Aasia sessioonil avaldati Austraalia töötururaport, mille kohaselt lisandus detsembris 2300 uut töökohta, kuigi oodati 25 tuhande uue töökoha lisandumist. Töötusmäär langes sealjuures 5,2% pealt 5,0% peale.
Euroopa sessioonil on täna mõned väga olulised sündmused. Esiteks avaldatakse kell 11.30 Suurbritannia novembrikuu tööstustoodangu ja töötleva tööstuse toodangu andmed. Seejärel kell 14.00 teeb Inglismaa keskpank teatavaks oma intressimäära ja stiimulprogrammi mahu otsuse, mis kõikide ootuste kohaselt jäetakse vastavalt 0,5% ja £200 miljardi peale.
Kell 14.45 teeb oma intressimäära otsuse teatavaks ka Euroopa keskpank, kuid ka selle puhul oodatakse praeguse 1% intressimääraga monetaarpoliitika jätkumist.
USA sessionil ilmuvad Kanada kaubandusbilansi andmed, USA tootjahinnaindeksid ja novembrikuu kaubandusbilanss. Kell 15.30 ilmuvad ka töötuabiraha taotlejate andmed.
Põhjapanevaid uudiseid tänasel Euroopa Keskpanga pressikonverentsil ei oodata. Tõenäolisteks teemadeks saavad olema arengud Euroopa võlakirjaturgudel ning keskpanga toetav roll. Sellele lisaks võiks jutuks tulla kindlasti ka eurotsooni inflatsioon, mis on kallinenud toiduainete ja energiahindade tõusu tõttu jõudnud üle 2,2%. Küll aga muudab tänase pressikonverentsi eriliseks see, et Tricheti kõrval teeb oma debüüdi Andres Lipstok, kellele ehk jagub ka mõni küsimus.
Suure pauguga USA börsile sisse murdnud Hiina kuumad IPO-d Youku.com (YOKU), mida kutsutakse ka Hiina YouTube-ks ja Dangdang (DANG) tuntud ka kui Hiina Amazon on alates 8. detsembri debüüdist tõusnud vastavalt 191% ja 98%.
StreetInsider.com veebileht kirjutab, et alates 17. jaanuarist saavad analüüsimajad antud aktsiaid ka katma hakata ning, kes on endale need "raketid" radarile võtnud, peaks siis 18.jaanuaril ( 17. jaanuaril on USA turud M.L. King`i päeva tõttu suletud) valmis olema, kuulamaks, mida uut ja põnevat analüütikutel öelda on.
StreetInsider.com veebileht kirjutab, et alates 17. jaanuarist saavad analüüsimajad antud aktsiaid ka katma hakata ning, kes on endale need "raketid" radarile võtnud, peaks siis 18.jaanuaril ( 17. jaanuaril on USA turud M.L. King`i päeva tõttu suletud) valmis olema, kuulamaks, mida uut ja põnevat analüütikutel öelda on.
Kas keegi saab kirju "Schaeffer's Exclusive of the Day"? Kas tõmbsite alla 20 Best Investments for 2011? Mis need oleks?
Spordi-ja joogarõivaid müüv kauplustekett Lululemon Athletica (LULU) aktsia trügis eile kadestamisväärse järjekindlusega oma uute tippude poole, sest firma juhtkond ütles, et nende neljanda kvartali müük kasvas võrreldes möödunud aastaga üle 25%. LULU aktsia sulgus $72,85 peal, olles päeva jooksul rallinud 8,3%.
Tänane New York Post kirjutab, et mitmed analüütikud on aktsia suhtes skeptilisemaks muutunud ning usuvad, et kõik head uudised on nüüdseks juba aktsiahinda sisse arvestatud. Credit Suisse analüütik Omar Saad on aga vastupidisel arvamusel ning on veendunud, et LULU on suutnud leida vastuse igivanale küsimusele, mida naised kanda tahavad ning kuidas nad seda osta eelistavad.
