Apple (AAPL)

First Look: iPhone 5s
E24: Kuldse iPhone 5 hinnad mustal turul on hullumeelsed
Võimalik, et Apple on pärast 6 aastat China Mobile’iga kestnud läbirääkimisi lõpuks kuskile jõudmas/jõudnud. Eile õhtul oli China Mobile’i tütarettevõtte kodulehel Suzhou’s üleval pilt Apple'i toodetega (vaata siit) ja võimalus tooteid ette tellida.

China Mobile’il on 740 miljonit klienti, kes täna Apple’i tooteid kasutada ei saa. Kui diil ära tehakse, on täiendav müügipotentsiaal väga suur. Hetkel käivad jutud, et launch võib tulla juba 18. detsembril.
@Carl_C_Icahn tweet:

"Gave $AAPL notice we'll be making a precatory proposal to call for vote to increase buyback program, although not at $150 billion level."
Ainult 50B tahtis
Oluline artikkel Apple'ist ja China Mobile'ist. Gene Munster räägib selle artikli video osas selle koostöö põhjustest ja võimalikust mõjust Apple’ile. Gene ütleb, et ca 800 mln China Mobile’i kasutajast kasutab 3G’d 170 mln ja ta usub, et konservatiivselt hinnates 10% neist võiksid hakata kasutama Apple’i telefone ehk siis ca 15-20 mln (viimasel fiskaalaastal müüs Apple kokku 150 mln iPhone’i). See lisaks Gene’i hinnangul Wall Streeti analüütikute kasumiprognoosidele juba järgmisel aastal keskmiselt 5%.

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- China Mobile won state approval to start commercial service on the world’s largest fourth-generation wireless network, clearing a key hurdle to offering Apple’s iPhone to its 759 million subscribers. Piper Jaffray Senior Research Analyst Gene Munster speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg West." (Source: Bloomberg). The world’s biggest phone company and two smaller domestic carriers received 4G licenses yesterday from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

Aktsia on selle peale tõusnud esmaspäeva sulgumishinna $552 pealt praegu $575 peale, kuid pikaajaline potentsiaal, mida see koostöö endaga kaasa võib tuua, jätab ülespoole liikumiseks minu arust veel palju ruumi, eriti arvestades aktsia odavat hinnataset.
Apple'i languse korrektsiooniks sobis vahemik 566-577. Septembris alanud tõusu tipp võiks olla 577.53, kui see on sama suur kui eelmine. Tänasel eelturul on puudu vaid mõned kümnendikud. Eilse päeva candlestick lubaks ka nagu pööret. Vähemalt pikk olles tasuks ettevaatlik olla. Tipud tehakse üldjuhul alati siis kui viimanegi karu on pulliks hakanud (ka siin on eespool valdavalt positiivne info).
Apple ja China Mobile lõpuks kinnitasid koostöö

CHINA MOBILE TO START SELLING IPHONE 5S, IPHONE 5C FROM JAN. 17
Et tu, Apple? - Apple takes a hit as iPhone disappoints (505.45 Down 45.05 (8.18%))
Inimesed on Õunast väsinud. Kes tahab osta nutitelefoni Carl Icahn'ilt...Pigem Ikoon'ilt Bill Gates.
Eilne analüüsimajade reaktsioon: kõik peale Raymond J (strong buy -> outperform, tgt $700 -> $550) kordasid oma soovitust.

RBC Capital Markets: outperform, tgt 590
Jefferies: buy, tgt 625
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co: outperform, tgt 575
Raymond James: outperform, tgt 550
Nomura: neutral, tgt 545
JMP Securities: market perform, no tgt
Joel Kukemelk

Aktsia on selle peale tõusnud esmaspäeva sulgumishinna $552 pealt praegu $575 peale, kuid pikaajaline potentsiaal, mida see koostöö endaga kaasa võib tuua, jätab ülespoole liikumiseks minu arust veel palju ruumi, eriti arvestades aktsia odavat hinnataset.


