Prügitööstusest sai põgusalt kirjutatud16. juuni börsipäeva foorumis. Täna on Waste Management (WMI) tõstmas teise kvartali kasumiprognoose:
WMI sees Q2 EPS of $0.61-0.62 vs $0.58 consensus; sees revs of $3.49 bln vs $3.42 bln consensus
Aktsia on vahepeal langenud (trailing PE 16) ning kuigi hinnataset väga odavaks ei pea, siis tänase uudise najal näeb WMI ise sektoris oluliselt rohkem kasvuvõimalusi. Nimelt tehti ülevõtupakkumine Republic Service'le (RSG). Ühe aktsia eest ollakse nõus maksa $34, mis on 22% kõrgem reedesest sulgemishinnast ning sellisel juhul kaupleks RSG 22.5-kordsel kasumil.
Sektoris on huvitavad ajad, sest selle pakkumisega rikutakse tõenäoliselt RSG ja Allied Waste'i (AW) ühinemiskõnelused. Viimane on seetõttu päeva alustamas tugevas miinuses, muutudes kasumikasvu arvestades hinnatasemelt juba atraktiivsemaks.
Bounce Alert! By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 7/14/2008 8:12 AM EDT
I saved a girl from being attacked last night. I controlled myself. -- Rodney Dangerfield
The indices are set to gap up big on news of a rescue plan for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) . Of course, it would have been a lot better if they had controlled themselves in the first place and didn't need be saved, but at least we are forestalling some problems in the short term.
The big question now is whether the bailout plan is anything more than a band-aid. Does this move by the feds really change anything fundamental about the market? Have we already priced in all the problems out there?
Before we answer the question, we have to acknowledge the fact that the market has become quite oversold and is due to bounce. We have been going almost straight down for over a month and are due for at least some temporary relief. The Fannie and Freddie bailout is a perfect catalyst for a bounce. Some might even hope that it will make for a major turning point in the indices. That seems overly hopeful and unlikely, but we are due for some upside; what we have to figure out is how far it will go and how long will it last.
The bad news is that the failure of the 30th-largest bank in the U.S., Indymac (IMB) , over the weekend has helped raise a new crop of worries. We haven't heard that much about the issues in some of the smaller regional banks, but this collapse does raise the visibility. The banking sector still has some tremendous problems, and many of them aren't fully appreciated by the market.
The possible good news is that a bounce at this point could be aided by earnings season. Expectations are obviously quite low, and that sets up the possibility of a "buy the bad news" reaction to some reports. We will have to wait and see the market's attitude, but so far GE (GE) and Alcoa (AA) have had minor positive reactions since they reported their earnings. Tuesday night we start to see some of the more important reports, and that will be the real test for this market.
In the meantime, we have to contend with a big gap up open this morning. It is never easy when we have this sort of move on Monday morning. So often they fail, but occasionally we do get a "gap and go" move. I see no reason to be overly trusting and I continue to be more focused on playing defense in a bear market than worrying about an oversold bounce. I'll move slowly at the open and see how things develop as the day progresses. If we really are due for a good rally, it should last longer than an hour or two -- or even a day. ----------------------------- Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ATI +11.5%, CSIQ +11.1%... M&A news: RSG +19.4% (Waste Management proposes to acquire Republic Services for $34.00/share in cash), BUD +1.7% (InBev and Anheuser-Busch agree to combine; BUD shareholders to receive $70/share)... Mortgage/financial names rebounding following Treasury's Paulson announcing GSE initiatives for FNM (+33.8%) and FRE (+35.7%): LEH +16.4%, MBI +9.0%, CIT +8.4%, SLM +6.3%, MER +5.0%, C +5.0%, WFC +4.8%, BAC +4.8%, GS +3.4%, MS +3.3%, JPM +3.3%, WB +3.1%, HBC +2.4%... Select solar stocks showing strength boosted by positive CSIQ earnings/guidance: SOLF +7.7% (Solarfun Power and Schuco enter into 47 MW sales contract), YGE +4.1%, LDK +3.5%, STP +3.2%, SPWR +2.8%, ESLR +2.7%, FSLR +2.5%... Other news: CRME +23.5% (announces "positive Phase 2b results for oral Vernakalant"), NDAQ +10.6% (mentioned positively in Barron's), PHG +5.8% (shares rise most in 5 years as profit beats estimates - Bloomberg.com), PPG +1.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: CIEN +5.0% (upgraded to Market Perform at JMP), M +4.7% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), FAST +4.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), AA +3.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman-DJ), NOV +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at BofA).
Allapoole avanevad:
M&A news: WMI -2.4% (Waste Management proposes to acquire Republic Services for $34.00/share in cash)... Other news: IMB -50.0% (seized as financial troubles spread - Reuters), CGV -5.0% (still checking), FRO -1.7% (says higher fuel costs may spur tankers to slow down - Bloomberg.com), RDS.A -1.6% (to buy Duvernay Oil - DJ), CLNE -1.5% (files a $150 mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3), TEVA -1.1% (still checking), YHOO -1.1% (Yahoo! rejects Microsoft/Icahn search and restructuring proposal)... Analyst comments: ZION -4.0% (downgraded to Sell and added to Conviction Sell List at Goldman - DJ), MAN -2.0% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), SAPE -1.5% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), PSO -1.0% (downgraded to Sell at Deutsche Bank).
Freddie Mac: 3-month bill rate seen 2.34-2.35%, 6-month bill rate seen 2.51-2.52%, according to buyside source who has seen indicative pricing - Reuters
Päris kole vaatepilt igal juhul - kuigi nüüd on tagasi nulli jõutud, siis vahepeal olid FRE ja FNM langenud -8% peale. Lootus väga kaua vastu ei pidanud. Samal ajal tulemas Reutersi vahendusel ka uudiseid Bernanke sõnavõtust:
Fed says new final mortgage rules ban prepayment penalties if payment can rise in first 4 years, ban deceptive mortgage advertising, prohibit use of "fixed" when rate or payment can change
Mõtlen, et kui Republic Services (RSG) kaupleb ülevõtuhinna suhtes 7% madalamal, siis kas see äkki liiga suur riskikartlikkus ei ole. Allied Wastega (AW) ühinemisprotsess ei tohiks takistuseks olla (Waste Management noted that the Republic-Allied merger agreement expressly contemplates alternative proposals from third parties and defines a process for Republic to respond to those proposals), kapitali peaks jätkuma ning konurentsireegleid ei rikuta (The proposal provided to the Republic Board directly addresses the antitrust issues and concretely demonstrates the Company’s confidence that these issues can and will be dealt with in an effective and timely manner). Tõenäoliselt kardetakse kõige enam viimase pärast, aga need lihtsalt random mõtted.
Madis, ei, avanemisel olid muud asjad silmapiiril ja ei jõudnud kõike rabada. Selliseid asju ootaks rohkem, kus on mingi idee ka olemas, mitte lihtsalt kopipaste.
CNBC vahendusel üks võimalik nimekiri pankadest siis, mis võivad põhja minna:
CNBC highlights Ladenburg's list of banks that could be at risk: DSL, DRL, BFF, BKUNA, CORS, FBP, FED, FBC, SBP... Says WM is on the edge of the "danger zone"
Ladenburg kasutab sama diplomaatilist väljendit nagu meie vahel - "could be at risk". Siit nimekirjast mõni "could be at risk" sama palju, kui prussakas, kes on niidi otsa seotud alasi alla teibiga kinni pitseeritud. Sest fakt on see, et isegi alasi ripub niidi otsas. Kuigi ehk ainult millisekundi jagu.