Tänane New York Post kirjutab, et mitmed analüütikud on aktsia suhtes skeptilisemaks muutunud ning usuvad, et kõik head uudised on nüüdseks juba aktsiahinda sisse arvestatud. Credit Suisse analüütik Omar Saad on aga vastupidisel arvamusel ning on veendunud, et LULU on suutnud leida vastuse igivanale küsimusele, mida naised kanda tahavad ning kuidas nad seda osta eelistavad.
LULU CS on eilne kommentaar. Seda juttu, et aktsia kallis ja siit short aetakse juba üpris pikka aega. Vaata aktsia liikumist ning shortide osakaalu selles. Palju õnne neile.
Panen siia ka tänaste võlakirjaoksjonite tulemused:
Spain sells EUR3 bln 5-yr notes; Avg yield 4.542% (prior Auction 3.576%); Bid/Cover 2.1x (prior1.6x)
Italy sells EUR3 bln 5 year notes; Avg yield 3.67% (prior Auction 3.24%); Bid/Cover 1.412x (prior 1.41x)
Italy sells EUR3 bln 10-year notes; Avg yield 5.06% (prior Auction 4.81%); Bid/Cover 1.42x (prior 1.3x)
Spain sells EUR3 bln 5-yr notes; Avg yield 4.542% (prior Auction 3.576%); Bid/Cover 2.1x (prior1.6x)
Italy sells EUR3 bln 5 year notes; Avg yield 3.67% (prior Auction 3.24%); Bid/Cover 1.412x (prior 1.41x)
Italy sells EUR3 bln 10-year notes; Avg yield 5.06% (prior Auction 4.81%); Bid/Cover 1.42x (prior 1.3x)
Inglismaa keskpank jättis vastavalt ootustele intressimäära 0,5% peale ja stiimulprogrammi mahu £200 miljardi peale.
Ja ka Euroopa keskpank jättis intressimäära muutmata 1% peale, vastavalt ootustele. EURUSD erilist reaktsiooni ei näita ja kaupleb 0,3% kõrgemal 1,3172 juures.
Nüüd hakkas euro kergelt rallima, olles ligi 0,5% kõrgemal $1,3194 taseme juures.
Täna on analüütikud võtnud luubi alla Micron Technology (MU).
Nimelt tõstavad MU reitingut „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale nii Baird kui ka Sterne Agee analüüsimaja ning hinnasihid tõstetakse vastavalt $15 ja $12 peale. Lisaks neile kinnitab Wedbush oma ostusoovitust ning tõstab hinnasihi samuti $15 peale.
Baird analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust stabiliseeruvate DRAM hinnatrendidega, tugeva NAND flash väljavaate põhjal ning MU tootmiskasvuga selles vallas. Fundamentaalsed näitajad peaks see aasta samuti DRAM tööstuses paranema hakkama, vaatama hiljutisele hinnalangusele.
Upgrading MU shares to Outperform on stabilizing DRAM pricing trends, potential DRAM production cuts in 1H11, strong NAND flash outlook for the year, and an expected significant increase in Micron’s own sales of NAND flash this year. DRAM content per box should also increase starting C2Q11, helping demand. Fundamentals in the DRAM industry continue to strengthen despite the recent price weakness, benefiting from two years of below-average capex spending.
Sterne Agee analüütikud usuvad samuti, et DRAM hinnad on teele paranemisele ja seda lähikuude jooksul.
We are upgrading MU to a Buy, $12 PT from Neutral, as we think DRAM pricing will start to moderate and stabilize over the next couple of months. DRAM pricing is down 45% (since 9/21 downgrade) and GMs are down 800-900bps in two quarters. We believe DRAM pricing has now come full circle back to 2008 levels, and will bottom out here, especially as PC builds start for the next PC cycle (March) with increasing content/box. We believe the February quarter should mark a trough in DRAM pricing/margins, and position for a rebound.
Wedbush analüütikud on MU juba valinud oma 2011. Aasta parimaks ideeks ning peale kohtumist nii klientide kui ka juhtkonnaga on nad enam kui veendunud, et fundamentaalsed näitajad DRAM turul on pöördumas.
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on Micron, one of our Top 2011 Technology picks, and we are increasing our PT to $15 from $11. We came away from our meetings with clients and Micron’s management these past two days in the Midwest with an even higher level of confidence that (1) fundamentals in the DRAM market are turning, (2) FY:11 FCF will likely be positive, and (3) Intel’s decision to not fund the next round of IMFS CapEx is a significant positiive bolstering overall NAND GM and supply, enabling MU to benefit from the string secular growth drivers of tablets and smartphones.
Palju positiivseid kommentaare ja kaks upgrade`i, mis pole ka turuosalistele märkamata jäänud, sest aktsia kaupleb juba 4% plusspoolel eelturul. Samas tuleb tähelepanu juhtida ka eilsele rallile, kui MU aktsia tõusis ligi 8%. Ei ostaks seda liiga kõrgelt, sest lisaks eilsele rallile on ka Goldman Sachs täna väljas negatiivsete kommentaaridega MU kohta, öeldes, et nende arvates pole DRAM hinnasurve veel lõppenud. Täna on siin reaalne ka stsenaarium, et aktsiahind aetakse eelturul liiga kõrgele ning avanemisel kukub aktsia ära.
Nimelt tõstavad MU reitingut „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale nii Baird kui ka Sterne Agee analüüsimaja ning hinnasihid tõstetakse vastavalt $15 ja $12 peale. Lisaks neile kinnitab Wedbush oma ostusoovitust ning tõstab hinnasihi samuti $15 peale.
Baird analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust stabiliseeruvate DRAM hinnatrendidega, tugeva NAND flash väljavaate põhjal ning MU tootmiskasvuga selles vallas. Fundamentaalsed näitajad peaks see aasta samuti DRAM tööstuses paranema hakkama, vaatama hiljutisele hinnalangusele.
Upgrading MU shares to Outperform on stabilizing DRAM pricing trends, potential DRAM production cuts in 1H11, strong NAND flash outlook for the year, and an expected significant increase in Micron’s own sales of NAND flash this year. DRAM content per box should also increase starting C2Q11, helping demand. Fundamentals in the DRAM industry continue to strengthen despite the recent price weakness, benefiting from two years of below-average capex spending.
Sterne Agee analüütikud usuvad samuti, et DRAM hinnad on teele paranemisele ja seda lähikuude jooksul.
We are upgrading MU to a Buy, $12 PT from Neutral, as we think DRAM pricing will start to moderate and stabilize over the next couple of months. DRAM pricing is down 45% (since 9/21 downgrade) and GMs are down 800-900bps in two quarters. We believe DRAM pricing has now come full circle back to 2008 levels, and will bottom out here, especially as PC builds start for the next PC cycle (March) with increasing content/box. We believe the February quarter should mark a trough in DRAM pricing/margins, and position for a rebound.
Wedbush analüütikud on MU juba valinud oma 2011. Aasta parimaks ideeks ning peale kohtumist nii klientide kui ka juhtkonnaga on nad enam kui veendunud, et fundamentaalsed näitajad DRAM turul on pöördumas.
We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating on Micron, one of our Top 2011 Technology picks, and we are increasing our PT to $15 from $11. We came away from our meetings with clients and Micron’s management these past two days in the Midwest with an even higher level of confidence that (1) fundamentals in the DRAM market are turning, (2) FY:11 FCF will likely be positive, and (3) Intel’s decision to not fund the next round of IMFS CapEx is a significant positiive bolstering overall NAND GM and supply, enabling MU to benefit from the string secular growth drivers of tablets and smartphones.
Palju positiivseid kommentaare ja kaks upgrade`i, mis pole ka turuosalistele märkamata jäänud, sest aktsia kaupleb juba 4% plusspoolel eelturul. Samas tuleb tähelepanu juhtida ka eilsele rallile, kui MU aktsia tõusis ligi 8%. Ei ostaks seda liiga kõrgelt, sest lisaks eilsele rallile on ka Goldman Sachs täna väljas negatiivsete kommentaaridega MU kohta, öeldes, et nende arvates pole DRAM hinnasurve veel lõppenud. Täna on siin reaalne ka stsenaarium, et aktsiahind aetakse eelturul liiga kõrgele ning avanemisel kukub aktsia ära.