Loodame, et keegi selle jutu peale ostma ei tormanud :)

Isegi kui tormasid,siis seda enam on nüüd kasvuruumi:)
Apple ja Beatsi Jimmy lovine on abielu, mis on sõlmitud taevas...ta on täpselt selline värvikas hull, mis Applest peale Stevet puudu on. Mul oli korraks juba hirm, et Applest saab IBM aga tundub, et ehk siiski suudavad oma mässumeelsete "Julge erineda" juurte juurde tagasi tulla.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaxZ8XsN0xo
AAPL kaupleb 7 for 1 spliti järgselt 92 USD tasemel.
Apple eilse tooteesitluse järel mõnede analüüsimajade kommentaarid:

UBS (buy, PT $115)
* Solid announcement paves way for accelerating rev. growth
* Expectations were close to reality; look for strong upgrade cycle
* Apple “made strides” in addressing 40% of smartphone mkt it has been missing, and expanding ecosystem with Apple Watch and Pay
* Battery life of iPhone 6 Plus is superior at 24 hours talk time, which could boost high-end demand
* Don’t expect substantial new rev. stream from Apple Pay

PIPER JAFFRAY (overweight, PT $120)
* Apple Pay was “star of the show”; service is broader offering than expected, may allow Apple to become more “meaningful” participant in consumer Internet services that could improve earnings over time
* New iPhones and watch delivered on high expectations

BARCLAYS (overweight/neutral, PT $110)
* Believes AAPL “just reshaped” the payments industry; service is “significant” catalyst to iPhone ests. through 2015
* Impressed with larger screen sizes and improvements on watch relative to competition
* AAPL’s pricing of new products strikes “fine balance” of protecting margins while maintaining prices relatively close to levels consumers have historically been comfortable paying

CITI
* More merchants lined up to participate in Apple Pay than originally anticipated; service may force retailers to upgrade point-of-sale terminals more rapidly
* Unexpected that Apple won’t collect consumer transaction data


BERNSTEIN (outperform, PT $108)
* New iPhones very much in line with expectations; China absent from Apple’s initial country rollout, hinting at supply constraints relative to last yr’s release
* Apple raised price by $100 on its 5.5-inch model, while retaining price on 4.7-inch device, raising concern whether it can sustain gross margins in face of higher bills of materials for both devices
* Sees “modest” risk to iPad Mini sales from introduction of iPhone 6 Plus
* Apple Watch positioning more up-mkt than expected, limiting its initial addressable mkt; device aesthetically attractive with “very innovative” user interface; Bernstein “struggles” with fact that most of the Watch’s functionality is dependent on iPhone presence
* IPhone upgrade cycle will likely be more pronounced over next yr; current consensus ests. too low, upward revisions likely
* Stk remains attractively valued on absolute basis and vs peers

RBC (outperform, PT $110)
* New iPhones should ensure not just one of the strongest iPhone cycles but very likely the most profitable one, as AAPL will see “material” expansion of ASPs with iPhone 6
* While AAPL shrs may experience near-term pressure given historical underperformance post-launch, stk could gain once weekend sales numbers, initial demand for iPhones become clear
* “Impressed” with Apple Watch capabilities; device should act as growth driver in CY15
* AAPL valuation “materially sub-par” to its anticipated long-term revenue and EPS potential; current stk price creates attractive entry point for investors
Suurem osa analüüsimajadest on üsna soojalt vastu võtnud eile avalikustatud tooted, Pacific Crest ütleb, et priced in. Järgmine võimalik katalüsaator võiks olla iPhone'i esialgne tellimuste statistika (kui seda avaldatakse) ja esimese nädalavahetuse müük.

PACIFIC CREST (cuts to sector perform vs outperform, PT $100)
* “Impressed” by new iPhones; potential from these devices largely priced into stk at current levels
* Sales to new iPhone users will decline beyond iPhone 6, which could prevent iPhone unit growth in F2016 and beyond
* Apple Watch fails to suprise; its need for phone tethering, short battery life, lack of compelling features for those who don’t want a watch will limit mkt
* While Apple Pay adds to stickiness of the ecosystem, this service is not likely to add material profit
* Downgrades on lack of “massive new profit drivers”
Midagi kukub neile ka.
Apple Said to Reap Fees From Banks in New Payment System
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/apple-said-to-reap-fees-from-banks-in-new-payment-system.html
uute iPhone mudelite tellimused esimese 24h tunni jooksul üle 4 miljoni. võrdluseks müüdi iPhone 5 mudelit 2012.a esimese 24hga üle 2 mln

APPLE PRE-ORDERS FOR IPHONE 6, IPHONE 6 PLUS TOP 4M 1ST 24