Ettevõtte turuväärtus pärast alandatud valuatsiooni oleks baas-stsenaariumi korral 29 269 722.30 EUR:
Ettevõte on avaldanud üsna vähe tulevikuprognoose, kuid mõned prognoosid on siiski võimalik leida.
Lk. 91 on tuleviku investeerimisprogrammi ülevaade ja sealt on võimalik leida revenue ja EBITDA prognoosid lähiaastateks:
Investment phase (IV)
As the next and immediate step that the Group plans to finance with the proceeds of this IPO – investment
phase (IV), the Group is planning to construct and equip two new barns for laying hens (similar to the second
and third hen houses, that the Group is already running since 2020 and 2021 respectively). Each will
accommodate an additional 125 000 laying hens, bringing cumulative production capacity from five hen houses
up to possible 119 million eggs per year in 2024 and up to possible 180 million eggs per year in 2025.
In the framework of investment phase (IV), the Group also intends to launch the first pullet-raising / breeding
house in Preiļi city. Currently, the Group relies on acquiring pullets from external suppliers, which represents
various operational challenges. By building a pullet house and commence breeding its own pullets by
purchasing 1-day-old chicks from recognized hatcheries, the Group will be able to meet the needs of three out
of five barns, reducing operational risks and improving hen welfare. The Group’s long-term goal is to produce
over 1.3 million pullets per year and sell a part of them to third parties, creating an additional revenue stream.
To ensure economic viability, it is essential to maintain three barns due to the specific production cycle of
laying hens. Therefore, since the Group has reached a continuous production cycle, the fixed cost would not
increase in proportion to the egg volume growth, and it would allow to move towards higher profitability with
each next million of eggs produced. In line with its strategy, envisaged proceeds of IPO and external financing support, this could allow to increase the adjusted EBITDA of the Group from EUR 4.1 million in 2023 up to EUR 4.6 million in 2024 and EUR 8.5 million in 2025 respectively, whereas the Group’s revenue to grow from EUR 14.7 million in 2023 up to EUR 16.7 million in 2024 and EUR 25.6 million in 2025 (for further information on the anticipated IPO proceeds and possible external financing means please refer to Section 5 “Reasons for the Offering and Use of Proceeds” of this Prospectus).
Under investment phase (IV), the Group also envisages to expand the sorting facility. Currently, hens lay
around 7 million - 10 million eggs per month in three barns, depending on the laying cycle. With five barns
the output would increase up to 18 million eggs per month, depending on the laying cycle.
During investment phase (IV) the Group will also acquire egg product equipment. In the future, the Group
aims to become an integrated egg product producer, striving for zero waste production of egg products.
The above-described investments will be made in accordance with the development strategy of the Group and
subject to market circumstances at the time. The manner and priority order in which the investments are used,
may differ from the plan assumed in this Section of the Prospectus, depending on the market conditions,
Group’s operations and regulatory environment in the upcoming years.
The forecasts and estimates included in this Section have been compiled and prepared on basis which is
comparable with the historical financial information and consistent with the Latvian Accounting Principles.
Further information on the split of amounts and use of net proceeds from the Offering with respect to financing
of fourth and fifth laying hen barn, warehouse and sorting facility and egg processing equipment is available
in Section 5 “Reasons for Offering and Use of Proceeds”.
Koos olemasolevate numbritega ja tulevikuprognoosidega näeks P/S ja P/E prognoos välja järgmine:
Ettevõtte Forward P/S oleks esialgse IPO valuatsiooni korral baas-stsenaariumis olnud:
2021: 9,90x
2022: 3,47x
2023*: 2,65x
2024*: 2,34x
2025*: 1,52x
Alandatud valuatsiooni korral on P/S koos prognoosidega aga:
2021: 7,43x
2022: 2,61x
2023*: 1,99x
2024*: 1,75x
2025*: 1,14x
Ettevõtte Forward P/E oleks esialgse IPO valuatsiooni korral baas-stsenaariumis olnud:
2021: 288,36
2022: 117,83
2023*: 23,13
2024*: 20,36
2025*: 13,28
Alandatud valuatsiooni korral on P/E koos prognoosidega aga:
2021: 216,38x
2022: 88,42x
2023*: 17,36x
2024*: 15,28x
2025*: 9,97x
Eelnevast tabelist on 2021 ja 2022 numbrid (Revenue, EBITDA, Gross Profit ja Net Profit) ettevõtte poolt ette antud, ning samuti 2023 aasta 6 kuu tulemused Revenue, Gross Profit, Net Profit (vt nt. lk. 11, lk. 123 jne).
2023 aasta 6 kuu tulemuste põhjalt saab leida Gross profit margin ja net profit margin 2023 aasta esimese poole kohta(, mida kasutame üldistamiseks ka tuleviku tarbeks). Leiame, et GPM on 31.28% ja NPM on 11.47%. Neid samu numbreid, koos varasemalt leitud ettevõtte poolt antud Revenue ja EBITDA tulevikuprognoosides kasutades leiame Gross Profit ja Net Profit tulevikuperioodideks. Järgnevalt leiame juba P/S ja P/E.
NB 1! Kui 2023 aasta 6 kuu tulemused, eriti kasumi marginaalid on ebanormaalselt head, siis vastavalt tuleviku P/E on tegelikkuses kõrgem. P/E prognoos on mõjutatud ka ettevõtte müügitulu prognoosist, kui see on madalam, siis vastavalt väheneb ka kasum ja kallineb ka P/E.
NB 2! P/S prognoos sõltub ainult ettevõtte poolt antud müügitulu prognoosidest. Kui müügitulu ei täitu, siis vastavalt P/S on kallim.
Üldiselt kokkuvõttes võib järeldada, et järgmise (2024) ja ülejärgmise (2025) aasta P/E on vastavalt 15,28x ja 9.97x, ehk investorile kes ettevõtte narratiivi ja prognoose usub, üsna atraktiivne. Valuatsiooni alandamine on kordajad mõistliku(ma)ks teinud. Kui varasema kõrgema valuatsiooni korral oleks selle ja järgmise aasta P/E olnud mõlemal üle 20, siis uue madalama valuatsiooni korral on mõlema aasta P/E alla 20 (natuke üle 15).
Valuatsiooni alandamind alandas P/E-d ca 5 punkti.
See on postituse ja valuatsiooni alandamise põhisõnum.
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