In New York, gold for April delivery rallied to an 18-month
high of $299.80 an ounce as investors -- nervous after days of
concerns about corporate accounting irregularities -- sought a
safe haven.
Kuidas liikumist ära kasutada?
Kuld üle 300
Black Box Forecasts: "Six hours ahead of its time"
Rick Ackerman
for Wednesday February 6, 2002
Card-House of Morgan
TRADING NOTES: It is hardly a coincidence that bullion prices zoomed to $300 on the day that J.P. Morgan Chase shares came crashing through their September lows. As I wrote here the other day, Morgan's problems could eventually dwarf those of Enron. They are bound up together right now, to the extent Morgan -- the largest lender in the world to U.S. firms -- supposedly has Enron exposure that exceeds $2.3 billion. However, as my recent note here suggested, the banking giant's risk in the derivatives markets could be considerably higher, since it holds leveraged debt paper with a notional value exceeding $30 trillion. You'd think things could not get much scarier than that, but on Tuesday -- with gold prices soaring -- they did. As it happens, Morgan is a big player in the gold market, mostly by way of bullion loans that work best when gold prices are weak. Those of you who went to the article I flagged last week by DeTocqueville Fund's John Hathaway will already know this. But for those of you who did not, here is the salient part of it concerning J.P. Morgan Chase:
The concentration of gold derivatives in the hands of one institution cannot be comforting to central bankers who had originally lent their gold reserves to a wide array of bullion dealers. JP Morgan Chase, also a major counter party to Enron in a variety of energy derivatives, held 80% of the gold derivatives reported by the OCC (Office of Controller and Currency) as of 9/30/01. Although total gold derivatives reported to the OCC have declined from the peak levels of $87.6 billion at year-end 1999, JP Morgan held only 40% of the total that time, which was prior to the merger with Chase. The decline in OCC-reported gold derivatives from the 1999 year end peak is most likely due to an offloading of positions to a non-OCC reporting entity such as Enron, an Enron-like organization, or a foreign bank. Now that many have abandoned the gold derivatives trade, it appears that JP Morgan Chase has become the rear guard to defend the derivatives universe against higher gold prices.
A "rear-guard" defense? If so, Da Boyz will have their hands full today, since gold's assault on $300 during yesterday's (Tuesday's) session hardly looked like it was going to subside quietly overnight. I had projected a short-term target for the April Comex gold contract in the range 305-306, but practically speaking, anything could happen. Morgan has friends in high places, as we all know, and they have proven many times in the past that they have both the resolve and the muscle to keep the gold price from drifting upwards of $300. Sooner or later, though, even more powerful forces than Morgan and its friends were bound to prevail.
Will it be this week?
Stay tuned.
Rick Ackerman
for Wednesday February 6, 2002
Card-House of Morgan
TRADING NOTES: It is hardly a coincidence that bullion prices zoomed to $300 on the day that J.P. Morgan Chase shares came crashing through their September lows. As I wrote here the other day, Morgan's problems could eventually dwarf those of Enron. They are bound up together right now, to the extent Morgan -- the largest lender in the world to U.S. firms -- supposedly has Enron exposure that exceeds $2.3 billion. However, as my recent note here suggested, the banking giant's risk in the derivatives markets could be considerably higher, since it holds leveraged debt paper with a notional value exceeding $30 trillion. You'd think things could not get much scarier than that, but on Tuesday -- with gold prices soaring -- they did. As it happens, Morgan is a big player in the gold market, mostly by way of bullion loans that work best when gold prices are weak. Those of you who went to the article I flagged last week by DeTocqueville Fund's John Hathaway will already know this. But for those of you who did not, here is the salient part of it concerning J.P. Morgan Chase:
The concentration of gold derivatives in the hands of one institution cannot be comforting to central bankers who had originally lent their gold reserves to a wide array of bullion dealers. JP Morgan Chase, also a major counter party to Enron in a variety of energy derivatives, held 80% of the gold derivatives reported by the OCC (Office of Controller and Currency) as of 9/30/01. Although total gold derivatives reported to the OCC have declined from the peak levels of $87.6 billion at year-end 1999, JP Morgan held only 40% of the total that time, which was prior to the merger with Chase. The decline in OCC-reported gold derivatives from the 1999 year end peak is most likely due to an offloading of positions to a non-OCC reporting entity such as Enron, an Enron-like organization, or a foreign bank. Now that many have abandoned the gold derivatives trade, it appears that JP Morgan Chase has become the rear guard to defend the derivatives universe against higher gold prices.
