Antud teemaga haakuv üks teine uudis (uues aknas).
TRE
NTES
Kohtumiseni 2007
2) ...
1) ...
Rohkem häid bette piiratud mõistusega pakkuda ei oska. Äkki see aasta joppab ja ohtralt kapitali pühitakse maakeralt minema. Everyone is too fucking rich.
Parim bet, kust laks tuleb:
USA kinnisvarahindade langus. Otseses seoses sealse tarbimise ja seega kogu maailmamajanduse olukorraga. Equity extraction on väidetavalt (vist economisti eri) juba pidurdunud seoses hindade tõusu peatumisega. Langus oleks põnevam. Kunagisest säästjate maast on saanud võlglaste maa. Ja nende kreeditoride nimes on "von" või silmad pilus.
Head uut globaalse finantskrahhi aastat!
Alati pessimistlik,
Suffiks
2. Tiritakse jälle paar kolm suurt eestlaste poolt tehtud finantspettust lagedale.
3. Tallinna kinnisvaraturg hakkab langema. Mida rohkem spekulandid hävivad seda kiiremini ka kukub kinnisvara hind.
Doug Kass on tulnud välja taas oma üllatustelistiga aastaks 2006. Soovitan lugeda. Tihtipeale ekstreemsed tähelepanekud võivad osutuda reaalsuseks : )
It's that time of the year again!
Every December, I borrow an idea created by Morgan Stanley's Byron Wien (who has left the sell-side to become the investment strategist at a Connecticut-based hedge fund) and prepare a list of 25 possible surprises for the following year.
Remember, my surprises are not intended to be predictions, but rather are intended to represent events that might have a reasonable chance of occurring despite the general perception of these events carrying very long odds. I call these "possible improbable" events!
I have long felt that developing a variant view (read: surprise) remains an integral part of differentiating one's investment returns. Mainstream and consensus expectations are just that, and, in most cases, are deeply imbedded in today's stock prices.
The real purpose of this endeavor was to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in some part based on outlier events -- with large payoffs. After all, Wall Street research is still very much convention and groupthink, despite the reforms over the past several years. If I succeed in making you think about outlier events, the exercise has been worthwhile.
I hope some of my surprises helped in framing investment themes during the year. Some of my surprises were on target last year (about one-fifth) though down from the prior two years -- nearly one-half of our surprises proved prescient in 2004 and about one-third in 2003.
In particular, the following actual events had a familiar ring for readers of my 2005 surprises.
- Two of our most accurate surprises related to markets and asset classes. Back a year ago, we posited that the Japanese Nikkei would be among the best performing markets in the world. Several emerging markets outperformed Japan, but Japan was probably the best performer among the more liquid international indices. In terms of asset classes, we suggested that the price of gold would briefly touch $575/ounce (it hit $540) and would be the best asset class extant. Indeed, few markets rivaled gold in 2005.
- We suggested that parts of Europe would sink into a recession in the second quarter; some did.
- One of our surprises was that Hank Greenberg would unexpectedly retire from AIG (AIG); he did so, though not voluntarily!
- We thought the AOL division would be sold (to either Marc Cuban or Warren Buffett); recently a 5% position was sold to Google (GOOG).
- Subscribers might recall our audacious expectation that crude (trading in December 2003 at around $25/barrel) would climb to over $50 in 2004; it did. By contrast, last year we suggested that Unocal shareholders would vote to be acquired by Chevron (CVX) and defeat Cnooc's (CEO) bid. Coincident with that vote, we anticipated crude would make a yearly high of $65/barrel (it briefly touched $70 thereafter), once again proving our surprise accurate and proving that markets make tops accompanied by good news.
- We envisioned a flattening in home prices in the late summer (and a buildup in inventory of unsold homes); this has transpired.
- Finally, we anticipated the amazing success of Jim "El Capitan" Cramer's "Mad Money" show on CNBC. We suggested the show would win a Peabody Award. Though that award has not yet been announced, who knows?
Here is the first part of my list of 25 possible surprises in 2006:
1. Anti-American rhetoric in South and Central America becomes kinetic in 2006 and has broad market and economic implications. A plethora of left-wing presidents (creating another anathema to the Bush administration) are elected in this volatile and important economic area of the world as elections of leaders in nine countries from Nicaragua to Chile are staged next year. Most importantly, with the recent election of Evo Morales in Bolivia, a projected victory of anti-American Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega, a surprisingly easy victory in Mexico of Andres Manuel Loez Obrador (an anti-President Vincente Fox candidate) coupled with more aggressive nationalistic moves by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez turn into an epidemic of anti-American policy. This new wave of socialism and left-wing presidents contributes to a series of moves to nationalize certain industries, and supply disruptions in certain countries in South America are destabilizing, resulting in much higher commodity prices during the year (including oil, natural gas, copper, tin and grain). The CRB Index approaches 375 (now at 326). Fears of stagflation befall economies and markets dependent on imports of goods from South America like the U.S. Crude climbs to over $80/barrel, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average bottoms at 9000-9250 during the early summer (and closes the year at the 10,000 level). Gold trades above $675/ounce sometime during the year.
2. Senate Judiciary Committee hearings on secret domestic wiretaps authorized by President Bush -- made without applying for a warrant from the court that handles sensitive national security issues -- find that the surveillance operation was far broader than admitted by the Administration. A special prosecutor begins an aggressive assault on the White House that results in Vice President Richard Cheney taking the fall for the Administration and resigning by midyear. The President's popularity plunges as memories of Watergate are resurrected and the Democratic party takes a large lead in preliminary Presidential polls. Condoleezza Rice is selected to replace Cheney as vice president.
3. The Federal Reserve, responding to the appearance of continued economic strength in fourth quarter 2005 and in January 2006, continues to take the federal funds rate higher, just as the economy is about to sour. Bernanke pushes for and proceeds with a 50-basis-point increase in his first meeting as chairman of the Fed. (It turns out to be the last rate change over the balance of 2006.) As the Fed and ECB continue tightening and the BOJ ends its easing, bond yields initially rise early in 2006, but in the second half of the year, the 10-year U.S. note's yield dips to 3.65% as the market's focus moves toward potential rate cuts by the Fed and a potential recession in late 2006, early 2007.
4. By early second quarter 2006, the consumption binge of the last decade comes to an abrupt halt. Retail sales turn negative as the American consumer (the straw that has stirred the drink of the world economies) folds like a cheap suit and several former high-flying specialty retailers -- such as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and so forth -- exhibit surprisingly poor same-store sales. Weakness in personal consumption is exacerbated by many of the external shocks discussed in this piece: rising commodity prices, lower home prices (leading to weakening job creation and the lost ability to extract equity), stretched affordability of the first-time and repeat home buyer to purchase a new home, the absence of personal savings (and a safety net), rising higher debt service requirements (proliferation and reset of floating-rate and interest-only loans), changes in credit card payment requirements, etc.
5. Though none are major, there are a number of small-scale terrorist acts in the U.S. However, a failed attempt to contaminate a major region of the U.S.'s water supply serves to exacerbate already high agricultural product prices (in large measure reflecting South America's instability) to record levels creating another inflationary scare.
6. After the 50-basis-point increase in the fed funds rate, stocks drop abruptly (and then quickly rally back) after an uneventful January. However, the conspicuous slowdown in retail sales hits equities again, and stocks only recover half of those losses. The rise in commodity prices and the CRB Index (impacted by political unrest in South and Central America and a ramp in agricultural prices caused by a terrorist act) bring the DJIA down to the 9000-9250 level in early summer, where it settles in for the balance of the year, though another sharp year-end rally brings the DJIA back to about 10,000 by New Year. Volatility during this period rises dramatically as the S&P 500 Index routinely has 2% daily moves, acting more like a commodity than a stock index. Mutual fund inflows drop precipitously.
7. With confidence in the markets and economies deteriorating, merger and acquisition activity suddenly slows to a crawl. One large private equity firm returns over $5 billion to its investors.
8. 2006's best performing equity strategy is short selling; the worst is aggressive growth (long-only). The junk bond market records its worst performance in over a decade and underperforms almost every asset class in 2006. The cable stocks, old media and high yielding stocks (like regional bell operating companies) are among the best sectors next year. General Motors (GM) muddles through and ends the year with a gain of 25% (leading all other components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) after Steve Miller (with financial assistance and the managerial support of Wilbur Ross) takes over the helm in a broad management shakeup. Coca-Cola (KO) is a close second (buoyed by more stock purchases by Warren Buffett), and Verizon (VZ) is the third-best performing member of that index. On the downside, the popularity of the exchanges (Chicago Mercantile, International Securities Exchange, Nasdaq Stock Market Inc., Chicago Board of Trade, etc.) wanes, and the stocks lead most sectors to the downside in 2006.
9. Corporate profits for 2006 are flat, decelerating sharply from the 7% increase recorded in first quarter 2006.
10. The U.S. dollar's strong momentum and new paradigm bullishness in 2005 yields to weakness in 2006. As trade tensions mount with China (which in turn fails to ante up on its continued financing of U.S. consumption), inflation abruptly rises (within the context of supply disruptions), and the focus comes back to the U.S. current account deficit (reaching $900 billion or 6.9% of GDP in 2006) and a stagnating economy as a consequence of reduced confidence in the presidency. The surge in tax revenues, which produced a reduction in the federal deficit, is reversed as tax revenue growth normalizes back toward that of nominal GDP subsequent to the record breaking upswing in 2005. Contributing to an eroding deficit are the Medicare prescription drug plan, spending on unmet infrastructure needs, the Homeland Investment Act (which encouraged repatriation of foreign profits to be taxed at low rates), hurricane rebuilding efforts, a pickup in bonuses (and other nonstandard income) and the normalization of individual nonwithheld and corporate taxes (both having previously benefited from a rising stock market and an increase in the value of homes, which served to increase capital gain realizations).
11. 2006 brings upon two large-scale Long Term Capital-like failures (but not in U.S.-based institutions) -- two in Asia and one in Europe -- precipitated by an astonishingly large derivative loss that two major U.S. and several overseas money center banks are partially on the hook for.
