-USA futuurid on miinuses, ning Nasdaq peaks avanema eilsest sulgemishinnast pool protsenti madalamal. USA jaemüük langes aprillis 0,5%, mis oli oodatust rohkem, samas on toiduainete ja energia hinnatõus väga kiire.
-USA tootjahinnaindeks kerkis aprillis 0,7%, märtsis tõusis vastav näitaja 1,3%. Samas kui volatiilsed toiduainete ja energiahinnad maha arvestada, siis kerkis näitaja vaid 0,2%.
-Disney (DIS) aktsia on eelturul 1,7% plussis, firma eelmise kvartali kasum kasvas üle ootuste hästi (73% tõusu).
-Vaatamata aprilli jaemüüginumbri nõrkusele on hoos Wal-Mart aktsia (WMT), firma kasum ületas sendi võrra aktsia kohta prognoose (22 senti) ning küündis 2,2 miljardi dollarini.
-Deutsche Bank kergitas Texas Instruments (TXN) soovitust "hoia" peale. UBS andis ostusoovituse Goldman Sachs (GS) aktsiale.
Rev Shark:
After the huge intraday reversal yesterday, do market participants now have the hope and faith and confidence to drive this market higher? Has fear and uncertainty been washed out in a finally-selling climax and paved the way for steady accumulation to shift the trend back up?
Maybe. The big reversal yesterday certainly was significant. The indices bounced almost precisely at the same moment the S&P 500 tested its 200-day simple moving average. It was the second test in the past three days, but it acted as a catapult for the market. Technicians believe that the more times an area of support is tested, the less likely it is to hold. So we will have to keep a very close eye on that level, which is 1078, in the days ahead.
Technically, an intraday reverse of that magnitude is a big positive. When we sell off that hard and then reverse, many marginal and nervous bulls are likely to get shaken out. With these nervous holders on the sidelines, stocks are now generally in stronger hands and have a better foundation for moving higher.
However, the big reversal does not justify blind faith in the upside. Overall, many individual stock charts and most of the indices still look very weak, but just a little less weak than they did about two hours before yesterday's close. While the S&P 500 and DJIA did manage to reclaim their 200-day simple moving averages (the Nasdaq didn't), a market isn't too healthy when all the major indices are still under their 50-day simple moving averages.
The market needs to reward our faith with some follow through. A one-day reversal does not set up compelling entry points in most individual stock charts. The most rewarding buy points generally come after a stock has hit a low and bounced around a bit. Only after some work has been done and a new base of support has been built is the risk-to-reward ratio in our favor.
The major problem for this market now is some very substantial overhead. Although yesterday's reversal looks very promising, there are plenty of folks still holding positions with unrealized losses who will be happy to sell if they can get back close to even. The first major area of overhead for the Nasdaq is the 200-day simple moving average at 1942 and then the 1975 area.
Both the DJIA and S&P 500 have some overhead in areas slightly below their 50-day simple moving averages. For the DJIA, that level is around 10,250 and for the S&P 500 around 1120. Those levels would constitute quite a substantial move, and the tone of this market is going to have to continue at very positive levels to put that overhead into play.
The move yesterday was a good start, but it doesn't justify throwing caution to the wind. We need proof that the reversal was real and not just a product of program trading and traders looking for some quick profits. The long-term institutional buyers need to step up and show us some accumulation.
I continue to feel quite strongly that there still is no big rush to build long-term positions in individual stocks. Watch for support levels to build and logical entry points to form. It will take a few days after a market turn for the best long-term buy points to form.
In the early going, the market is looking a bit hung over from yesterday's joie de vivre. We have some economic news coming up this morning that will help set the tone for the day. The most important thing for the indices is that they not give back too much of yesterday's gains. The recent lows are the obvious support levels, and if we stay above them there is hope that a major turn is at hand.
Gary B. Smith:
