Pärast retail sales´i intressifutuuurid vähe liikunud. Hetkel implied probability 50/50 -25 ja -50 bps cuti kasuks. See on nüüd puhtalt minu arvamus aga FED ei saa enam palju lõputult intresse langetada. Reaalintresisd lähevad liiga negatiivseks ja infla muutub liiga ebameeldivaks probleemiks tulevikus. Sellele buumile järgenud surutise perioodil ei hoita enam intresse nii kaua madalal.
Morgan Stanley WB kohta:
Second, consensus EPS estimates need to come down about 10% in 2Q08-4Q08 and in 2009. Management is suggesting that the new $0.375 dividend per quarter will put them in their guidance for a cash payout ratio of 40-50%. EPS will need to decline to reflect this outlook. Third, capital needs could rise as neg am loan losses build given housing value deterioration and the economy weakens stressing other parts of Wachovia’s balance sheet.
USa on tänast päeva alustamas marginaalse miinusega.
Saksamaa DAX -0.81%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.27%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.82%
Hispaania IBEX -0.87%
Venemaa MICEX -0.65%
Poola WIG -0.75%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.05%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.47%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -5.62%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -5.87%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.66%
Tai Set N/A (börs suletud)
India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)
Beware the Unknown
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/14/2008 9:09 AM EDT
As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can.
-- Julius Caesar
We are kicking off the week under a blanket of worry and gloom. The poor earnings from General Electric (GE) on Friday has drained the market of the nascent hope that maybe the worst has been priced in. The market is now contemplating further problems, such as increased inflationary pressures and banks scrambling to raise capital.
Many market players were hopeful that the tide had begun to turn with the rally on the first day of April. Momentum trading picked up, we held above key technical levels and there seemed to be some underlying bids and dip-buying action. The poor news from GE undercut that fragile upturn.
Can the market return to the view that the worst is already being priced in, which would justify slowly starting some accumulation? That seems to always be the view of a certain faction of Wall Street. They will always tell you that weakness is a buying opportunity and that the worst is almost over. They are almost always too early and end up simply fueling more downside when they give up in disgust.
My style is to always be very slow in embracing the idea that the market has bottomed. I'm much more concerned about being caught in a failed bounce than I am about being left behind when the market really does turn. Good markets give plenty of time to jump in and seek profits. Unfortunately, this one is now proving that it isn't so good and that standing aside is still warranted.
Although things look awfully gloomy at the moment, the good news is that this increase in negativity as we head into the bulk of earnings season is probably good. Expectations have obviously fallen quickly in the last few days, and that gives us a better chance of seeing some relief-buying if reports aren't absolutely horrible.
Unfortunately, the report from Wachovia (WB) this morning is supporting the notion that maybe expectations aren't low enough. The big bank is trading down sharply as it lowers earnings and seeks capital.
With the major indices breaking back below key technical support levels, there is little we can do at this juncture other than stay defensive, be patient and ignore the advice from the usual suspects that we need to be heavily long in order to avoid being left behind in the rally that is sure to occur at any moment.
With earnings reports on tap, things are going to be trickier than usual, so proceed with caution and protect that valuable capital.
------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ANTP +32.5%, ETN +5.8%, GWW +4.4%, ALO +1.0%, FII +1.0%... M&A news: CC +55.1% (BBI proposes to acquire Circuit City for at least $6.00/share in cash), CLAY +22.4% (to be acquired by Greenfield Partners for $6.00/share in cash)... Other news: AGIX +41.7% (announces "encouraging interim results" from Phase 3 clinical trial of AGI-1067 in type 2 diabetes), AAI +26.6% (updates financial information in response to Friday's market activity; also upgraded to Add at Calyon), INGN +12.1% (announces that ADVEXIN Ph. III clinical trial data in patients with recurrent head and neck cancer confirm earlier Ph. II results of ADVEXIN efficacy), NTRI +7.5% (will replace FRNT in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close on 4/15), NWA +5.8% and DAL +5.4% (aims to unveil NWA merger pact), TSL +2.6% (discontinues development of polysilicon production facility), AMR +2.0% (rebounding modestly; announced plan to be back to a full, normal schedule on Sunday), PTEC +1.9% (says profit to grow 'immediately'; purchase will boost profit, to raise forecast April 22- Bloomberg), CETV +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VLO +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), PRGO +1.2% (announces approval for over-the-counter children's Cetirizine oral solution), REP +1.1% (CNPC interested in Repsol assets - South Morning China Post)... Analyst upgrades: PETM +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), EV +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SMG -8.5%, WB -7.9%, CRS -6.9%, ACLS -5.2%, GSIG -3.7%, FFHL -1.9%, PHG -1.5%... M&A news: BBI -10.5% (proposes to acquire Circuit City for at least $6.00/share in cash)... Select finanical stocks showing weakness following WB earnings: RF -3.9%, CS -2.2%, BAC -1.8%, WFC -1.6%, C -1.5%, MER -1.4%... Select Chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: NINE -5.5%, ACH -5.1%, SNP -3.1%, CAF -2.6%, LFC -2.4%, BIDU -1.1%... Other news: GRO -9.4% (announces that the co has been named as a defendant in a securities class action and intends to vigorously contest and defend allegations), PKX -5.1% (drops over 6% on steel margin concerns - Reuters), HOG -1.5% (Hearing tier-1 firm says U.S. retail trends likely deteriorated in March)... Analyst downgrades: CYMI -6.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), WEN -2.1% (Hearing reinstated with a Sell at tier 1 firm), FAST -2.0% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/14/2008 9:09 AM EDT
As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can.