Kell 15.30 algavat ECB pressikonverentsi on võimalik jälgida siit
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EXFO +15.6%, MRCY +4.6%, KBR +3.4%.
M&A news: XCO +2.6% (announced it will explore strategic alternatives including a potential sale; will consider proposal received on October 29, 2010 to purchase all of EXCO's outstanding common shares for $20.50/share).
Select financial related names showing strength: BBVA +3.9%, STD +2.8%, RBS +2.6%, ING +1.6%, DB +1.2% (initiated with a Neutral at Collins Stewart), LYG +0.9%, HBC +1.0%, BCS +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Collins Stewart).
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: MRO +11.6% (has approved moving forward with plans to spin off Marathon's downstream business creating two independent energy cos), VLO +4.2%, REP +4.0%, APC +1.9%, E +1.6%, BP +1.3%, RIG +1.2%, CHK +0.6%.
Other news: BCRX +2.7% (announces that peramivir found to be generally safe and well-tolerated), JDSU +2.3% (still checking), CAKE +2.0% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), JKS +0.9% (ticking higher; registers of RMB 600 mln 1-yr short-term financing bonds and issuance of first tranche of RMB 300 mln), SWC +0.8% (light volume, discloses 2010 mine production results; mined production of palladium and platinum reported at high end of co's guidance), AIG +0.8% (announces satisfaction of condition to issuance of warrants via dividend).
Analyst comments: MU +3.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, upgraded to Buy at Sterne Agee), JNPR +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity), DE +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), DOX +1.4% (light volume; was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), NYX +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), WYNN +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott), TM +1.0% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan).
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EXFO +15.6%, MRCY +4.6%, KBR +3.4%.
M&A news: XCO +2.6% (announced it will explore strategic alternatives including a potential sale; will consider proposal received on October 29, 2010 to purchase all of EXCO's outstanding common shares for $20.50/share).
Select financial related names showing strength: BBVA +3.9%, STD +2.8%, RBS +2.6%, ING +1.6%, DB +1.2% (initiated with a Neutral at Collins Stewart), LYG +0.9%, HBC +1.0%, BCS +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Collins Stewart).
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: MRO +11.6% (has approved moving forward with plans to spin off Marathon's downstream business creating two independent energy cos), VLO +4.2%, REP +4.0%, APC +1.9%, E +1.6%, BP +1.3%, RIG +1.2%, CHK +0.6%.
Other news: BCRX +2.7% (announces that peramivir found to be generally safe and well-tolerated), JDSU +2.3% (still checking), CAKE +2.0% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), JKS +0.9% (ticking higher; registers of RMB 600 mln 1-yr short-term financing bonds and issuance of first tranche of RMB 300 mln), SWC +0.8% (light volume, discloses 2010 mine production results; mined production of palladium and platinum reported at high end of co's guidance), AIG +0.8% (announces satisfaction of condition to issuance of warrants via dividend).
Analyst comments: MU +3.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, upgraded to Buy at Sterne Agee), JNPR +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at ThinkEquity), DE +1.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), DOX +1.4% (light volume; was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), NYX +1.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), WYNN +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott), TM +1.0% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan).
Arvamus MU kohta. Pakuks, et pigem open short. Kogu see sektori disko tahetakse Inteli tulemuste eel kuigipalu lukku panna. Inteli ja Nvidia suhteline nõrkus natuke reedab, mis täna võib sealkandis juhtuma hakata. Või siis on Inteli tulemused kuskile lekkinud. Või ostetakse Intel ja Nvidia Microni sümopaatiaks ka üles. Võib-olla on veel mõni või, aga üks on kindel, eriti ei tahaks seda MU-d siit osta.
Initial Claims 445K vs 415K Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to 410K from 409K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.879 mln from 4.127 mln
November Trade Balance -$38.3 bln vs -$41.0 bln Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to -$38.4 bln from -$38.7 bln
December Core PPI +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.3%
December PPI +1.1% vs +0.8% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.8%
Continuing Claims falls to 3.879 mln from 4.127 mln
November Trade Balance -$38.3 bln vs -$41.0 bln Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to -$38.4 bln from -$38.7 bln
December Core PPI +0.2% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.3%
December PPI +1.1% vs +0.8% Briefing.com consensus; prior +0.8%
Täna on Janney Capital Markets väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Wynn Resorts (WYNN) kohta.
Janney Capital Markets tõstab WYNN aktsia reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos hinnasihiga $150.
We had thought before the Macau market would grow to $30 bln by 2012, and we now bthink that could be conservative. We believe the market could grow 19% to $28 bln this year and then another 14% in 2012 to $32 bln. Wynn has been able to maintain a mid to high teens market share recently, but with coming competition from the Galaxy property on Cotai and eventually sites five and six from Las Vegas Sands, we do expect this will decline. Still, we think Wynn can maintain a 15% share and that could be conservative.
Wynn will benefit from the ongoing recovery in Las Vegas. The recovery should continue to benefit from a lack of new supply going forward now that the Cosmopolitan has opened. With the strengthening and the fact that Wynn only has 4,700 high-end rooms to fill, we expect to see the two properties outperform the rest of the Strip.
Analüütikud usuvad, et Macau turg kasvab $30 miljardi suuruseks 2012. Aastaks, mis nende sõnul võib olla ka liiga konservatiivne prognoos. Vaatamata suurenevale konkurentsile arvavad analüütikud, et WYNN suudab oma turuosa hoida vähemalt 15% peal ning ka see prognoos võib osutuda liiga tagasihoidlikuks.
Ühtlasi lõikab analüütikute sõnul WYNN kasu ka paranevast olukorrast Las Vegases.
WYNN aktsia on samuti läbi teinud hoogsa ralli, aga samas on uus $150 hinnasiht uus street high. Kuna WYNN on üsna äkiline aktsia, siis tuleks kogused väikesed ja stopid lähedal hoida. Meeles tasuks pidada ka seda, et Janney callidel pole sama mõjuvõimu, mis suurematel majadel.
Janney Capital Markets tõstab WYNN aktsia reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos hinnasihiga $150.
We had thought before the Macau market would grow to $30 bln by 2012, and we now bthink that could be conservative. We believe the market could grow 19% to $28 bln this year and then another 14% in 2012 to $32 bln. Wynn has been able to maintain a mid to high teens market share recently, but with coming competition from the Galaxy property on Cotai and eventually sites five and six from Las Vegas Sands, we do expect this will decline. Still, we think Wynn can maintain a 15% share and that could be conservative.
Wynn will benefit from the ongoing recovery in Las Vegas. The recovery should continue to benefit from a lack of new supply going forward now that the Cosmopolitan has opened. With the strengthening and the fact that Wynn only has 4,700 high-end rooms to fill, we expect to see the two properties outperform the rest of the Strip.
Analüütikud usuvad, et Macau turg kasvab $30 miljardi suuruseks 2012. Aastaks, mis nende sõnul võib olla ka liiga konservatiivne prognoos. Vaatamata suurenevale konkurentsile arvavad analüütikud, et WYNN suudab oma turuosa hoida vähemalt 15% peal ning ka see prognoos võib osutuda liiga tagasihoidlikuks.
Ühtlasi lõikab analüütikute sõnul WYNN kasu ka paranevast olukorrast Las Vegases.
WYNN aktsia on samuti läbi teinud hoogsa ralli, aga samas on uus $150 hinnasiht uus street high. Kuna WYNN on üsna äkiline aktsia, siis tuleks kogused väikesed ja stopid lähedal hoida. Meeles tasuks pidada ka seda, et Janney callidel pole sama mõjuvõimu, mis suurematel majadel.
Motorola Mobility: Carl Icahn discloses 11.39% stake in 13D filing
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LEDS -31.3%, DRWI -14.0%, INFY -5.7%, BBBB -2.4% (also announced it completed the acquisition of Presidium, changes to reporting, reaffirmed 2010 guidance, issued Q1 and FY11 guidance), WSM -1.7%, AGNC -1.5% (also announces public offering of common stock of 18 mln shares).
