.
We have a flat start to the day as we continue to digest Monday's big move. More profit-taking and repositioning is a big danger at this point, especially if we don't get much going on this morning's news flow.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TSL +7.1%, KO +6.8%, ALTR +5.8%, DNA +3.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Piper and upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), INTC +3.0%... Other news: LYG +7.4% (checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: LVS +7.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), BYD +4.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), AAPL +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), WYNN +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), CRM +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LLTC -15.8%, DAL -4.8%, STT -4.7%, SCHW -4.6%, ASML -4.3%, JNY -4.1%, JPM -1.8%, WFC -1.2%... Select financial related stocks trading lower: KEY -11.9%, ING -9.4%, GS -6.8%, C -5.7% (Citi's rally ignores data like losses - WSJ), MS -3.6%, AIG -3.6%, DB -3.3%, BAC -2.3%, CIT -1.8% (announces $0.10 quarterly dividend and intention to sell approx. $8 mln of common equity)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -12.4%, RTP -8.9% (says long term outlook for co remains positive despite the upheavals in global markets; Chinese economy is pausing for breath), BBL -8.8%, BHP -7.8%, FCX -7.2%, RIO -6.5%, MT -5.0%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -10.3%, FRO -6.3%, DRYS -6.2%, DSX -2.8%... Other news: UN -4.7% and UL -3.3% (still checking for anything specific), NOK -3.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: EBAY (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), STM (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), DELL (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan),
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/15/2008 7:45 AM EDT
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous and conflicting information.
-- Winston Churchill
Now that the big bank rescue plan is under way, many market players are relieved that a dramatic collapse of our financial system has been averted. That, along with very oversold technical conditions, is what produced the record-setting bounce on Monday.
However, it would be foolish to assume that it is clear sailing from here. We still have many issues to grapple with, such as whether this big bailout plan really will work as hoped. Although there has been some thawing, the credit markets are still highly dysfunctional, and that needs to change before the stock market will benefit much.
Even if the bank bailout does help the credit markets, we still have major economic issues. We're going to see a lot of negative fallout from this credit crisis, and the key for the stock market is whether it has been priced in or not.
The only disagreement among economists about a recession is how long and deep it will be. Already there are predictions that unemployment will spike to more than 7.5% and earnings estimates are seen as 30% or more too high.
While those things sound quite dire, they need not kill the market if they are anticipated and already discounted. That is why this earnings season is going to be very important. We are going to see how much bad news this market is already expecting.
The big report from Intel (INTC) is so far receiving a favorable reception, and we also have Genentech (DNA) , Abbott (ABT) and JPMorgan (JPM) trading up on their reports. That is a start, but the big question is whether sustained buying will kick in.
Between economic reports and earnings, this market has some major hurdles to jump if it is going to start to trend upward, but what will really tell us the story is the technical action in the indices.
What we have technically right now is a massive downtrend and crash followed by a big, one-day, oversold bounce. While that has the potential of creating a low, we haven't seen anything yet to give us assurance that an uptrend is about to begin. The market will need to go through a series of pullbacks and rallies that create a trading range that holds before we can feel more comfortable about the possibility of upside.
Right now we are at the important stage of trading where we are trying to determine if our big bounce is going to be eroded by nervousness and profit-taking. Will there be bargain-hunters to provide some underlying support, or will there be a tendency to sell now that the big bailout news is all out? The way a pullback plays out in the next week or so -- especially as earnings and economic news hits -- is going to tell us an awful lot about the health of this market.
So what do we do at this point? It is still premature to build longer-term positions. You are not going to find good charts. We are still at a stage where all that matters is macroeconomic concerns, which can make for good intraday trading of the high levels of volatility, but you can forget trying to evaluate the state of individual stocks. They are all hostage to the big picture. Until volatility slows, individual stock-picking is going to very difficult.
So play the short-term movements if you are so inclined and don't worry about longer-term positions. Their time will eventually come, but it isn't here yet.
We have a flat start to the day as we continue to digest Monday's big move. More profit-taking and repositioning is a big danger at this point, especially if we don't get much going on this morning's news flow.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TSL +7.1%, KO +6.8%, ALTR +5.8%, DNA +3.9% (also upgraded to Buy at Piper and upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), INTC +3.0%... Other news: LYG +7.4% (checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: LVS +7.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), BYD +4.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), AAPL +2.0% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), WYNN +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), CRM +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LLTC -15.8%, DAL -4.8%, STT -4.7%, SCHW -4.6%, ASML -4.3%, JNY -4.1%, JPM -1.8%, WFC -1.2%... Select financial related stocks trading lower: KEY -11.9%, ING -9.4%, GS -6.8%, C -5.7% (Citi's rally ignores data like losses - WSJ), MS -3.6%, AIG -3.6%, DB -3.3%, BAC -2.3%, CIT -1.8% (announces $0.10 quarterly dividend and intention to sell approx. $8 mln of common equity)... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: AAUK -12.4%, RTP -8.9% (says long term outlook for co remains positive despite the upheavals in global markets; Chinese economy is pausing for breath), BBL -8.8%, BHP -7.8%, FCX -7.2%, RIO -6.5%, MT -5.0%... Select drybulk shippers trading lower: EXM -10.3%, FRO -6.3%, DRYS -6.2%, DSX -2.8%... Other news: UN -4.7% and UL -3.3% (still checking for anything specific), NOK -3.3% (still checking)... Analyst comments: EBAY (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), STM (downgraded to Underperform at Merrill), DELL (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan),
Fed drains $25 bln with overnight reverse repo operation
tuleb lugeda siis minu mõte WFC short möödapanekuks
Tehke Penn West Energy Trust (NYSE: PWE) kaubeldavaks, olge vuntsid.
Lisatud kaubeldavate aktsiate nimekirja.
ECB announces change to expand collateral framework-- Bloomberg
Suffiks, sa kavatsed seda osta või müüa? :)
Ostsin juba. Ma sain nädal aega tagasi PGH-ga rämedalt vastu lõugu, aga sektori suhtes olen ma kõike arvestades positiivne. Viimane nädal, ma pakuks on heki fondide likvideerimine. Praegu kauplevad PGH/PWE/HTE ca 1,6-2% peal kuus. Sisuliselt hindab turg sisse distributsioonide cutti ca 50% võrra, mis omakorda peaks tähendama prolonged periods of sub $50/bbl ja $6/mmbtu. Arvestades, et maailm langetas valiku hüperinflatsiooni kasuks, ei taha ma uskuda, et see olukord manifesteerub.
Ehk ma selgitan veel, et lühiajaliselt võib mis iganes juhtuda, aga pikem periood madalaid energiahindu eeldaks ikka korralikku depressiooni. See aga tähendaks omakorda oluliselt suuremaid probleeme. Ehk minu loogika kohaselt, kui tuleb Uus Suur Depressioon, on canroyd ikka veel kallid , kui ikkagi inflateeritakse end probleemidest välja ehk nafta jääb pikaajaliselt näiteks $60 juurde töllerdama, siis on nad ikka üpris odavad.
Kõik eelnev ei ole käsitletav investeerimisnõuandena ega soovitusena üldse midagi teha, mitte teha, teha laisalt, valesti, õigesti, vastumeelselt või hea meelega.
Kõik eelnev ei ole käsitletav investeerimisnõuandena ega soovitusena üldse midagi teha, mitte teha, teha laisalt, valesti, õigesti, vastumeelselt või hea meelega.
Võtan päevase treidina SPY long at 95.0...
Proovin püüda 2 punkti JOYG-l, sisenemine 27.54. Stopp 27 all.
Hüppan peipsi järve.. sisenen Kallastelt.
Kui 95-st spy läbi kukub? kus siis pidamine oleks???
pikaajalise ideena suurendasin pikka positsiooni III samba pensionifondis ... vaevalt sel aastal palju soodsamaid ostukohti tuleb 2009. aasta kevade tulumaksutagastuse mõttes :)
upser,
Hard stoppe niivõrd volatiilsel turul ise ei kasuta... Pool esmaspäevasest hiigeltõusust on käest ära antud ja usun, et päris palju on praegu väljas kurisalakaval näoga kauplejaid, kes ootavad rallijärgset korrektsiooni, et siseneda. Korrektsioon (-5% päev) on minu arvates siin...
Hard stoppe niivõrd volatiilsel turul ise ei kasuta... Pool esmaspäevasest hiigeltõusust on käest ära antud ja usun, et päris palju on praegu väljas kurisalakaval näoga kauplejaid, kes ootavad rallijärgset korrektsiooni, et siseneda. Korrektsioon (-5% päev) on minu arvates siin...