-- Julius Caesar
We are kicking off the week under a blanket of worry and gloom. The poor earnings from General Electric (GE) on Friday has drained the market of the nascent hope that maybe the worst has been priced in. The market is now contemplating further problems, such as increased inflationary pressures and banks scrambling to raise capital.
Many market players were hopeful that the tide had begun to turn with the rally on the first day of April. Momentum trading picked up, we held above key technical levels and there seemed to be some underlying bids and dip-buying action. The poor news from GE undercut that fragile upturn.
Can the market return to the view that the worst is already being priced in, which would justify slowly starting some accumulation? That seems to always be the view of a certain faction of Wall Street. They will always tell you that weakness is a buying opportunity and that the worst is almost over. They are almost always too early and end up simply fueling more downside when they give up in disgust.
My style is to always be very slow in embracing the idea that the market has bottomed. I'm much more concerned about being caught in a failed bounce than I am about being left behind when the market really does turn. Good markets give plenty of time to jump in and seek profits. Unfortunately, this one is now proving that it isn't so good and that standing aside is still warranted.
Although things look awfully gloomy at the moment, the good news is that this increase in negativity as we head into the bulk of earnings season is probably good. Expectations have obviously fallen quickly in the last few days, and that gives us a better chance of seeing some relief-buying if reports aren't absolutely horrible.
Unfortunately, the report from Wachovia (WB) this morning is supporting the notion that maybe expectations aren't low enough. The big bank is trading down sharply as it lowers earnings and seeks capital.
With the major indices breaking back below key technical support levels, there is little we can do at this juncture other than stay defensive, be patient and ignore the advice from the usual suspects that we need to be heavily long in order to avoid being left behind in the rally that is sure to occur at any moment.
With earnings reports on tap, things are going to be trickier than usual, so proceed with caution and protect that valuable capital.
------------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ANTP +32.5%, ETN +5.8%, GWW +4.4%, ALO +1.0%, FII +1.0%... M&A news: CC +55.1% (BBI proposes to acquire Circuit City for at least $6.00/share in cash), CLAY +22.4% (to be acquired by Greenfield Partners for $6.00/share in cash)... Other news: AGIX +41.7% (announces "encouraging interim results" from Phase 3 clinical trial of AGI-1067 in type 2 diabetes), AAI +26.6% (updates financial information in response to Friday's market activity; also upgraded to Add at Calyon), INGN +12.1% (announces that ADVEXIN Ph. III clinical trial data in patients with recurrent head and neck cancer confirm earlier Ph. II results of ADVEXIN efficacy), NTRI +7.5% (will replace FRNT in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close on 4/15), NWA +5.8% and DAL +5.4% (aims to unveil NWA merger pact), TSL +2.6% (discontinues development of polysilicon production facility), AMR +2.0% (rebounding modestly; announced plan to be back to a full, normal schedule on Sunday), PTEC +1.9% (says profit to grow 'immediately'; purchase will boost profit, to raise forecast April 22- Bloomberg), CETV +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VLO +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), PRGO +1.2% (announces approval for over-the-counter children's Cetirizine oral solution), REP +1.1% (CNPC interested in Repsol assets - South Morning China Post)... Analyst upgrades: PETM +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), EV +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SMG -8.5%, WB -7.9%, CRS -6.9%, ACLS -5.2%, GSIG -3.7%, FFHL -1.9%, PHG -1.5%... M&A news: BBI -10.5% (proposes to acquire Circuit City for at least $6.00/share in cash)... Select finanical stocks showing weakness following WB earnings: RF -3.9%, CS -2.2%, BAC -1.8%, WFC -1.6%, C -1.5%, MER -1.4%... Select Chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: NINE -5.5%, ACH -5.1%, SNP -3.1%, CAF -2.6%, LFC -2.4%, BIDU -1.1%... Other news: GRO -9.4% (announces that the co has been named as a defendant in a securities class action and intends to vigorously contest and defend allegations), PKX -5.1% (drops over 6% on steel margin concerns - Reuters), HOG -1.5% (Hearing tier-1 firm says U.S. retail trends likely deteriorated in March)... Analyst downgrades: CYMI -6.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), WEN -2.1% (Hearing reinstated with a Sell at tier 1 firm), FAST -2.0% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper).