A "rear-guard" defense? If so, Da Boyz will have their hands full today, since gold's assault on $300 during yesterday's (Tuesday's) session hardly looked like it was going to subside quietly overnight. I had projected a short-term target for the April Comex gold contract in the range 305-306, but practically speaking, anything could happen. Morgan has friends in high places, as we all know, and they have proven many times in the past that they have both the resolve and the muscle to keep the gold price from drifting upwards of $300. Sooner or later, though, even more powerful forces than Morgan and its friends were bound to prevail.
Will it be this week?
Stay tuned.
Tere,
siin foorumist esimest korda, loodan et ei kupatata algajate juurde. Tegelen ise igapäevaselt kullaga kaubeldes, kuid kulla-firmade aktsiatega pole varem tegelenud. Lugesin hiljuti üht arvamust nende aktsiate kohta, mis proffid arvavad nende spekulatsioonide õigsuse kohta:
By Thom Calandra
www.CBS.MarketWatch.com
Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2002
...
Yet gold's optimists, having waited almost six years
for a sustained rally in bullion prices, are not about to
give up. Some see the price of the metal making $20
and $30 daily moves. As Franco-Nevada co-founder
Pierre Lassonde explained to me, each $10 rise in gold's
price magnifies an established mining company's pretax
cash flow.
"If gold goes to $350 an ounce, pre-tax cash flow (for
Newmont) would be about $1.6 billion, or $4 a share
on a pro-forma basis. So the stock would have to go
between $50 and $60, based on 12 times cash flow,"
Lassonde says. Cash flow in 2001 for Newmont was
$381 million, or $1.95 a share. Newmont shares sell for
$25 on the New York Stock Exchange.
...
Kullaputuk
siin foorumist esimest korda, loodan et ei kupatata algajate juurde. Tegelen ise igapäevaselt kullaga kaubeldes, kuid kulla-firmade aktsiatega pole varem tegelenud. Lugesin hiljuti üht arvamust nende aktsiate kohta, mis proffid arvavad nende spekulatsioonide õigsuse kohta:
By Thom Calandra
www.CBS.MarketWatch.com
Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2002
...
Yet gold's optimists, having waited almost six years
for a sustained rally in bullion prices, are not about to
give up. Some see the price of the metal making $20
and $30 daily moves. As Franco-Nevada co-founder
Pierre Lassonde explained to me, each $10 rise in gold's
price magnifies an established mining company's pretax
cash flow.
"If gold goes to $350 an ounce, pre-tax cash flow (for
Newmont) would be about $1.6 billion, or $4 a share
on a pro-forma basis. So the stock would have to go
between $50 and $60, based on 12 times cash flow,"
Lassonde says. Cash flow in 2001 for Newmont was
$381 million, or $1.95 a share. Newmont shares sell for
$25 on the New York Stock Exchange.
...
Kullaputuk
kired JP Morgani ümber ei vaibu. Kus suitsu sel tuld?
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton010702.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/hamilton010702.html
usa-st eestile kuldaktsia...
Olete kuulnud sellisest varade klassifitseerimisest: paper assets(aktsiad ja võlakirjad) ja hard assets(nagu kinnisvara,nafta,kuld)
US dollari nõrgenemine viib investorite fookuse paper assetitelt hard assetitele väidavad mõned spetsialistid:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?
source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
&guid=%7BFF41A48B%2D2717%2D4B2E%2D952F%2DD2CF31604781%7D
Eile lõpetas kuld 312usd tasemel, nii kallis oli kullaunts viimati 99 aasta oktoobris
US dollari nõrgenemine viib investorite fookuse paper assetitelt hard assetitele väidavad mõned spetsialistid:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?
source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
&guid=%7BFF41A48B%2D2717%2D4B2E%2D952F%2DD2CF31604781%7D
Eile lõpetas kuld 312usd tasemel, nii kallis oli kullaunts viimati 99 aasta oktoobris
Kullaaktsiajte jälgijatele:
GOLD kaupleb t'nasest NYSEl GFI tähistuse all
GOLD kaupleb t'nasest NYSEl GFI tähistuse all
When Gold Works
By James J. Cramer
Gold's a loser. I have been saying that for 15 years. That has been right for 15 years. Until the threats on civilization. Because the one thing we know is that gold will still be worth something after any particular nation is destroyed, and people are now hedging their bets against that grim prospect.
I have been taught that you bought gold when inflation roared, and it is certainly not roaring.
I have been taught that you bought gold as a hedge against inflation in paper assets, and paper assets aren't inflating.
But I was also taught that gold works in the event of nuclear war. Sure enough, that's the new parameter and it can't be denied post 9/11, especially given the amount of scare warnings that we have been receiving since it came out that we may have known something about 9/11. Talk about a cruel diversion from that "when do we know" stuff.
I know that all I hear about when I am interviewed these days is gold. I also know that gold stocks were the best-performing stocks in the first quarter and if they don't come down here they will be the best in the second one, too.
I also know that the dollar's decline is fueling the gold rise.
What do you do? I am not buying gold shares. But if there were ever a time when I could at least understand why gold works, it would be now.
There is only one problem: If the main reason people are buying gold plays out, will you really give a %#$@ about your money?
I didn't think so.
By James J. Cramer
Gold's a loser. I have been saying that for 15 years. That has been right for 15 years. Until the threats on civilization. Because the one thing we know is that gold will still be worth something after any particular nation is destroyed, and people are now hedging their bets against that grim prospect.
I have been taught that you bought gold when inflation roared, and it is certainly not roaring.
I have been taught that you bought gold as a hedge against inflation in paper assets, and paper assets aren't inflating.
But I was also taught that gold works in the event of nuclear war. Sure enough, that's the new parameter and it can't be denied post 9/11, especially given the amount of scare warnings that we have been receiving since it came out that we may have known something about 9/11. Talk about a cruel diversion from that "when do we know" stuff.
I know that all I hear about when I am interviewed these days is gold. I also know that gold stocks were the best-performing stocks in the first quarter and if they don't come down here they will be the best in the second one, too.
I also know that the dollar's decline is fueling the gold rise.
What do you do? I am not buying gold shares. But if there were ever a time when I could at least understand why gold works, it would be now.
There is only one problem: If the main reason people are buying gold plays out, will you really give a %#$@ about your money?
I didn't think so.
Gold spiking on short squeeze
Gold is now up $4.95 to $320.90/ounce; we're hearing that a short squeeze is boosting the metal today. The XAU is up 2.4% and gold stocks are moving higher once again: NEM +0.47, ABX +0.42, AU +0.91, GG +0.95, PDG +0.56.
Gold is now up $4.95 to $320.90/ounce; we're hearing that a short squeeze is boosting the metal today. The XAU is up 2.4% and gold stocks are moving higher once again: NEM +0.47, ABX +0.42, AU +0.91, GG +0.95, PDG +0.56.
Uuendan vahepeal muudetud asukohaga linki 2001 a. kirjutatud kullakommentaarile. Tänane FT on artiklis Precious mettle üpris palju kulda puudutavaid teemasid käsitlenud, soovitan lugeda!