Mul karv püsrti
Look for Clarity After the Announcement
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/10/2009 8:49 AM EST
Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.
-- Davy Crockett
As the $800 billion "stimulus" bill moves through Congress, the market is focused much more intently on the bank bailout bill to be announced by Treasury Secretary Geithner this morning. There is plenty of speculation about how the plan will be structured, but the details have not yet seen the light of day. As the market contemplates how something like setting minimum values for toxic assets held by banks might work, we are losing some of the enthusiasm we saw last week when a "bad bank" idea was first broached.
I have to admit that I'm tremendously skeptical about whether any of these plans are going to be of any real help. The argument by President Obama that Republicans, who helped to cause this problem by doubling the deficit, have no right to be critical of him for increasing the deficit by an exponential amount makes little sense to me. I believe we are going to cause even worse problems down the road, but no one is asking me for advice about what to do, so I'm not going to bore you with it.
The question we have to focus on is how to deal with this market. Are market players going to be more optimistic than I am about what all these plans will do for the market? Last week there was some excitement, and then yesterday we muddled about while we waited for details. President Obama's press conference last night doesn't seem to be having any impact, but it is really the bank bailout plan that will be the star of the day.
So far, nothing that has been rumored about the bank plan in the last couple of days is causing much excitement. As is typical, once the details of these plans come to light, it's clear they all have major flaws and/or optimistic assumptions.
Given how the market has reacted to all other government plans we have seen over the past year, any positive reaction is likely to be short-lived. In this case, the announcement of the plan has been much more anticipated than anything we have seen before, which makes the risk of a "sell the news" reaction even higher.
Technically, the major indices are not set up very well either. We've had a bounce over the last three days on declining volume, we're running into overhead resistance and we need something pretty dramatic to get momentum moving. The good news continues to be that we are holding above the lows of January, but the bears are definitely going to be sniffing around to do some selling should we see some strength on the bank news.
Once the news is out and the market digests it, we will have a better picture to deal with. Today is likely to be very whippy and should be fun if you like to play slot machines. As far as accumulating favorable-looking charts, today is unlikely to be the day for that.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AFG +18.6%, PCX +12.3%, YGE +11.2%, HERO +8.0%, ASEI +7.7%, UBS +7.7%, Q +7.4%, TRA +6.3%, WIRE +6.2% (light volume), GNW +6.0%, VLNC +3.5%, PLD +3.4% (light volume), CVH +2.1% (light volume), QGEN +1.8%, ACM +1.8%... M&A news: SIRF +93.5% (SiRF Technology and CSR to merge; SiRF shareholders to get 0.741 of an ordinary share in CSR for each SiRF share), ROH +3.1% (Financial Times reports The Kuwait Investment Authority would consider increasing its support for DOW'S disputed takeover of Rohm and Haas), DNA +1.0% (Roche commences tender offer for Genentech for US$86.50 per share in cash)... Select financials showing strength ahead of Geithner's bank-rescue plan: FITB +7.3%, RF +5.6%, STI +5.3%, HBAN +5.0%, DB +3.1%, BAC +3.0%, C +2.8%, CIT +2.4%, BCS +2.4%, WFC +2.0%, JPM +1.2%... Select gold related names showing strength: GFI +4.1%, AUY +3.0%, NEM +2.0%, ABX +1.9%, GOLD +1.7%... Other news: PDS +5.3% (announced that it has entered into an underwriting agreement today to issue a total of 46 mln trust units at a price of $3.75 per Trust Unit), VPHM +4.5% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's 40%+drop), GM +2.5% (to cut salaried positions to 63k from 73k in 2009 - DJ), GGP +2.4% (Gen Growth Prop gets 24-hour loan extension - WSJ), DOW +2.3% (KIA rethink on Dow Chemical deal - FT)... Analyst comments: TSL +6.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), JASO +5.