Peale eilset tõusu leiame turu täna avanemas parajas miinuses: Dow Jones ca -0,41% ja Nasdaq -1,01%.
Languse peamiseks põhjuseks on eile peale turu sulgemist Cisco (CSCO) poolt avaldatud tulemused, aktsia ise on täna eelturul languses -8,80% kui ettevõtte täitis küll lõppenud kvartali prognoosid, kuid tulevikuväljavaated ei ole just rõõmustavate killast kui järgmisteks kvartaliteks käibe olulist kasvu ei oodata samas kui lõppenud kvartal juba andis tunnistust marginaalide vähenemisest.
Rev Shark:
"Trust everybody, but cut the cards."
-- Finley Peter Dunne
Stock market participants have to be capable of trust or they will never be able to do anything. All trades and investments require a certain amount of blind faith. There are no guarantees or certainties. Either you learn to trust or you stick to treasury bonds.
That doesn't mean that your trust level never changes. There are times, like now, when we should be extremely skeptical of the market's ability to reverse course. The real gamblers act on their gut feel about the market. They make the big, bold bet and hope they hit a home run.
The professional trader takes a different approach. He doesn't trust until he sees a situation where the odds are in his favor. He doesn't rely on anecdotal evidence, hope or blind faith. He stays patient and then, when conditions are right, he puts his trust in his experience and facts, and places his bets.
Our No. 1 goal in the stock market isn't to make as much money as possible, but to stay in the game. As long as you stay in the game, you have the potential for profits. The way you stay in the game is to be very careful about trusting your hard-earned capital to risky situations. You don't want to be so cautious you never do anything but you also want to be selective enough that you are playing only high-odds situations.
In a poker game, you can always bluff if you find yourself on the wrong end of the deal, but that doesn't work with Mr. Market. You can talk all you want about your winning hand, but Mr. Market will always call your bluff. Trying to outlast Mr. Market with a contrary trade is a tough way to earn a living.
After the nice, low-volume move following the FOMC interest rate decision, the serial-bottom callers were once again ready to declare victory. Unfortunately Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) didn't cooperate. It issued a weak forecast and is struggling with too much inventory.
The light volume yesterday was the key tip-off that the bounce should not be trusted. Don't worry about catching the lows; wait for the odds and then you attack. Right now the odds continue to favor the bears.
We have a very weak open on the way, with Cisco wrecking havoc in a number of ways. The market continues to be quite oversold, which means we should see some upward spike attempts, but they are likely to attract sellers rather than buyers.
G. B. Smith:
