Riskiisu kipub muutuma iga päevaga ega suuda Euroopast tulevate uudiste tõttu hoida sama tooni veidigi pikema perioodi vältel kui kõigest mõni päev. Eilne sessioon tõi Euroopas ja USA-s indeksite ca 1%lise languse, kui spread Saksamaa ja perifeeriariikide võlakirjade tulususte vahel liikus taas kõrgemale.
Ehkki tegemist on novembrikuuga, siis käibemahud on USA börsidel kohati isegi kesisemad kui augustis, mil suurem osa turuosalisi oma puhkust veedab ja seetõttu on väga keeruline turu edasise suuna kohta praeguste liikumiste põhjal midagi tõsiseltvõetavat ennustada.
NYSE volume
Euroopas on täna kolmanda kvartali SKT raporteerimise aeg ning mitmed riigid on oma näitajad juba varajastel hommikutundidel avalikustanud. Prantsusmaa majandus kasvas aastataguse perioodiga võrreldes 1.6%, mis oli ootuspärane ja Saksamaa 2,6% ehk 0,1 pp jagu enam (lisaks korrigeeriti teise kvartali YoY kasvu 2,7% pealt 2,9% peale). Eurotsooni SKT avalikustatakse kell 12.00, kuid kuna värskem soft data viitab majandusaktiivsuse jahtumisele neljandas kvartalis, on turuosalised tõenäoliselt rohkem huvitatud sellest, mis hakkab järgnevate kuude jooksul sündima.
Kell 12.00 raporteeritakse lisaks Saksamaa ZEW novembrikuu indikaatorid, kell 15.30 USA oktoobrikuu jaemüük ja novembri Empire State töötleva tööstuse küsitlus ning kell 17.00 ettevõtete kaubavarude septembri muutus.
USA indeksite futuurid on hommikusest miinusest välja rabelenud ning jõudnud kergesse plussi.
Hispaania 10 a võlakirja yield on jõudnud nüüd tagasi samal tasemele augustis, vahetult enne seda kui EKP otsustas perifeeririikide võõlakirju hakata suuremas koguses kokku ostma.
Bernanke üks suurimaid kriitikuid FOMC liikmete seas, Richard Fisher, oli oma eilses esinemises veendunud, et USA majandus jätkab tuleval aastal kasvamist, mis välistab täiendava rahatrüki.
“I’m more comfortable now in terms of not -- this is me personally speaking -- not anticipating greater accommodation,” he said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “The direction we’re moving in is positive.”
See kommentaar oli aga vastupidine samal päeval avaldatud San Francisco Fed uurimusele, mille kohaselt oodatakse USAle 50%lise tõenäosusega majanduslangust. via Pragmatic Capitalism
“I’m more comfortable now in terms of not -- this is me personally speaking -- not anticipating greater accommodation,” he said yesterday in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York. “The direction we’re moving in is positive.”
See kommentaar oli aga vastupidine samal päeval avaldatud San Francisco Fed uurimusele, mille kohaselt oodatakse USAle 50%lise tõenäosusega majanduslangust. via Pragmatic Capitalism
Prantsusmaa 10 a võlakirja tulususe erinevus võrreldes Saksamaa omaga tegemas uusi tippe ning jõudnud taseme juurde, mis tegelikult pole kooskõlas AAA reitinguga.
Alloleval joonisel on kujutatud Hispaania 10 yieldi ja Saksa bundi yieldi erinevust, kust on näha, et ajal mil Hispaani jäi oma AAA-st ilma (2009-2010), oli spread alla 100 baspunkti. (S&P sooritas kärpe 2009.a jaanuaris, Fitch 2010.a mais)
Alloleval joonisel on kujutatud Hispaania 10 yieldi ja Saksa bundi yieldi erinevust, kust on näha, et ajal mil Hispaani jäi oma AAA-st ilma (2009-2010), oli spread alla 100 baspunkti. (S&P sooritas kärpe 2009.a jaanuaris, Fitch 2010.a mais)
EURO = KAPUTT või sii
spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?
spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?
Hispaania võlakirjaoksjon ei läinud ka kõige paremini, kui kokku loodeti erinevate tähtaegadega võlakirjade pealt saada maksimaalselt 3,5 miljardit eurot, ent tegelikult saadi 3,16 miljardit eurot.