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), ENER +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Piper and upgraded to Buy at Ardour Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PFG -23.8% (also tgt cut to $12 at Credit Suisse following earnings), SB -16.6%, VRGY -16.3%, LNCR -13.4%, ZOLT -11.0%, CXW -8.8%, MDC -6.6% (light volume), LGF -6.2%, IUSA -5.4%, ICE -4.9%, HCP -4.8% (light volume), LNC -4.3%, BA -4.0% (reported Q4 results in 10-K $0.04 less than prior reported EPS number), CPST -3.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), VRTX -2.9%, MON -2.8%, CRL -2.0%, SYNT -1.5%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -5.9%, BHP -4.1%, BBL -3.5%, AAUK -3.3%, RIO -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse)... Select insurer related names trading lower: HIG -7.2% (S&P lowers, puts on watch negative Hartford Financial Services ratings), MET -4.1%, ALL -3.0%, PRU -2.8%... Select European financials trading lower: ING -3.6%, LYG -2.7%, RBS -2.3%, HBC -2.2%... Other news: CBST -14.6% (plans to commence patent infringement litigation against Teva Parenteral Medicines in response to ANDA filing), DLR -3.9% (announces 2.5 mln common share offering), ENZN -3.2% (discontinues further development of rhMBL; also announces IND acceptance for its Survivin antagonist), NOK -2.8% (still checking), OSIP -2.8% (announces notification of ANDA filing for Tarceva)... Analyst comments: ORLY -6.2% (downgraded to Sell at Rochdale), CRDN -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at Stanford Research), TWX -3.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), ASML -3.1% (removed from Alpha List at Piper Jaffray), HNZ -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), SWY -2.4% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), YHOO -2.0% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), SOHU -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Pali Research).
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/10/2009 8:49 AM EST
Remember that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.
-- Davy Crockett
As the $800 billion "stimulus" bill moves through Congress, the market is focused much more intently on the bank bailout bill to be announced by Treasury Secretary Geithner this morning. There is plenty of speculation about how the plan will be structured, but the details have not yet seen the light of day. As the market contemplates how something like setting minimum values for toxic assets held by banks might work, we are losing some of the enthusiasm we saw last week when a "bad bank" idea was first broached.
I have to admit that I'm tremendously skeptical about whether any of these plans are going to be of any real help. The argument by President Obama that Republicans, who helped to cause this problem by doubling the deficit, have no right to be critical of him for increasing the deficit by an exponential amount makes little sense to me. I believe we are going to cause even worse problems down the road, but no one is asking me for advice about what to do, so I'm not going to bore you with it.
The question we have to focus on is how to deal with this market. Are market players going to be more optimistic than I am about what all these plans will do for the market? Last week there was some excitement, and then yesterday we muddled about while we waited for details. President Obama's press conference last night doesn't seem to be having any impact, but it is really the bank bailout plan that will be the star of the day.
So far, nothing that has been rumored about the bank plan in the last couple of days is causing much excitement. As is typical, once the details of these plans come to light, it's clear they all have major flaws and/or optimistic assumptions.
Given how the market has reacted to all other government plans we have seen over the past year, any positive reaction is likely to be short-lived. In this case, the announcement of the plan has been much more anticipated than anything we have seen before, which makes the risk of a "sell the news" reaction even higher.
Technically, the major indices are not set up very well either. We've had a bounce over the last three days on declining volume, we're running into overhead resistance and we need something pretty dramatic to get momentum moving. The good news continues to be that we are holding above the lows of January, but the bears are definitely going to be sniffing around to do some selling should we see some strength on the bank news.