LED related names under pressure following LEDS results: CREE -5.0%, VECO -4.4%, AIXG -4.3%,
Other news: SSNC -5.5% (files for 11 mln share common stock offering, including 9 mln by selling shareholders), CLSN -4.0% (ticking lower; Celsion announces convertible preferred stock financing and amended license agreement for aggregate gross proceeds of up to $9 mln), NGG -3.2% (still checking), GERN -3.0% (under pressure following presentation last night at JPM Annual Healthcare Conference), BTI -2.4% (trading lower on light volume; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), NVS -1.5% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: PIR -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), ETFC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), XLNX -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), MLNX -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ELN -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), TXN -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies).
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LEDS -31.3%, DRWI -14.0%, INFY -5.7%, BBBB -2.4% (also announced it completed the acquisition of Presidium, changes to reporting, reaffirmed 2010 guidance, issued Q1 and FY11 guidance), WSM -1.7%, AGNC -1.5% (also announces public offering of common stock of 18 mln shares).
LED related names under pressure following LEDS results: CREE -5.0%, VECO -4.4%, AIXG -4.3%,
Other news: SSNC -5.5% (files for 11 mln share common stock offering, including 9 mln by selling shareholders), CLSN -4.0% (ticking lower; Celsion announces convertible preferred stock financing and amended license agreement for aggregate gross proceeds of up to $9 mln), NGG -3.2% (still checking), GERN -3.0% (under pressure following presentation last night at JPM Annual Healthcare Conference), BTI -2.4% (trading lower on light volume; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), NVS -1.5% (still checking for anything specific).
Analyst comments: PIR -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at BB&T), ETFC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), XLNX -1.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Jefferies), MLNX -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), ELN -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), TXN -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies).
Lipstok ECB aasta esimesel pressikonverentsil siiski ei osalenud, mistõttu vabandan eksitava info pärast.
Longing for Variety
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/13/2011 8:42 AM EST
Variety's the source of joy below,
From whence still fresh-revolving pleasures flow,
In books and love the mind one end pursues,
And only change the expiring flames renews.
-- John Gay
What makes trading interesting and lucrative is that it is a very effective way to deal with the variety that the market tends to dish out. Dealing with the inevitable mood swings, trend changes and surprises is what trading is all about.
If the market does the same thing every day, all you need to do is ride the trend. It is a great environment for a buy-and-hold approach when we go up day after day, but it doesn't give traders many opportunities ... and after a while it is just plain boring.
And make no mistake about it, this is a market that is setting records for one-way action. According to Sentimentrader.com, the S&P 500 has now gone 92 days without closing below its 50-day moving average. That has only happened 17 times since 1928. But what is really amazing is that over the past 30 days, we haven't closed below the 10-day moving average even once. That has never happened in the last 82 years of market history.
To add to the lopsidedness of the action, we have had only one day since the end of November where the S&P 500 closed down more than 0.5%. The second-worst day was only down 0.21%.
The market has had many amazing uptrends over the year, but this latest run has been truly remarkable in how little variety we have seen.
Rather than belabor the point, the more important issue is how you deal with such lopsided action. The best approach has been what I've suggested, which is to stay with the trend and don't try to anticipate a reversal. That is much harder to do than it sounds, but if you have at least avoided being anticipatory and haven't tried shorting, you are in much better shape than the bears who are being crushed.
Will the earnings season finally change the character of the market action? Intel (INTC) earnings have often marked turning points in the market, as they helps set the tone for the reactions that occur. Do we have a "sell the news" inclination, or do we have an "all news is good news" reaction? Given how we've run into earnings, you have to be watching for some "sell the news" reactions.
I have to admit I'm becoming quite tired of the action in this market and have to be careful about not letting my desire for greater volatility color my thinking. I keep selling into strength and find it harder and harder to add new longs. If we don't pull back soon I'll be holding extremely high levels of cash -- not because I'm bearish, but because my discipline doesn't allow me to do much buying.
We'll see what happens on Intel tonight. Just keep in mind that this market has already set a record for one-way action, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue its record-breaking performance.
It is fairly flat and quiet out there this morning. Hopefully it is the calm before the earnings storm.