Spain sells EUR2.6 bln in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 5.02% vs 3.608% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.13x vs 2.30x prior; Max Yield: 5.20% vs 3.68% prior
Spain sells EUR2.6 bln in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 5.02% vs 3.608% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.13x vs 2.30x prior; Max Yield: 5.20% vs 3.68% prior
TNT
EURO = KAPUTT või sii
spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?
lisaks spekulantidele üritavad avatust Euroopale jätkuvalt vähendada ka finantsasutused, kelle müük yielde üles surub
TNT
EURO = KAPUTT või sii
spekulandid tormavad nagu peata kanakari sinna-tänna?
defineerige palun EURO = KAPUTT lihtsa inimese jaoks ... mis päevast alates enam poes euro eest leiba ei saa osta?
Aastasel baasil kasvas eurotsooni majandus kolmandas kvartalis 1,4%, mis ühtis Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute konsensusega (teises kvartalis +1,6%).
Saksa finantsekspertide arvamusi kajastavad ZEW indeksid jätkavad halvenemist, ehkki jooksva olukorra hinnanag kujunes arvatust paremaks.
Itaalia 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus on taas üle 7% piiri kerkinud. EURUSD päeva põhjades $1,3530 tasemel ehk 0,7% miinuspoolel.
Panen siia Bloombergist võetud eurotsooni riikide 10-aastaste võlakirjade tulususused täna ja kuu aega tagasi. Üheksal riigil on indikatiivne yield tõusnud, kuuel riigil langenud. Üle 5%lise yieldiga on täna seitse riiki - nende seitsme riigi võlg kokku on ca €3 triljonit.
Juulis ja augustis näitas eurotsooni tööstustoodangu kasv kiirenemist võrreldes aastataguse perioodiga ja see oli hoopis vastupidine olukorrale, millele viitas töötleva tööstuse PMI indeks. Eile avaldatud septembri tööstustoodangu muutus aga on rohkem kooskõlas PMI-ga.
Ka Belgia maadles tänasel oksjonil oluliselt kõrgemate yieldidega võrreldes eelmiste kordadega kõigest nädal kuni paar tagasi. 1a yield oli viimase kolme aasta kõrgeim
Belgian 3-month T-Bill auction for EUR 1.830bln, bid/cover 1.45 vs. Prev. 2.41 (yield 1.575% vs. Prev. 0.957%)
Belgian 12-month T-Bill auction for EUR 0.895bln, bid/cover 1.64 vs. Prev. 2.30 (yield 3.396% vs. Prev. 1.673%)
Belgian 3-month T-Bill auction for EUR 1.830bln, bid/cover 1.45 vs. Prev. 2.41 (yield 1.575% vs. Prev. 0.957%)
Belgian 12-month T-Bill auction for EUR 0.895bln, bid/cover 1.64 vs. Prev. 2.30 (yield 3.396% vs. Prev. 1.673%)
Erko Rebane
Aastasel baasil kasvas eurotsooni majandus kolmandas kvartalis 1,4%, mis ühtis Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute konsensusega (teises kvartalis +1,6%).
Kas pool 'W'-d on juba valmis joonistatud?
Kui vähegi võimalik, siis Zerohedge ei jäta kasutamata võimalust Goldmani FX meeskonda nende callides maha teha ja ilmselt põhjust on kuna juba mitu aastat toimib Goldmani FX call contrarian indikaatorina. Läinud reedel soovitati minna EUR/USD-is pikaks targetiga 1,40 USD ja stop lossiga 1,35 dollarit. Täna on vahetuskurss stopile väga lähedale jõudmas.
Saksamaa 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus on aga teinud kõikide aegade madalaima taseme 0,295% juures (esmakordselt alla 0,3%).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VNET +13.1%, CIM +7.1%, AOB +6.7% (thinly traded), AGO +6% (ticking higher), DKS +4.2%, HD +1.3%.
Other news: MGI (trading post reverse stock split), NLST +44.7% (disclosed it entered into two memory technology Collaboration Agreements), CAST +17.8% (announced that it has formed a special committee of independent directors to consider all strategic alternatives), APC +2.2% (Anadarko Petro provides horizontal Niobrara Update - net resource potential of 500 million to 1.5 billion BOE), WFM +0.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: RVBD +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: VNET +13.1%, CIM +7.1%, AOB +6.7% (thinly traded), AGO +6% (ticking higher), DKS +4.2%, HD +1.3%.
Other news: MGI (trading post reverse stock split), NLST +44.7% (disclosed it entered into two memory technology Collaboration Agreements), CAST +17.8% (announced that it has formed a special committee of independent directors to consider all strategic alternatives), APC +2.2% (Anadarko Petro provides horizontal Niobrara Update - net resource potential of 500 million to 1.5 billion BOE), WFM +0.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: RVBD +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital).
