Finants hakkab kergelt ära vajuma WFC,MS,BK,JPM ja USB ka punasesse jõudnud.
Mis BAsse puutub, siis mind on alati muigama pannud, kui kõigepealt räägitakse umbmääraselt "võiks positiivselt mõjuda" ja siis hiljem nenditakse konkreetselt "idee töötas". Briefing.com tegelased haibivad sageli asju sarnaselt, vaikides maha juhtumid, kus ideed oleks jõhkra lossi toonud. ;)
Umbmäärasel positiivsel jutul (pole just raske arvata, et Airbusi loss on BA gain ning BA oligi sel hetkel juba kõvasti üle turu gappinud) ja konkreetsel ideel aktsiat hoolimata sest gapist osta on ikka vaks vahet sees.
No offence kellegi suhtes, lihtsalt kui teinekord on ümmarguse jutu asemel konkreetsem, on selle tagajärgi ka huvitavam jälgida.
Umbmäärasel positiivsel jutul (pole just raske arvata, et Airbusi loss on BA gain ning BA oligi sel hetkel juba kõvasti üle turu gappinud) ja konkreetsel ideel aktsiat hoolimata sest gapist osta on ikka vaks vahet sees.
No offence kellegi suhtes, lihtsalt kui teinekord on ümmarguse jutu asemel konkreetsem, on selle tagajärgi ka huvitavam jälgida.
QQQQ avanes eile üles 1.0%, SPY 1.2% ning IWM 2.4% ja nende kõrval siis BA 1.55% - ehk kõvasti üle turu gappimisest oli minu arvates neilt tasemetelt asi kaugel. Aga kriitika omaks võetud - loomulikult rohkem konkreetsust pooldan minagi.
Varem Merrill Lynch'is töötanud, kuid nüüd Gluskin Sheffis leiba teeniv David Rosenberg taas mõtteid avaldamas. Jutt on üsna pikk, seega kopeerin vaid mõned mahlakamad lõigud:
"As everyone gazes at the 200-day moving average being taken out for the first time in 18 months, we are still wondering (see below) what the omen was yesterday from the fact that the VIX index, for the first time in at least seven years, rose alongside a 2%+ performance in the S&P 500 (normally, the VIX index declines between 10% and 20% on such a rally)."
"Emerging markets in general can hardly be described as cheap as they trade at 43x earnings, but nothing really stands out as being undervalued right now."
"Inflation expectations are getting way ahead of themselves — the 5-year/5-year breakeven levels in the TIPS market are now at 2.4% (above the average of the past five years — you would think we’d be staring at a fully employed economy right in the face)."
"The U.K. gets its credit outlook downgraded, and its currency soars and its bond market vastly outperforms Treasuries. Welcome to silly season. The 2s-10s curve is back at 275bps, a record steepness, and never before has a curve this steep been sustainable — it will flatten, the question is how."
"The futures market, without perhaps understanding what history teaches us about the stance of monetary policy following a credit collapse, which is to keep rates to the floor for, oh, about a decade, has gone ahead and priced in no fewer than three Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months. Then again, it’s the same futures strip that started to price out the easing cycle in late 2007 and price in Fed tightening this time last year. This is what opportunities are made of."
"As everyone gazes at the 200-day moving average being taken out for the first time in 18 months, we are still wondering (see below) what the omen was yesterday from the fact that the VIX index, for the first time in at least seven years, rose alongside a 2%+ performance in the S&P 500 (normally, the VIX index declines between 10% and 20% on such a rally)."
"Emerging markets in general can hardly be described as cheap as they trade at 43x earnings, but nothing really stands out as being undervalued right now."
"Inflation expectations are getting way ahead of themselves — the 5-year/5-year breakeven levels in the TIPS market are now at 2.4% (above the average of the past five years — you would think we’d be staring at a fully employed economy right in the face)."
"The U.K. gets its credit outlook downgraded, and its currency soars and its bond market vastly outperforms Treasuries. Welcome to silly season. The 2s-10s curve is back at 275bps, a record steepness, and never before has a curve this steep been sustainable — it will flatten, the question is how."
"The futures market, without perhaps understanding what history teaches us about the stance of monetary policy following a credit collapse, which is to keep rates to the floor for, oh, about a decade, has gone ahead and priced in no fewer than three Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months. Then again, it’s the same futures strip that started to price out the easing cycle in late 2007 and price in Fed tightening this time last year. This is what opportunities are made of."