12. A computer hacker launches a successful attack on a widely used open-source application of the Internet (which extends into closed, proprietary sites) causing chaos and turmoil over a month-long period at Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), eBay (EBAY), Yahoo! (YHOO), AOL and many other sites. The Internet Holders Index drops by 20% in two weeks.
13. Google (GOOG) faces numerous legal and competitive challenges in 2006. Its leadership in search is threatened not by Microsoft (MSFT) or Yahoo!, but by a cadre of high-profile engineers within the company itself who embark on their own search mission. The new competitive player is taken public by Goldman Sachs (GS) and has an instant valuation in excess of $25 billion after its IPO. Google's shares briefly touch $200/share during the year as competition among the older and the new entities intensifies. Further hurting Google will be an attempt by the Federal Communications Commission to extend the definition of decency laws to the Internet and a series of adverse court rulings in the Google Book Search case, in a patent issue that is brought up in the courts by content providers and in a major privacy scandal involving the U.S. government. Most importantly, a suit is instituted that claims Google has become a Web monopoly and is violating U.S. antitrust law. Microsoft's Vista product is more successful than most expect. It experiences a surprising gain of 10 points of search share after hiring two senior Google engineers who introduce massive changes to the product, like eliminating clutter from its homepage. A high-profile, content-rich media company will make available a free video product, hurting the launch of Google Video. Finally, Google will release far fewer services this year, disappointing investors, as the company realizes it must go through a consolidation phase in which it makes its existing services scale better.
14. Apple (AAPL) (and its iTunes) will not be immune from the problems facing Google as the music industry decides on new ways to control its distribution, just like in the good old days. In other Internet happenings: TiVo (TIVO) and NetFlix (NFLX) will merge and the China Internet Bubble will deflate.
15. Amidst the market's gloom and doom, Warren Buffett goes on a buying spree (which emphasizes acquisitions in old media and the real estate industry). Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) acquires Dow Jones & Company (DJ) after a proxy contest is instituted by some of the younger members of the Bancroft family. Buffett further expands his involvement in the real estate sector after buying Countrywide Credit and a troubled publicly held substandard mortgage originator.
16. The bitter differences between New York Attorney General Spitzer and Ken Langone get more heated and Langone announces his candidacy for the Republican nomination for governor in opposition to Democrat Spitzer. With corporate contributions to his candidacy breaking all-time records and the backing of AIG's (AIG) Hank Greenberg and Goldman Sachs' (GS) ex-chief John Whitehead, Langone narrowly defeats Spitzer in the general election. Langone resigns shortly into his governorship, saying he has made his point, and he directs Nassau County executive Thomas Suozzi to replace him.
17. Icahn means business this time with Time Warner (TWX). Enlisting Steve Case to run the company and Calpers (and two other large financial institutions provide the rest of the financing), he initiates a partial tender for one quarter of the company at $22/share during the second quarter of the year. Like the legendary cult movie Putney Swope, he swiftly gains control of the company's board of directors by the end of the third quarter. Towards year-end, Steve Case -- in concert with Microsoft (MSFT) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa) -- pays $18 billion for the AOL division of Time Warner.
18. Citigroup (C) begins to undo some of the acquisitions that occurred during the Weil regime. Smith Barney is spun off to shareholders.
19.Vice President Condoleeza Rice (see Surprise No. 2), seen as a force of honesty and integrity, emerges as the leading aspirant as the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008. Senator Hillary Clinton decides to bow out of the Democratic Presidential tussle. She and the other Democratic Presidential hopefuls uncharacteristically throw their early support for Indiana Senator Evan Bayh.
20. There are no further meaningful natural disasters, though a case of bird flu is believed to be found in Chinatown (New York City). It proves to be a false alarm.
21. Osama Bin Laden is found dead.
22. The hedge fund industry suffers outflows -- in marked departure from the last decade -- as the industry (similar to in the mid-1970s) fails to insulate investors from the bear market of 2006.
23. A large corruption scandal in Russia hits the emerging markets late in the year.
24. Japan's Nikkei -- oblivious to the chaos in other world markets -- continues to climb and briefly reaches the 20,000 level.
25. China's and India's economic growth continues apace but a furious debate regarding offshoring of IT and service jobs continues, sparking a round of legislative protectionist initiatives. As a result, trade tensions mount among the U.S., India and China.
eelmine kommentaar oli foorumi jaoks liiga pikk ja sellest sai artikkel :)
Vacon - tõusnud kindlalt ja pidevalt ja pole aastaid enam "odav" olnud, on aga oma ala turuliider maailmas ja müügitoode on huvitav, eeldan et tõuseb rahulikult edasi
Lännen Tehtaat - toodang suundub Venemaa turule ja sama sektori Soome firmadest odavam, protektiivne sektor
Rapala - ise ma küll kalamees ei ole. Mitu huvitavat ettevõtteostu, plaanib jatkata. Kuna turundusprobleeme oma sektoris ei ole võiks sortimendi laienemine toota sünergiat.