October Retail Sales +0.5% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus; Prior +1.1%
October Retail Sales ex-auto +0.6% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
October Core PPI +0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
October PPI -0.3% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus
November Empire Manufacturing +0.60 vs -0.8 Briefing.com consensus; October -8.48
October Retail Sales ex-auto +0.6% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
October Core PPI +0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
October PPI -0.3% vs -0.2% Briefing.com consensus
November Empire Manufacturing +0.60 vs -0.8 Briefing.com consensus; October -8.48
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MITK -17.2%, GURE -14.6%, IOC -9.4%, LDK -7.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Kaufman), MOTR -6.2%, SPLS -5.7% (light volume), SURG -5.5% (light volume), URBN -5%, ZAGG -2.4%, WMT -1.9%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -6.8%, NBG -5.5%, BAC -4.1%, CS -4%, BBVA -2.7%, UBS -2.5%, BCS -2.4%, DB -2.1%, HBC -1.3%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -2.3%, STO -1.6%, RDS.A -1.3%, BP -0.6%, E -0.5%.
Other news: HAFC -13.3% (commenced an underwritten public offering of ~$70 mln of its common stock), GERN -9.1% (announced earlier it will focus on its first-in-class oncology programs; cutting 66 jobs), CADX -6.8% (continued weakness), ATVI -5.5% and TTWO -3.3% (still checking), PVR -5% (announces it has commenced a public offering of 7 mln common units), KOG -4.9% (agrees to acquire an additional 50K net leasehold acres and 3,500 BOE/d of current net production in heart of Bakken Trend, announces 2012 preliminary capital Budget; provides 2012 production guidance; updates estimated reserves quantities, announces $550 mln offering of senior notes and proposed public offering of common stock of 37.5 mln common shares), LNKD -3.9% (filed amended S-1), HSTM -2.7% (announces commencement of common stock public offering), LOGI -2.7% (still checking), CONM -2.1% (announced it has received notice from Ayelet Investments Ayelet Merger Subsidiary the counterparties to Conmed's previously announced Merger Agreement, that Ayelet does not in good faith believe that it will be able to obtain financing), FIG -1.4% (hearing related to pricing of block trade).
Analyst comments: ALIM -5.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), OVTI -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Strong Buy at Needham), POR -3.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), BRC -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), MRO -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), TSO -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), STX -2.3% (light volume, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), QRE -1.7% (thinly traded, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), AAP -1.3% (ticking lower, Advance Auto downgraded to Hold at Argus), K -1.1% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MITK -17.2%, GURE -14.6%, IOC -9.4%, LDK -7.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Kaufman), MOTR -6.2%, SPLS -5.7% (light volume), SURG -5.5% (light volume), URBN -5%, ZAGG -2.4%, WMT -1.9%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -6.8%, NBG -5.5%, BAC -4.1%, CS -4%, BBVA -2.7%, UBS -2.5%, BCS -2.4%, DB -2.1%, HBC -1.3%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: TOT -2.3%, STO -1.6%, RDS.A -1.3%, BP -0.6%, E -0.5%.
Other news: HAFC -13.3% (commenced an underwritten public offering of ~$70 mln of its common stock), GERN -9.1% (announced earlier it will focus on its first-in-class oncology programs; cutting 66 jobs), CADX -6.8% (continued weakness), ATVI -5.5% and TTWO -3.3% (still checking), PVR -5% (announces it has commenced a public offering of 7 mln common units), KOG -4.9% (agrees to acquire an additional 50K net leasehold acres and 3,500 BOE/d of current net production in heart of Bakken Trend, announces 2012 preliminary capital Budget; provides 2012 production guidance; updates estimated reserves quantities, announces $550 mln offering of senior notes and proposed public offering of common stock of 37.5 mln common shares), LNKD -3.9% (filed amended S-1), HSTM -2.7% (announces commencement of common stock public offering), LOGI -2.7% (still checking), CONM -2.1% (announced it has received notice from Ayelet Investments Ayelet Merger Subsidiary the counterparties to Conmed's previously announced Merger Agreement, that Ayelet does not in good faith believe that it will be able to obtain financing), FIG -1.4% (hearing related to pricing of block trade).
Analyst comments: ALIM -5.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), OVTI -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Strong Buy at Needham), POR -3.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), BRC -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), MRO -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), TSO -2.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), STX -2.3% (light volume, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), QRE -1.7% (thinly traded, downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), AAP -1.3% (ticking lower, Advance Auto downgraded to Hold at Argus), K -1.1% (light volume, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).