Once the news is out and the market digests it, we will have a better picture to deal with. Today is likely to be very whippy and should be fun if you like to play slot machines. As far as accumulating favorable-looking charts, today is unlikely to be the day for that.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AFG +18.6%, PCX +12.3%, YGE +11.2%, HERO +8.0%, ASEI +7.7%, UBS +7.7%, Q +7.4%, TRA +6.3%, WIRE +6.2% (light volume), GNW +6.0%, VLNC +3.5%, PLD +3.4% (light volume), CVH +2.1% (light volume), QGEN +1.8%, ACM +1.8%... M&A news: SIRF +93.5% (SiRF Technology and CSR to merge; SiRF shareholders to get 0.741 of an ordinary share in CSR for each SiRF share), ROH +3.1% (Financial Times reports The Kuwait Investment Authority would consider increasing its support for DOW'S disputed takeover of Rohm and Haas), DNA +1.0% (Roche commences tender offer for Genentech for US$86.50 per share in cash)... Select financials showing strength ahead of Geithner's bank-rescue plan: FITB +7.3%, RF +5.6%, STI +5.3%, HBAN +5.0%, DB +3.1%, BAC +3.0%, C +2.8%, CIT +2.4%, BCS +2.4%, WFC +2.0%, JPM +1.2%... Select gold related names showing strength: GFI +4.1%, AUY +3.0%, NEM +2.0%, ABX +1.9%, GOLD +1.7%... Other news: PDS +5.3% (announced that it has entered into an underwriting agreement today to issue a total of 46 mln trust units at a price of $3.75 per Trust Unit), VPHM +4.5% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's 40%+drop), GM +2.5% (to cut salaried positions to 63k from 73k in 2009 - DJ), GGP +2.4% (Gen Growth Prop gets 24-hour loan extension - WSJ), DOW +2.3% (KIA rethink on Dow Chemical deal - FT)... Analyst comments: TSL +6.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), JASO +5.4% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill), ENER +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Piper and upgraded to Buy at Ardour Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PFG -23.8% (also tgt cut to $12 at Credit Suisse following earnings), SB -16.6%, VRGY -16.3%, LNCR -13.4%, ZOLT -11.0%, CXW -8.8%, MDC -6.6% (light volume), LGF -6.2%, IUSA -5.4%, ICE -4.9%, HCP -4.8% (light volume), LNC -4.3%, BA -4.0% (reported Q4 results in 10-K $0.04 less than prior reported EPS number), CPST -3.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), VRTX -2.9%, MON -2.8%, CRL -2.0%, SYNT -1.5%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -5.9%, BHP -4.1%, BBL -3.5%, AAUK -3.3%, RIO -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse)... Select insurer related names trading lower: HIG -7.2% (S&P lowers, puts on watch negative Hartford Financial Services ratings), MET -4.1%, ALL -3.0%, PRU -2.8%... Select European financials trading lower: ING -3.6%, LYG -2.7%, RBS -2.3%, HBC -2.2%... Other news: CBST -14.6% (plans to commence patent infringement litigation against Teva Parenteral Medicines in response to ANDA filing), DLR -3.9% (announces 2.5 mln common share offering), ENZN -3.2% (discontinues further development of rhMBL; also announces IND acceptance for its Survivin antagonist), NOK -2.8% (still checking), OSIP -2.8% (announces notification of ANDA filing for Tarceva)... Analyst comments: ORLY -6.2% (downgraded to Sell at Rochdale), CRDN -4.1% (downgraded to Sell at Stanford Research), TWX -3.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), ASML -3.1% (removed from Alpha List at Piper Jaffray), HNZ -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), SWY -2.4% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), YHOO -2.0% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), SOHU -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral at Pali Research).
Föderaalreserv valmis TALFi mahte suurendama, et pangad saaksid soovi korral varade tagatisel endale täiendavat kapitali:
ECONX Federal Reserve Board announces it is prepared to undertake a substantial expansion of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. The Federal Reserve Board announced that it is prepared to undertake a substantial expansion of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The expansion could increase the size of the TALF to as much as $1 trillion and could broaden the eligible collateral to encompass other types of newly issued AAA-rated asset-backed securities, such as commercial mortgage-backed securities, private-label residential mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-backed securities. An expansion of the TALF would be supported by the provision by the Treasury of additional funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The Board's objective in expanding the TALF would be to provide additional assistance to financial markets and institutions in meeting the credit needs of households and businesses and thus to support overall economic growth in the current period of severe financial strains. Decisions concerning the expansion of the TALF, which will be made in consultation with the Treasury Department, will draw on initial experience in administering the program and the Board's assessment of the likely effectiveness of possible enhancements to the program in advancing its broad economic goals. Under the current specification of the TALF, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will lend to eligible owners of certain AAA-rated asset-backed securities (ABS). The Federal Reserve had previously announced that it would accept AAA-rated asset-backed securities backed by newly and recently originated auto loans, credit card loans, student loans, and SBA-guaranteed small business loans as collateral for TALF loans. The date that the TALF will commence operations will be announced later this month.
