Teen natukene pattu ning panen üles Citi värske arvamuse Frontier turgude kohta, milles on käsitletud ka Eestit.
Bumpy landing. Estonia has become the first frontier market economy to seeits economy contract in 2008 (falling by 1.4% YoY in the second quarter) ascredit tightened and consumption fell sharply.
Dependence on the Scandi banks. The extent of Estonia’s recession may depend on whether the Scandinavian banks, which own big stakes inEstonia’s banking system, will continue to provide funding.
Recovery in 2009? An improvement in the current account and slowing wage growth indicates that the economy should start to recover next year.
Lühidalt: Six of the frontier markets we examine in this report are in Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine), six are in the Middle East/Africa (Jordan, Kenya, Lebanon, Mauritius, Nigeria and Tunisia) and three are in Asia (Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam).
Paneb imestama kuidas Eesti ikka sellise supi sisse sattus. Mainitud riike on ikka väga raske ühe mõõduga mõõta. Tore et kolme Eesti ettevõtte pärast, mis indeksisse võetud, on korralikult üle käidud kogu Eesti turg ja makronäitajad.
Eww...Lebanon? Nigeria? Vietnam? Täiesti uskumatu, kui madalale me oleme langenud mõne % hapuks läinud laenude pärast. :) Lohutagem endid sellega, et siit hullemaks vist enam minna ei saa...
Jaheneva globaalse majanduskeskkonna taustal leiab veel riike, kus intresse agressiivselt ülespoole liigutatakse. Näiteks täna tõstis Brasiilia intressimäära 13.0% pealt 13.75%ni.
Optimist ütleb et enam hullekaks minnaa ei saa aga pessimist ütleb, et te pole veel näinudki kui hull asi on! Too ära tabava lõike Raaasukese jutust: Kui teistel riikidel on võimalik kõrvale panna kogemus, kuidas mullid maailma eri paigus on lõhkenud. Mis meil on vastu panna? Ainult enda arvamus ja seda olukorras, kus viimase pooleteise aasta jooksul oleme demonstreerinud, kuidas meie enda ennustused ligilähedaseltki paika ei pea.
Give This Bear Market a Hug By Rev Shark RealMoney.com Contributor 9/11/2008 8:50 AM EDT
If I could define enlightenment briefly, I would say it is ''the quiet acceptance of what is.''
--Wayne Dyer
Most of the pain of a bear market is caused by the refusal to accept the fact that we are in one. If investors would simply embrace the fact that we are in a downtrending market and may not hit bottom for a while, they will relieve themselves of much pain and suffering.
Unfortunately, the nature of the market is to constantly battle against the reality that the market is acting poorly. Instead of raising cash and sitting on the sidelines, investors are encouraged to constantly look for turning points and to try to find stocks that might act OK while the rest of the market flounders.
Even when investors do fully embrace the fact of a bear market, they can still be painful because for most, it is more difficult to make money on the short side. Nonetheless, if you accept the fact that you are not going to be finding a lot of good trades, life becomes much easier.
One of the great benefits of embracing the idea of a bear market is that it does give you better perspective. Instead of hoping that maybe you'll be bailed out of bad positions, you start evaluating the action in a more realistic way. You don't get excited and hopeful over each countertrend bounce and don't rush to buy when the serial bottom callers try to convince you that we are yet again at another turning point.
Embracing your inner bear doesn't mean you have to be a pessimist anticipating a complete economic meltdown. It simply means that you acknowledge the fact that for now, the market is not acting well, and that it is premature to risk your capital.
The action is looking quite grim as we kick off the day. Lehman (LEH) continues to be a major issue for the financial sector, as well as worries grow over a worldwide economic slowdown. We are going to open very weak if indications hold. ---------------------------- Ülespoole avanesid:
With equity futures trading significantly lower this morning (S&P futures -18, Dow futures -130), very few stocks are trading higher in premarket... In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CSX + 4.8%, GCOM + 3.7%.
Allapoole avanesid:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KNXA -19.8% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard and downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), LULU -11.1%, ACTL -5.0%... Select mortgage/financial stocks trading lower: LEH -40.7% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs- DJ and downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), MER -15.0%, WM -13.4%, IRE -11.4%, RDN -11.1%, SNV -10.4%, SCA -8.8%, AIB -8.5% (downgraded to Sell at Dresdner Kleinwort), MTG -8.0%, ABK -7.6%, PMI -7.5%, MS -7.5%, AIG -7.4%, MBI -6.3%, RBS -6.2%, BAC -6.1% (ests cut at Credit Suisse and RBC lowering ests following recent disclosures), AXA -6.0% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), UBS -5.9%, BCS -5.9%, LYG -5.9%, WB -5.8%, ING -5.4%, GS -5.0%, DB -4.8%, C -4.3%, JPM -3.3%, WFC -3.0%, NMR -2.3% (leads Asian financials down after Lehman loss - Bloomberg.com)... Select metals/mining stocks trading lower with strength in dollar and lower spot prices: GOLD -4.0%, GFI -3.7%, BHP -2.7%, MT -2.2%, RTP -1.4%, HMY -1.3%, GLD -1.3%... Select solar names showing weakness: FSLR -7.0%, YGE -5.6%, LDK -5.2%, JASO -5.1%, TSL -4.9%, CSIQ -4.4%, ESLR -4.2%... Other news: CHL -5.1% (trading ex-dividend)... Analyst comments: PDLI -5.3% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AEG -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), NVDA -4.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), AZN -3.6% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman - DJ), RAI -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
(AIG) American Intl exposure to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac preferred shares between $550 mln-$600 mln, according to source - Reuters Aktsia $14.58 tasemel, -16.19% languses.