BBI aktsionärid ei tundu erilist sünergiat nägevat, aktsia -10%.
Madis, mida teha?... 6 peale see va. CC tagasi ei kisu, kas oleks rumalus praegu aktsiad müüki panna, või..oodata veel pisut?
Kas sul on see positsioon veel alles Leiko???
Circuit City (CC) kohta tuli välja selline uudis: Icahn agrees to finance Blockbuster bid for Circuit City ja aktsia hind hakkas uuesti kerkima, hetkel $5.14 ja 31.79% üleval.
5.15 müüsin maha, praega 5.03
Uudise mõju oli lühiajaline ning hetkeks kosuti kuid nüüd tõesti allapoole tiksunud.
leiko, kui müüsid juba, siis pole mu vastusest enam kasu. Aga kui selline tõus kaasa sõidetud, siis tasub tõesti müüa. Oleneb muidugi ka eesmärgist ja nägemusest, mis aktsiat ostes võttes, aga vaevalt, et sellist tulu nii kiiresti ootasid.
Icahni uudis on oma sisult tegelikult juba hommikune ja praegu enam olulist mõju ei avalda. Kuigi suurt sünergiat kahe ettevõtte vahel ei näe, läksin CC-s lühiajaliselt $5.09 pealt pikaks.
Icahni uudis on oma sisult tegelikult juba hommikune ja praegu enam olulist mõju ei avalda. Kuigi suurt sünergiat kahe ettevõtte vahel ei näe, läksin CC-s lühiajaliselt $5.09 pealt pikaks.
Eelturg ja päeva algus olid justkui roosilisemad, aga 10-ndal ostsin 4.63-ga päeva lõpuks olin juba -7% ja reedeõhtaks -15%, aga tänane ca. +35% oli vahva küll, tänan tähelepanu eest! Igatahes- pole paha....
Blockbuster (BBI) Investor concerns may cause company to abandon Circuit City proposal!
Leiko, mu küsimus oli rohkem retooriline. Ma imestasin, et sa poole päevani oma plussi imetlema jäid. Kui selline tõus sülle kukub, siis tuleb see raha laualt ära võtta ja edasi liikuda.
See BBI + CC on nagu Dumb ja Dumber, vaadake paari aasta graafikuid, mõlemad ettevõtted täie võimsusega tegelenud aktsionäride vara hävitamisega.
Next up: Maapank võtab üle Pennu Computers Technology.
Next up: Maapank võtab üle Pennu Computers Technology.
puhkjapojad, sain aru küll, kuid kogemused USA börsil tegelikult puuduvad ja kui eelturul tõesti näitas dollari jagu kõrgemat hinda siis ajas silmad suureks küll, aga jään sellegagi rahule, sest see oli ettevõetud suure riskiga. Järgmine kord olen targem, või tean vähemalt kust küsida! Igatahes lõpp hea kõik hea.
CROX on halted
Oi kui kole Crocs.
Kus CROX treidida võiks avanedes? Kuradi alla müüdud lately. Läheb 16 kanti?
16:48 CROX sees Q1 guidance at $0.08-$0.13, ex items vs $0.45 First Call consensus
16:46 CROX Board of Directors approved an authorization to repurchase up to an additional 5 mln shares of its common stock
16:45 CROX guides Q1 ($0.05)-$0.00 vs $0.45 First Call consensus; revs $195-200 mln vs $223.30 mln First Call consensus
16:46 CROX Board of Directors approved an authorization to repurchase up to an additional 5 mln shares of its common stock
16:45 CROX guides Q1 ($0.05)-$0.00 vs $0.45 First Call consensus; revs $195-200 mln vs $223.30 mln First Call consensus