ECONX Federal Reserve Board announces it is prepared to undertake a substantial expansion of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. The Federal Reserve Board announced that it is prepared to undertake a substantial expansion of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). The expansion could increase the size of the TALF to as much as $1 trillion and could broaden the eligible collateral to encompass other types of newly issued AAA-rated asset-backed securities, such as commercial mortgage-backed securities, private-label residential mortgage-backed securities, and other asset-backed securities. An expansion of the TALF would be supported by the provision by the Treasury of additional funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The Board's objective in expanding the TALF would be to provide additional assistance to financial markets and institutions in meeting the credit needs of households and businesses and thus to support overall economic growth in the current period of severe financial strains. Decisions concerning the expansion of the TALF, which will be made in consultation with the Treasury Department, will draw on initial experience in administering the program and the Board's assessment of the likely effectiveness of possible enhancements to the program in advancing its broad economic goals. Under the current specification of the TALF, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will lend to eligible owners of certain AAA-rated asset-backed securities (ABS). The Federal Reserve had previously announced that it would accept AAA-rated asset-backed securities backed by newly and recently originated auto loans, credit card loans, student loans, and SBA-guaranteed small business loans as collateral for TALF loans. The date that the TALF will commence operations will be announced later this month.
S&P500 juba üle 2% punases.
US.Treasury's Geithner says will adapt financial rescue program as conditions change; says financial strategy 'will cost money, involve risk and take time.
US.Treasury's Geithner says will adapt financial rescue program as conditions change; says financial strategy 'will cost money, involve risk and take time.
äkki algataks uue foorumi ? Obama Poll oleks nimi.
Iga kord, kui Obama või mõni tema top gun sõna võtab ( seda nii majanduspoliitikas kui ka välispoliitikas) reageerib Mr. Turg
Täna näiteks sügavas punases pärast eilset kõnet ilma muude makrouudisteta.
Pärast oleks tagantjärele huvitav vaadata milestone, kuidas reaktsioon oli ?
Iga kord, kui Obama või mõni tema top gun sõna võtab ( seda nii majanduspoliitikas kui ka välispoliitikas) reageerib Mr. Turg
Täna näiteks sügavas punases pärast eilset kõnet ilma muude makrouudisteta.
Pärast oleks tagantjärele huvitav vaadata milestone, kuidas reaktsioon oli ?
1 päevaga tehakse see bullshit ralli tasa
Tundub, et turg reageerib libertaanliku majandusteooria ennustuste kohaselt: kui USA Senat lükkas esimesel korral abipaketi tagasi, siis oli turul selle peale mäletatavasti suur ralli, kui Obama tuleb majandusele „appi”, siis on tulemuseks suur kukkumine...
Nagu ütles Reagan, "Government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem."
Nagu ütles Reagan, "Government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem."
Ka nafta on korralikus miinuses, hommikusest +5% jäi järgi ligi sama suur miinus, märtsi futuur lõpetas $37.55 juures.
Võimas ja efektne etteaste karudelt. Pea 5% langust etteaimatava teema pealt võtta :O
Hämmastama võtab küll, mida imelist siis ülesostjate poolt oodati päästeplaanist, et väljaöeldu sellist pettumust valmistas ...
Hämmastama võtab küll, mida imelist siis ülesostjate poolt oodati päästeplaanist, et väljaöeldu sellist pettumust valmistas ...
Ülereageering, homme finants tõusus, mina panustan FASi peale. FAZ õnnelikult 50 ga müüdud.